Food Supply is Made

Insecure by
Climate Change
Climate change as a cause of food insecurity

• food supply and food security will be severely threatened if little or no

action is taken to address climate change and the food system's
vulnerability to climate change.
• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the
extent of climate change impacts on individual regions will vary over time,
and different societal and environmental systems will have varied abilities
to mitigate or adapt to change.
• The negative effects from climate change will cause changes in global
weather patterns and cycles that will be both unpredictable and long
term. It is foreseen that the fishing industry will also experience significant
disruption, with salt water and fresh water fishing at risk.
• 
Climate change as a cause of food insecurity
• Negative effects of climate change include the continued rise of global temperatures,
changes in precipitation patterns, an increased frequency of droughts and heatwaves,
sea-level rise, melting of sea ice and a higher risk of more intense natural disasters.

• Future projections in global yield trends of both maize and wheat indicate a
significant decline; these declines can be attributed to the negative impacts of climate
change arising from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. In many parts of less
developed countries in Africa and Central America, maize is a key component in the
daily diet and plays a key role in achieving food security in those areas, with nearly
950 million metric tonnes consumed annually. Wheat also plays a central role in diets.
 With nearly 700 million metric tonnes consumed annually on a global basis, wheat
alone provides over 20 per cent of the world's calories and protein. 
Climate change as a cause of food insecurity
• To ensure food security for the predicted population of 9.6 billion people
by 2050 the FAO predicts that food production must increase by at least
60 per cent to meet the demand
• With yields declining, and demand for both the amount and quality of
food increasing (due to increased disposable income amongst developing
countries) intervention is a must.
• Population groups - especially the poor - are the most vulnerable in terms
of failing harvests, higher prices and malnutrition in the near future. This
multi-faceted crisis will only increase pressure in other areas of the world
to increase production, whilst basic living conditions in deprived areas
further decrease.  
Climate change as a cause of food insecurity
• We have to learn how we can adapt the food supply system at a global and
regional level in a relatively short amount of time, whilst at the same time,
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and our impact upon the environment.
• Countries in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Scandinavian countries, are
currently experiencing some positive effects from climate change in terms of
crop yields. This is due partly to the CO2 fertilisation effect where increased
amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere aid plant growth, but mostly
because low levels of warming extend the growth duration of mainly
perennial crops such as grass pastures, but reduce the duration of the staple
annual crops, such as wheat, maize and rice. However, these effects are not
permanent and will not balance the global negative effects of climate change.
Climate change as a cause of food insecurity
• a temperature rise of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius will generally mean a loss in yield
of a number of crop varieties, both in the tropical and the temperate regions.
An increase of 3 to 4 degrees later on in this century will have very severe
consequences for global food security and supply. However, it is remarkable
to see that the rice plant is coping a lot better with the changes than other
crops.
• need to combat the negative impacts of climate change on food security in
many different ways: by decreasing greenhouse emissions to reduce the
climate change that will occur; improving the resilience of the global food
system to climate change; and developing early warning systems that can
warn us in due time when nature is about to 'run wild'.

• Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL (2011). 

Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
. PNAS, 108(50) pp. 20260-64.