Estimation

and
Confidence Intervals
Student File
Week Three – Module Two

Continuous Improvement
 Black Belt/ Green Belt Training at Essex
Week One Week Two
5 Self-taught Modules Measure Phase
 1. Six Sigma Overview  Introduction
 2. Recognizing Improvement Opportunities  Clarify the Process/Product & Customer CTs
 3. Defining Opportunities in Sigma TRAC  Characterize the Defect
 4. Meet Minitab®  Determine Measure of Intended Function
 5. Data Collection and Analysis  Validate the Measurement System
 Evaluate Process Behavior
 Evaluate Process Capability
PROJECT
 Identify Potential Xs MANAGEMENT

Week Three Week Four

Analyze Phase Improve and Control Phases
 Introduction 1. Introduction
1. Estimation & CI 2. Determine Counteractions
2. Hypothesis Testing 3. Polynomial and Multiple Regression
3. Correlation and SLR 4. Fractional Factorial Designs
4. ANOVA 5. Robust Design (Static)
5. Basic DOE 6. Control Phase
LEADERSHIP VSM
6. Full Factorial Designs 7. Error-proofing
7. Verifying Xs Project Presentations 8. Summary Project Presentations

Week Five: Review Projects through Improve Phase

Superior Essex, Feb 2014 2 W2-8 Identify Potential Xs_Inst.ppt
Define
Define
1 Identify what’s important to the customer. Define project scope.

Measure
Measure
2 Determine what to measure (Y) and validate the measurement system.

3 Quantify current performance and estimate improvement target.

Analyze
Analyze
4 Identify causes (Xs) of variation and defects.

5 Provide statistical evidence that causes are real.

Improve
Improve
6 Determine solutions (ways to counteract causes) including operating
levels and tolerances.
7 Install solutions and provide statistical evidence that the solutions work.

Control
Control
8 Put controls in place to maintain improvement over time.

9 Provide statistical evidence that the improvement is sustained.

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 Part 1

Introduction to Estimation and

Confidence Intervals
 Statistical Inference

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 Two Methods of Inference

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 What is Estimation?

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 Estimating the Average Placement Time

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 How Good is the Estimate?

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 Confidence Interval Around the Estimate

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 Definition of Terms: On Following Slides

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 Sample Statistics

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 Point Estimate

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 Confidence Interval and Degree of Confidence

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 Part 2

Estimating a Population Mean

Large and Small Samples
 Probability Distribution of 

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 Distributions of Individuals and Averages

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 Estimating a Population Mean: Example

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 The Point Estimate

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 Critical Values for 95% Confidence

Degree of Confidence: 95%

a a
2 = 0.025 2 = 0.025

- Za Z=0 Za
2 2
- 1.96 CRITICAL 1.96
VALUES

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 Margin of Error

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 The 95% Confidence Interval

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 Confidence Limits for µ: Large Samples

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 Confidence Intervals for the Fabric Thickness
Example

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 Inferences about Population Means from Small Samples

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 Estimating a Population Mean from Small Samples

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 Estimating the Population Mean with Small Samples

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 Using Minitab® to obtain Confidence Intervals

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Workbook: Exercise2.1

Estimating a Population Mean

 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

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 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

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 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

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 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

0,741 cm

0,0048 cm

0,7362 cm 0,7458 cm

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 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

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 Exercise 2.1: Estimating a Population Mean

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 Aufgabe 2.1: Schätzen des Mittelwertes einer
Grundgesamtheit

26,9 Tage

0,96 Tage

25,94 Tage 27,86 Tage

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