Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings

St. Augustine, Trinidad & Tobago

June 25-30, 2007

History of Caribbean
Tsunamis
Christa G. von Hillebrandt-Andrade
Puerto Rico Seismic Network, UPRM

with major contributions from

Paula Dunbar
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)
World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics - Tsunamis
Paula.Dunbar@noaa.gov
 Caribbean Tsunami Data Sources
• Gusiakov, V., 2003. Historical Caribbean Tsunamis Database.
• Lander, J.F., L.W. Whiteside, and P.A. Lockridge , 2002, A Brief
History of Tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea, Science of Tsunami
Hazards, the International Journal of the Tsunami Society,
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, Vol. 20, No. 2, p. 57-94.
• National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)/World Data Center for
Sold Earth Geophysics, Boulder, Colorado, Tsunami Database,
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard
• O'Loughlin, Karen Fay, and James F. Lander, 2003, Caribbean
Tsunamis: A 500-Year History from 1498-1998. Kluwer Academic
Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. In cooperation with the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
(CIRES, University of Colorado).
• Singer, A., C. Rojas, and M. Lugo, 1983, Inventario Nacional de
Riegos Geologicos, Estado Preliminare, Caracas: Fundacion
Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismologicas (FUNVISIS), Serie
Tecnica 03-83, Caracas, 128 pp.
• McCann, William R., 2006, Estimating the threat of tsunamigenic
earthquakes and earthquake induced-landslide tsunami in the
Caribbean, Carribean Tsunami Hazard, Proceedings of the NSF
Caribbean Tsunami Workshop, March 30-31, 2004, Editors A.
Mercado-Irizarry and P. Liu, World Scientific Publishing Co.,
Singapore, p. 43-65.
• Molina, E., 1997, Tsunami Catalogue for Central America, 1539-
1996, for Reduction of Natural Disasters in Central America,
Earthquake Preparedness, and Hazard Mitigation, Technical Report
No. II 1-04, Institute of Solid Earth Physics, University of Bergen,
Bergen Norway, 87 p.
• Robson, G.R., 1964, An earthquake catalogue for the Eastern
Caribbean, 1530-1960, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, Vol. 54, No. 2, p. 785-832.
 Evidence for Tsunamis
• Seismic records
• Marigraph/Tide Gauge records
• Listings in catalogues, journals
• Media reports
• Personal/Oral
 Global Distribution
NGDC/WDC Historical Tsunami Database contains:
• 1700 Tsunami Source Events
– 77% Pacific Ocean, 7% Mediterranean Sea, 5% Indian Ocean (includes
Malaysia and part of Indonesia), 5% Caribbean Sea, 3% Atlantic Ocean,
3% Red Sea and Black Sea
• 9200 Tsunami Runup Locations
– 84% Pacific Ocean, 8% Indian Ocean (includes Malaysia and part of
Indonesia), 2% Atlantic Ocean, 3% Caribbean Sea, 2% Mediterranean
Sea, Red Sea and Black Sea <1%
• Tsunami Source Distribution
– 81% Earthquakes (includes earthquake-generated landslides), 10%
unknown, 5% Volcanoes, 3% Landslides, 1% combination
• Percentages are a result of the hazard and intensive
reconnaissance studies

Events Generating Tsunami Tsunami Runup Locations

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

Tsunami Events Causing
Deaths

190 source events from 744 - 2007

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

Tsunami Events with >5 meter
Runups

180 source events from 887 - 2007

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Caribbean Tsunami Sources
• Local Caribbean
Earthquakes = 71%

• Local Caribbean
Submarine and Land
Volcanoes = 18%

• Tele-tsunamis or
distant sources (e.g.
1755 Lisbon, 1883
Krakatau, 2004 Indian
Ocean) = 11%

• Submarine Landslides
= 0%
 Known Historical Record
NOAA/NGDC Historical Tsunami Database

• Global Historic Tsunami Database -

– Source event (time, location, magnitude)
– Runup locations where tsunami waves were observed
(water heights, arrival times, wave periods)
– Damage, deaths, injuries from the source and the tsunami
• Variety of Data Sources
– Tide Gauge Observations, Reconnaissance Reports
– Data catalogues: Tsunami, Earthquake, Volcano, Storms
– Journal articles, Newspaper reports, Ship’s Logs, Diaries,
Personal Accounts

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Validities of Tsunami Reports
• Tsunami Event Validities
– High (validity 3-4)
• recorded on seismograph and tide gauge
• prior to instrumental recordings – Reported by many reliable
and independent sources
• many reports of deaths, damage, and observations of waves
in many locations
– Low (validity 0-2)
• reported to be earthquake-caused, but not listed in local
earthquake catalogs
• prior to instrumental recordings, described by only one
source
• meteorologically caused

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Examining the Historical Tsunami
Record
• Tsunami source events affecting the Caribbean were
reviewed for accuracy
– Check original sources
– Crosscheck with earthquake catalogs
– Crosscheck with hurricane catalogs
• Events were selected for further examination
– Not meteorologically caused
– Validity 3 or 4
– Runup not flagged as doubtful or meteorologically caused
– All dates were included - 1690 Virgin Islands earliest report

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Examining the Historical Tsunami Record--
continued
• Count tsunami events affecting each country
– Bin tsunami events based maximum measured runup
• 0.01 m ≤ runup ≤ 0.5 m
• 0.5 m < runup ≤ 1.0 m
• 1.0 m < runup ≤ 3.0 m, and
• 3.0 m < runup
• Tsunami event could be counted in several countries
– 1755, 1867, 1918, 1946, etc.
• Although not a vulnerability or risk assessment
– Examine the severity of tsunamis by counting total number of deaths
and dollar damage due to tsunamis in each state

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Caribbean Tsunamis Fatalities
1692 to the present

Puerto Rico, 1918

Dominican Republic 142 deaths
1946 (2 events), 1865 deaths

US Virgin Islands
1867, 30 deaths
Haiti, 1842
300 deaths

Jamaica, 1692
2000 deaths Martinique, 1902
100 deaths

Venezuela, 1853
Costa Rica Panama, 1882
1991, 2 deaths 100 deaths 113 deaths

Total Deaths: 4652

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

 Tsunami Event Runups,
Total number of Runups, and Deaths
# Events # Events # Events # Events
# Events with with with with Total #
Country with any measured measured measured measured of #
(year of first confirmed observed max runup max runup max runup max runup observa- Reported
report) runup 0.01<0.5m 0.5<1.0m 1.0<3.0m >3.0m tions Deaths
Caribbean
Antigua & Barbuda (1755) 6 2 2 1 8
Barbados (1755) 5 1 1 1 5
British Virgin Islands (1867) 3 1 1 1 5
Costa Rica (1991) 1 1 10 2
Cuba (1755) 3 7
Dominica (1755) 4 1 1 1 4
Dominican Republic (1755) 5 1 1 2 10 1865

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

Grenada (1867) 2 1 1 3
Guadeloupe (1867) 7 2 3 1 21
Haiti (1755) 6 1 18 300
Honduras (1856) 1 1 5
Jamaica (1692) 2 2 14 2000
Martinique (1755) 7 1 1 1 7 100
Montserrat (1997) 4 2 1 4
Netherlands Antilles (1755) 2 1 2
Panama (1882) 4 3 18 100
Puerto Rico (1867) 9 3 2 2 1 33 142
Saint Kitts & Nevis (1690) 2 2
Saint Lucia (1867) 2 2 2
Saint Martin (1755) 1 1 1
Saint Vincent & the
Grenadines (1755) 3 1 1 1 4
Trindad & Tobago (1911) 2 2
US Virgin Islands (1690) 7 1 1 1 2 15 30
Venezuela (1530) 6 3 23 113
Caribbean Totals 94 11 14 20 18 224 4652
Tsunami Runups from Distant
Sources

Cuba

Dominican
Republic
Netherlands
US Antilles
Virgin
Islands
Haiti Dominica

Antigua &
Guadeloupe
Puerto Barbuda
Rico

Martinique

Venezuela
St Vincent &
Barbados
Grenadines

Panama

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

1755 Lisbon Earthquake
• Mw 8.75-9
• Travel Time @ 6-7 hours
• Areas w/ Runup
– Saba 6.4-7.6 m
– Martinique 4.6 m (drop)
– Antigua 3.7 m
– Barbados (Carlisle Bay) 6.1 m
– Samaná Bay, Dom. Rep. 3.7
m
– Santiago, Cuba “completely
inundated”
• No reports
– Puerto Rico
– Virgin Islands
Tsunami Runups in the Caribbean from
Local and Regional Sources

Puerto
Rico

Haiti US Virgin Guadeloupe

Cuba Islands
Dominican
Republic

Courtesy of Paula Dunbar, 2007

British Antigua &
Virgin I Barbuda

Jamaica Netherlands
Antilles
St Kitts
Honduras Dominica
& Nevis
Venezuela
Montserrat Martinique
Costa
Panama St Lucia
St Vincent &
Rica Barbados
Grenadines

Grenada

Trinidad &
Tobago
November 18, 1867 USVI Earthquake and Tsunami
Isoseismal map of the Puerto Rico
earthquake of October 11, 1918

R-F Intensity Scale Modified after Reid and Taber, 1919

1918 Tsunami
Tsunami Runups 1918 Tsunami
• Maximum Water Height:
• Valid values: .01 to 525 The maximum water height above sea level
in meters for this event. It is the height the tsunami reached above a
reference level such as mean sea level but it is not always clear
which reference level was used. If the type of measurement is a:
• Tide Gauge - half of the maximum height (minus the normal tide)of a
tsunami wave recorded at the coast by a tide gauge.
• Deep Ocean Gauge ? half of the maximum height (minus the
normal tide) of a tsunami wave recorded in the open ocean by a
seafloor bottom pressure recording system.
• Runup Height - the maximum elevation the wave reaches at the
maximum inundation.
• Description of Number of Deaths from the
Tsunami:
– Valid values: 0 to 3 When a description was found in
the historical literature instead of an actual number of
deaths, this value was coded and listed in the Deaths
D column. If the actual number of deaths was listed,
a descriptor was also added for search purposes.
– 0 = None
– 1 = Few (~1 to 50 deaths)
– 2 = Some (~51 to 100 deaths)
– 3 = Many (~101 or more deaths)
 Paleotsunami Deposits,
Aguada (630 ybp)
Source: Juan Carlos Moya and Aurelio Mercado
 Pre Historic Tsunamis?

8,000 ybp disturbance

References
Hubbard D., Ramírez W., Davis A., Lawson G., Oram J., K Parsons., Cuevas D. and Del Coro M.
(2004) A preliminary model of Holocene coral-reef development in the Enriquillo Valley, SW
Dominican Republic. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 36, No. 5, p.
313.
Cuevas D., Ramírez W., Del Coro M., and Hubbard D. (2004) Assessment of the response of a
Holocene fossil coral reef to high sediment input: Implications to modern trends of reef
degradation in high sedimentation environments. Geological Society of America Abstracts with
Pre historic tsunamis?
What is today’s risk from
tsunamis?