Epidemics

IDS 564, Prof. Ali Tafti

1
 Discussion items
• Measures
• Contact network
• Difference between spread of disease and spread of ideas?
• Decision making involved in ideas
• Perhaps susceptibility is more predictable with ideas.
• Different models for transmission
• How to impact R0: reduce p (how?), reduce k (how?).

2
21.2 The branching processes
Simplest model of contagion

3
Basic Reproductive Number (R0)
R0 = p k

Everyone meets k new people,

and infects each with probability
p.

Claim:
If R0 < 1, then with probability 1, the
disease dies out after a finite
number of waves. If R0 > 1, then with
probability greater than 0 the disease
persists by infecting at least one
person in each wave.

Easley and Kleinberg (2010), fig. 21.1, p. 5704

 21.3 The SIR
Epidemic Model
Susceptible, Infectious, Removed

5
SIR model stages:

1) [S]usceptible
2) [I]nfectious
3) [R]emoved

Easley and Kleinberg (2010), fig. 21.2, p. 573 6

Easley and Kleinberg (2010), fig. 21.3, p. 574 7
“Understanding how specific types of network structure
interact with disease dynamics remains a challenging research
question, and one that affects predictions about the course of
real epidemics.”

-- Easley and Kleinberg (2010, p. 575)

8
 Percolation:
A node v will become infected during the
epidemic if and only if there is a path to v from
one of the initially infected nodes that
consists entirely of open edges.

Percolation; bold arrows represent open edges: Easley and Kleinberg (2010), fig. 21.4, p. 576
9
21.4 The SIS Epidemic Model
Susceptible, Infectious, Susceptible…

10
Easley and Kleinberg (2010), fig. 21.5, p. 577 11
 12
Easley and Kleinberg (2010)
 1) [S]usceptible
2) [I]nfectious
SIRS Epidemic 3) [R]emoved

Model 4) [S]usceptible

13
21.5 Synchronization

14
 Instructor’s note: The
meaning of c is covered
in the session on small-
world networks.

15
Easley and Kleinberg (2010)
Easley and Kleinberg (2010)

16
Easley and Kleinberg (2010)

17