CORRELATION VS.

CAUSATION
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc:
“With this, therefore because of this”
 CORRELATION
• A relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical
variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on
the basis of chance alone.

• In other words, if two properties/events are correlated, this simply means when one
changes, the other tends to change in a consistent manner.

• Examples:
• The correlation of brain size and intelligence
• Researchers have found a direct correlation between smoking and lung cancer.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/correlation
 CAUSATION
• Cause:
• Something or someone that produces an effect, result, or condition : something or
someone that makes something happen or exist.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cause
• Effect:
• A change that results when something is done or happens : an event, condition, or state
of affairs that is produced by a cause
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/effect

• Examples:
• The act of decapitation will cause a person’s death.
• Gravity causes objects to fall downwards.
 CORRELATION VS. CAUSATION

• Just because two events or properties are correlated (linked) does not mean
that one causes the other.

• Going to the hospital is positively correlated with dying, but it is obvious

that going to the hospital does not cause you to die.

• The more firefighters at a fire is positively correlated with the amount of

damage done to the building, but firefighters do not cause more damage.
 CORRELATION VS. CAUSATION
• It is very difficult to say definitively that one thing causes another, but here are some tools you
can use:

• If the cause is taken out, does the effect still occur to the degree that it would have if
the cause was present?

• Could there be any other causes that could contribute to the effect?

• Example: Smoking causes lung cancer.

• Do those who don’t smoke have the same chance of getting lung cancer as those who do? (No)
• Could something else cause lung cancer? (Yes)

• Here we could say that smoking probably contributes to lung cancer, but is not the only cause. (Asbestos,
pollution, etc…)
 REVERSE CAUSATION
• Occurs when the cause and effects of a situation is confused or reversed.

Belief: XY (X causes Y)

Reality: YX (Y causes X)
 CONFOUNDING RELATIONSHIP

• Occurs when two events/measurements are Summer

correlated and the assumption is made that one
causes the other; however, there is a “lurking”
variable that is actually contributes to the
occurrence of both events/measurements.

Belief: XY (X causes Y) Ice Cream Polio

Reality: ZX & ZY (Z causes both X and Y)
 IS THERE A FLAW?

• A study from the University of Pennsylvania, published in the May 13, 1999 issue of Nature
, that found babies younger than 2 years old who slept with a light on were at increased risk
of developing myopia - nearsightedness - later in childhood.
• In the current study of 1,220 children, Ohio State University researchers found no
association between nighttime lighting and the development of nearsightedness. It didn't
matter if the child had slept in a dark room, with a night light on or in a fully lit room.
What the researchers did find, however, was a strong link between nearsighted parents and
nearsighted children.
• The researchers noticed that nearsighted parents were more likely to use a nightlight in their
child's room. "We think this may be due to the parents' own poor eyesight," Zadnik said.
Also, Zadnik said her study found that genetics plays a significant role in causing myopia.

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/nitelite.htm
 OVERSIMPLIFICATION
(MULTIPLE CAUSES)
• This fallacy occurs more often than the others in the media. You may have heard of
statements like: “You will do better at work/school if you have a good breakfast”.
While this may be true on average, there are many causes that contribute to
increased performance such as preparation, motivation, good health, etc

Belief: AZ (A causes Z)

Reality: AZ & BZ & CZ & DZ & EZ etc…
(Many factors cause Z)
 BIDIRECTIONAL CAUSE
• When two events are a result of bidirectional causation,
one event causes another while the other event causes
the first.

Investment Savings

Belief: XY (X causes Y)

Reality: X↔Y (X causes Y and Y causes X)
 COINCIDENCE
Belief: XZ
Reality: YZ
• Many times the fact that two events are correlated (linked) is pure coincidence and there is
no causal relationship that exists between the two. Take the following graph as an example.
Can we say that oil imports from Venezuela cause people to eat more corn syrup?
 IDENTIFY THE FALLACY

1. Lockdown is causing COVID-19 to spread. Reverse Causation

2. Movement of windmills causes Cyclones. Confounding Relationship

3. Carrying raincoats and umbrella causes rains. Reverse Causation

4. Students with a tutor have lower than average GPAs. So tutors must cause bad grades.
Reverse Causation

5. Reading subtitles in movies makes a person better painter. No Causation

REAL LIFE EXAMPLES
ERRONEOUS CONCLUSIONS?
 SUPERSTITIONS
• Black Cats cause ill omen

• Bad luck to trim your finger or toenails after dark

• Whistling indoors supposedly leads to financial problems in Russia.

• According to Hungarian and Russian superstitions, sitting at the corner of the table is bad luck. The
unlucky diner will allegedly never get married.

• Breaking a mirror will result in seven years of bad luck.

• According to German superstition, toasting someone with water means wishing death.
 WAYS TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY

• Hypothesis Testing

• A/B/n Testing

• Random Testing

• Rational thinking
THANK YOU