Electricity

U.S. electricity generation and share from selected fuels and

renewable sources
U.S. electricity generation from selected fuels U.S. renewable electricity generation, including end use
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case
billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
2020 2020
6,000 2,500
history projections history projections
5,000
2,000
36% natural gas
4,000 solar
renewables
40% nuclear 47% wind
1,500 geothermal
3,000 coal
hydroelectric
21% 42% 16% other
2,000 1,000 46%
34%
19%
1,000 11% 41%
500 2% 2%
19% 11%
0 34% 13%
22222222222222222222222222222222222222222 7% 4%
0
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
11111111112222222222333333333344444444445

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. electricity demand
U.S. electricity use growth rate, U.S. electricity use by end-use sector
three-year rolling average AEO2021 Reference case
AEO2021 economic growth cases billion kilowatthours
percentage growth
2020 2,000
5% history projections onsite
1,600 generation
4%
High purchased
3% 1,200
Economic electricity
Growth
2% Reference 800
Low
1% Economic 400
Growth
0%
0
-1%

2020

2020
2050

1990
1990

2050

1990

1990
2020
2050

2020
2050
-2%
residential industrial
commercial transportation

Note: Onsite generation is electricity produced onsite for own use.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. electricity generation levels from selected fuels and
renewable sources
U.S. electricity generation, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case
billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
2020 2020 2020
3,000 history projections 3,000 3,000 projections
projections
2,500 renewables 2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500 1,500

natural gas
1,000 1,000 1,000
coal
500 nuclear 500 500

0 0 0
1111111111222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222
9999999999000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
9999999999000000000011111111112222222222333333333344444444445 11111111112222222222333333333344444444445 11111111112222222222333333333344444444445
Note: Renewables category includes electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. electricity generation levels from selected fuels and
renewable sources
U.S. electricity generation, AEO2021 renewables cost cases
Reference case Low Renewables Cost case High Renewables Cost case
billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
2020 2020 2020
3,000 history projections 3,000 3,000 projections
projections
2,500 renewables 2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500 1,500

natural gas
1,000 1,000 1,000
coal
500 nuclear 500 500

0 0 0
1111111111222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222
9999999999000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000
9999999999000000000011111111112222222222333333333344444444445 11111111112222222222333333333344444444445 11111111112222222222333333333344444444445
Note: Renewables category includes electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. retiring and new generating capacity
Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements
AEO2021 Reference case
gigawatts
2020
60 history projections
50
additions
40
30 solar
20 wind
other
10 oil and natural gas
0 nuclear
-10 coal
-20
retirements
-30
-40
-50
-60

Source: Form EIA-860M, Monthly Update to the Annual Electric Generator Report, July 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. cumulative retiring and new generating capacity
Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (2021–2050)
AEO2021 selected cases
gigawatts
1,400 additions
1,200
1,000 solar
657 wind
800 563 385 oil and
435 206
600 natural gas
105 237 121 nuclear
400 114 200
other
375 2 253 6 466 2 297 446 2 coal
200
0 94 97
26 23 21
Reference case Low Oil and High Oil and Gas Low Renewables High Renewables
Gas Supply case Supply case Cost case Cost case

0 -29 -64 -14 -58 -26

-49
-111 -91 -59 -48
-107
-128
-52 -120
-58 retirements
-200

-400

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Electricity prices by components and long-term average
electricity prices
Components of U.S. Electricity Prices U.S. average electricity price
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 selected cases
2020 cents per kilowatthour 2020 cents per kilowatthour
12 2020
12
history projections
10
3.25 11 Low Oil and
3.34 3.48 Gas Supply
8 3.40 distribution
High Renewables
1.35 transmission Cost
6 1.51 10
1.58 Reference
1.54
generation Low Renewables
4 Cost
9 High Oil and Gas
5.83 5.42 4.99 4.68 Supply
2

0 8
2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Hybrid versus stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy
storage systems
U.S. solar PV generating capacity, all sectors U.S. storage energy capacity, power sector
AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case
gigawatts billion kilowatthours

600 0.25
hybrid solar PV, power sector hybrid storage
stand-alone solar PV, end use stand-alone storage
500 stand-alone solar PV, power sector 0.20

400
0.15
300
0.10
200
0.05
100

0 0.00

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
 Northeast

Renewable capacity by source and region West

PJM
Mid-Continent
Total renewables capacity in all sectors, 2019 and 2050 CAISO
Southeast
AEO2021 selected side cases
gigawatts ERCOT

Northeast PJM Southeast Mid-Continent ERCOT CAISO West

400
solar photovoltaic, power sector stand-alone energy storage
350 solar photovoltaic, end use other
300 onshore wind hydro
offshore wind
250
200
150
100
50
0
History

History

History

History

History

History
Reference

Reference
HOGS
Reference

Reference

Reference

History

Reference

Reference
HOGS

HOGS

LOGS

HOGS

LOGS

HOGS

HOGS

LOGS

HOGS
LC

HC

LC

LC

LC

LC
LOGS

LOGS

LOGS

LOGS
HC

HC

LC

HC

HC

LC

HC

HC
HC: High Renewable Cost; LC: Low Renewable Cost; HOGS: High Oil & Gas Supply; LOGS: Low Oil & Gas Supply; other: geothermal, biomass, municipal waste

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
 Economic cost competitiveness of generating technologies
Levelized avoided cost of electricity (LACE) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by technology,
2026 online year, AEO2021 Reference case
2020 dollars per megawatthour
CCGT wind PV regions with built
$100 $100 $100
$80 $80 $80 capacity
levelized avoided cost of electricity

$60 $60 $60

$40 $40 $40 regions with no
$20 $20 $20 built capacity
$0 $0 $0
$0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100

coal nuclear Economically attractive builds are shown above

$100 $100
$80 $80 the diagonal breakeven line for each technology.
$60 $60
$40 $40 The solid, colored circles on the figure indicate
$20 $20 that projects tend to be built in regions where
$0 $0 revenue (LACE) exceeds costs (LCOE)
$0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100

levelized cost of electricity

Note: CCGT = natural gas combined cycle, PV = solar photovoltaic

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. renewable portfolio standards
Total qualifying renewables generation required for combined state renewable portfolio standards and
projected total generation from compliant technologies
AEO2021 Reference case
billion kilowatthours
2,500
additional projected generation
required compliant generation
2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. nuclear capacity and annual capacity changes
U.S. nuclear electricity generating capacity Year-over-year nuclear capacity changes
AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases AEO2021 Reference case
gigawatts gigawatts
2020 2020
120 history projections 2 history projections additions

0
100
Low Oil and -2 retirements
80 Gas Supply
-4
Reference assumed uprates
60
-6 new reactors
actual or announced retirements
40 High Oil and -8
Gas Supply projected retirements

20 -10

-12
0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. coal-fired generation, capacity, and capacity factors
U.S. electric generating U.S. total electricity U.S. capacity factor for coal-fired generation
capacity generation AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases percentage
gigawatts billion kilowatthours
2020 2020
350 history projections 4,000 100% history projections
300 Low Oil and Gas Supply 80%
coal-fired ca- Reference 3,000
250
pacity High Oil and Gas Supply
60%
200
2,000
150 40% Low Oil and Gas Supply
100 coal-fired Reference
generation 1,000 High Oil and Gas Supply
20%
50

0 0 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. coal-fired generating capacity relative to natural gas prices
U.S. electric generating capacity Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric
AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases power sector
gigawatts 2020 dollars per million British thermal units
2020
350 history projections
$28
300 Low Oil and Gas supply
coal-fired capacity Reference $24
High Oil and Gas supply
250
$20
200
$16
150 natural gas prices $12
100 $8
50 $4

0 $0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
Coal production by U.S. region
U.S. coal production by region, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases
Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case
million short tons million short tons million short tons
2020 2020 2020
1,400 1,400 1,400
projections 1,200 projections projections
1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000 1,000

800 800 800

600 600 600

total
400 400
400 West
Appalachia200
200 Interior 200
0
0 0

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo
U.S. fossil fuel-fired plant capacity factors
Capacity factor for U.S. fossil fuel-fired plants
AEO2021 Reference case
percentage
2020
100% history projections

80% new combined cycle (natu-

ral gas)
coal
60% existing combined cycle
(natural gas)
oil and natural gas steam
40% combustion turbine
(natural gas)
20%

0%

Note: New combined-cycle (natural gas) plants are assumed to come online in 2023. New builds as shown are multi-shaft combined-cycle
units. Existing combined cycle units include both multi-shaft and single-shaft; 12 gigawatts of new single-shaft combined-cycle units are
included in existing.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021) www.eia.gov/aeo