The impacts of land use/land

cover change and climate

variability on the hydrology of
the Sahel

Gil MAHE
IRD – Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
HydroSciences Montpellier Laboratory
HSM
Tenth of million people are living at the
southern margin of the Sahara desert,
the Sahel.
Water resources variability is naturally
very high, but quick changes occurred
since the beginning of the drought in
the 1970’s.

Aim of many studies at IRD:

Improve our knowledge of the
mechanisms related to the
rainfall/runoff relationships,
especially in Sahel.
 Mm per year

250
750 Sub-desertic limit
1 rainy season
Sahel South Sahel limit
Tropical humid

2 rainy seasons

Sub Equatorial

Equatorial

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL IN AFRICA

 Content

Climate Change in Sahel

Impact on River Regimes
River Modeling in Sahel
LUCC in Sahel
Time varying WHC
Conclusions
Rainfall decrease is generalised
over the whole West and Central
Africa.
 1951-1969
1970-1989

1500

Rainfall decrease since 1970

 Rainfall decrease over the Sahel is
particularly strong.
We updated to 2002 an annual
index for the Sahelian zone (sligthly
extended to the northern Sudanian
zone) from the data of 21 raingauge
stations (from which at least 3 have
data since 1896)
 Indice de pluie

-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975

Sahelian rainfall index 1980

1985
1990
1995
2000
•Since 1970, and abruptly, the mean
characteristics of climate have changed, and the
1980’s drought paroxysm seems to be the
strongest negative anomaly of the new 36 years
long rainfall series (1970-2005)

•Many climate models show predictions for still

decreasing rainfall in Sahel during the XXIst
century

•The « new » climate of Sahel since 36 years

is it the beginning of the changes predicted
by the climate models for the future ?
Impact on River Regimes
 Long term
discharges variability
in 4 regions

Tropical humid
Equatorial
Sahelian
1.5 Congo at Brazzaville
Standardized runoff

0.5

-0.5

-1.5

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Years
 Rainfall and runoff coefficient 1955 - 1995
3.00 7.00
R ainfall R unoff C oeff. 6.00
2.00

Runoff Coefficient %
5.00
Rainfall std. index

1.00 4.00
0.00 3.00
2.00
-1.00
1.00
-2.00 0.00
555759616365676971737577798183858789919395
Y e ars

Nakambe at Wayen - Burkina-Faso 20 800 km²

 Synthèse

RC – 62 %
P – 16%
Dry
Humid RC + 108%
Dry P – 19% Humid

Annual rainfall Douna

750 mm 605
1044 Wayen

Hydrological paradox in Sahel

Hydrologie : bilan des apports en eaux douces à l’Atlantique
Niger river network

Mali
Niger

n a
r ki
Bu

Right bank tributaries to the Niger river,flowing from

Burkina-Faso to Niger and crossing the border
 610

750 mm
Annual rainfall
CE + 61 %
P – 19 %

760 720

CE – 35 % CE 0 %
P – 14 % P – 15 %
 Changes of runoff coefficients from North to South Sahel
River Gauging Climate Run. Coef. Run. Coef. Ratio aft/bef Rainfall ratio
Station Before 1972 After 1972 1972 aft/bef 1972
% % % %
Nakambe Wayen Sahelian 1.4 2.9 108 –19
Gorouol Koriziena Sahelian 4.5 8.8 95 –18
Gorouol Dolbel Sahelian 6.6 8.6 32 –20
Gorouol Alcongui Sahelian 1.6 2.2 40 –18
Dargol Tera Sahelian 6.2 8.4 37 –20
Dargol Kakassi Sahelian 3.9 6.2 57 –19
Sirba Garbe Kourou Sahelian 2 3.2 61 –17

Goroubi Diongore Sahelian 2.3 2.3 0 –13

Diamangou Tamou Sahelian 3.5 2.3 –35 –14
Tapoa Campement W Sudano- 0.9 1 10 –14
Guinean
Mékrou Barou Sudano- 11.5 7.3 –37 –8
Guinean
Bani Douna Sudano- 15.8 6 –62 –16
Guinean
 30 Débit

Number of stations .

standard deviation .
Rainfall and runoff
25 Pluie 2
Burkina-Faso 20 1

- Niger 15
0
10
-1
5
0 -2
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993

Rainfall Year
Runoff
30

standard deviation .
3

Number of stations .

Rainfall and runoff

25
2
20
1
15 0
10 -1

South 5
0
-2
-3
Mauritania 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988
Year
Burkina-Faso After 1972

- Niger

After 1972

South Mauritania

Changing in hydrological regime in Sahel

 441 mm

CE + 37 %
P – 20 %

605 mm

CE + 108%
P – 19%
Climatic and anthropogenic factors ?
River modeling in Sahel

Example of the Nakambe river in

Burkina-Faso
Not possible to increase the
runoff when the precipitation
decreases
 Rainfall/Runoff Modelling
• Conceptual models like GR2M
GR2M : Makhlouf & Michel, 1994
WBM : Water Balance Model, Vörösmarty et al., 1989
Yates : Yates 1997

P
RPE= f(PE)
R direct
X1 Total
Runoff
Delayed runoff
WHC X2
Gridded data sets 0.5°x0.5 °

• 1 rainfall gridded data set : CRU

• 1 PE gridded data set : CRU/ Penman
• 1 WHC gridded data set : from
FAOmax values (FAO Soil Map of the
World)(Dieulin et al., this conference)
•Improving rainfall/runoff modelling in Sahel :
using a time varying WHC

• 3 main land-cover considered :

– Bare soils
– Cultures
– Natural Vegetation

• Using remote sensing data for periods after

1970, and aerial photographies before 1970, in
order to compare LUCC over long time periods
LUCC in Sahel
Examples of soil surface degradation in Sahel

500 mm Former grazing

area
Former cultivated
area, near a plateau
Former cultivated
area, near a river

600 mm 700 mm
Decrease in natural vegetation between years 1965 et 1995 (%)
Nakambe river – Burkina Faso
Increase in cultivated surfaces between years 1965 et 1995 (%)
Nakambe river – Burkina Faso
Increase in bare soils between years 1965 et 1995 (%)
Nakambe river – Burkina Faso
- The transformation of land-use change into
change in WHC is done according to
experimentations results of runoff coefficients
measurements over several types of
environments : bare soils, fallows, cultures,
natural vegetation, mixed areas..

- These results showed a reduction of the

infiltration –then of the WHC- when runoff
increased, together with the degradation of
the natural vegetation in Sahelian areas.
 Run. Coef. 13 to 18% 20 to 25% 50 to 55%

Year Natural Cultivated Bare Soil

Vegetation
Initial 100% 0% 0%
values
1965 43 % 53 % 4%

1975 34 % 58 % 8%

1985 15 % 75 % 10 %

1995 13 % 76 % 11 %

Land Use / Land Cover Changes in the Sahelian basin

of the Nakambe river
between year 1965 and 1995
 Initial state
Xo% Date To
Natural
Vegetation Zo%
Yo% Bare soils
cultures (or degraded)
WHCo
Water Holding Capacity (WHC) initial

Modification of the WHC due to

Modifications of land-cover under anthropogenic and climatic pressures
Final State
X% de Date T
Végétation Zo%
Y% de naturelle Bare soils
culture (or
degraded) WHC
Water Holding Capacity (WHC) modified
 KrVg KrVg 
WHC =  x% + y% + z%  WHCO
 KrC KrSn 
 Year WHC
reduction
Initial 0%
values
1965 0%
1975 - 23 %
1985 - 57 %
1995 - 62 %

Water Holding Capacity evolution

over the Nakambe basin
between years 1965 and 1995
 How to « create » an annual evolution between between years
of images available ?
study of Pierre Diello in Burkina-Faso

1972 1984 1986 2002 2003

? ? ?
Using a population model, based on
1 B demographic data, to detemine which is
the most probable population evolution
2 curve.
3
A Relationship between population density nd
LUCC gives annual estimated values of
changes in LUCC and thus in WHC
To T
Using time-varying WHC data
rather than
time-fixed WHC data
improves the
river modelling performances
(Nash Index)
 Nash indexes File
source Modified
Fixed
WHC WHC

Model Precip. WHC Calib. Val. Calib. Val.

% % %
GR2M %

CRU FAO 50.6 37.0 + 16.7 + 26.2

D&W 64.5 47.7 + 4.7 +10.6

IRD FAO 52.3 36.8 +20.2 +26.9

D&W 67.7 48.9
+4.5 +9.3
Conclusions
Two different problems in Sahel :
• population increase
• climate change

• Population increase begins prior to

climate change, during the 1960’s
 increase of the human pressure on land
• Climate change starts beginning of the
1970’s (or late 1960’s)
 aridification of the land cover

Both factors converge toward an increase

and intensification of Land Use and an
accelerated degradation of the Land Cover
Major impacts of LUCC in Sahel :
Decrease of :
• Natural vegetation and potentially cultivated areas
• Fallow areas and duration (up to disappearance)
• Crop yields and soil quality

Increase of :
• Cultivated areas and bare soils
• Cattle breeding
• Runoff coefficient
• Suspended matter fluxes
• Dam silting

Changes of :
• River Regimes characteristics (normals for construction)
• Distribution of diseases’ vectors
 Precipitations Groundwater level

Precipitations and Groundwater level variability

over the Nakambe basin
Increase of groundwater level in the endoreic basins
of the Niamey area (Niger Republic)