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POA02 - Presentation Final Assignment
POA02 - Presentation Final Assignment
POA02 - Presentation Final Assignment
ANALYSIS
POA02
ANDI ADAM AZWARDANI 2301974010
ANISA DWI KARTIKASARI 2301975436
AZHAR FADHILAH KARTADARMA 2301973550
KENNY RAMIS 2301974055
LUKMAN AHMAD 2301973216
BINA NUSANTARA
2022
01
FORECASTING
Time Series
Product: Stool Chair Moving Average
02
AGGREGATE
PLANNING
Zero Inventory Plant
FORECASTI Constant Workforce Plan
NG
AGGREGAT
03
E PLANNING BILL OF
MATERIAL
Assembly Chart
Product Structure
BILL OF
MATERIAL
MPS & MRP
04
MPS & MRP
Master Production Schedule
DRP/ LOT Material Requirement
Planning
SIZING
Operation
05
Scheduling LOT SIZING
Silver-Meal Heuristic
Least Unit Cost
06
Operation Scheduling
Machine Scheduling
Employee Scheduling
No. Period Sales CMA dt bar Seasonal Forecast Error MSE ABS Error % Error MAPE MAD Bias TS
Jan-18 26736
FORECASTING
1 25920.83 1.03 26554 -182 33124.00 182 0.68 0.68 182.00 -182 -1.00
2 Feb-18 24012 26126.97 0.92 24335 323 68726.50 323 1.35 1.01 252.50 141 0.56
3 Mar-18 25958 26364 26333.10 0.99 25810 -148 53119.00 148 0.57 0.87 217.67 -7 -0.03
4 Apr-18 28974 26547 26539.23 1.09 28738 -236 53763.25 236 0.81 0.85 222.25 -243 -1.09
5 May-18 26140 26767 26745.36 0.98 26253 113 45564.40 113 0.43 0.77 200.40 -130 -0.65
Time Series
6 Jun-18 27651 26947 26951.49 1.03 27610 -41 38250.50 41 0.15 0.67 173.83 -171 -0.98
7 Jul-18 25112 27095 27157.63 0.92 25295 183 37570.29 183 0.73 0.67 175.14 12 0.07
8 Aug-18 26858 27291 27363.76 0.98 26820 -38 33054.50 38 0.14 0.61 158.00 -26 -0.16
9 Sep-18 29714 27519 27569.89 1.08 29854 140 31559.56 140 0.47 0.59 156.00 114 0.73
10 Oct-18 27122 27751 27776.02 0.98 27264 142 30420.00 142 0.52 0.59 154.60 256 1.66
11 Nov-18 28789 27980 27982.15 1.03 28666 -123 29029.91 123 0.43 0.57 151.73 133 0.88
12 Dec-18 26274 28194 28188.29 0.93 26255 -19 26640.83 19 0.07 0.53 140.67 114 0.81
13 Jan-19 27999 28565 28394.42 0.99 27830 -169 26788.54 169 0.60 0.54 142.85 -55 -0.39
14 Feb-19 30787 28781 28600.55 1.08 30970 183 27267.14 183 0.59 0.54 145.71 128 0.88
15 Mar-19 28974 28958 28806.68 1.01 28276 -698 57929.60 698 2.41 0.66 182.53 -570 -3.12
16 Apr-19 29873 29127 29012.81 1.03 29721 -152 55753.00 152 0.51 0.65 180.63 -722 -4.00
17 May-19 27159 29295 29218.95 0.93 27215 56 52657.88 56 0.21 0.63 173.29 -666 -3.84
18 Jun-19 28840 29320 29425.08 0.98 28840 0 49732.44 0 0.00 0.59 163.67 -666 -4.07
19 Jul-19 31629 29503 29631.21 1.07 32086 457 58107.00 457 1.44 0.64 179.11 -209 -1.17
20 Aug-19 29101 29750 29837.34 0.98 29288 187 56950.10 187 0.64 0.64 179.50 -22 -0.12
21 Sep-19 30788 29935 30043.47 1.02 30777 -11 54243.95 11 0.04 0.61 171.48 -33 -0.19
22 Oct-19 28392 30171 30249.61 0.94 28175 -217 53918.73 217 0.76 0.62 173.55 -250 -1.44
23 Nov-19 29765 30392 30455.74 0.98 29850 85 51888.57 85 0.29 0.60 169.70 -165 -0.97
24 Dec-19 32811 30556 30661.87 1.07 33202 391 56096.58 391 1.19 0.63 178.92 226 1.26
25 Jan-20 30205 30774 30868.00 0.98 30299 94 54206.16 94 0.31 0.61 175.52 320 1.82
26 Feb-20 31609 30929 31074.13 1.02 31833 224 54051.15 224 0.71 0.62 177.38 544 3.07
27 Mar-20 29478 31317 31280.27 0.94 29135 -343 56406.63 343 1.16 0.64 183.52 201 1.10
28 Apr-20 30544 31543 31486.40 0.97 30860 316 57958.39 316 1.03 0.65 188.25 517 2.75
29 May-20 34749 31749 31692.53 1.10 34318 -431 62365.38 431 1.24 0.67 196.62 86 0.44
30 Jun-20 31337 31886 31898.66 0.98 31311 -26 60309.07 26 0.08 0.65 190.93 60 0.31
31 Jul-20 32639 32150 32104.79 1.02 32889 250 60379.74 250 0.77 0.66 192.84 310 1.61
32 Aug-20 30163 32399 32310.93 0.93 30095 -68 58637.38 68 0.23 0.64 188.94 242 1.28
33 Sep-20 31862 32553 32517.06 0.98 31871 9 56862.94 9 0.03 0.62 183.48 251 1.37
34 Oct-20 35992 32790 32723.19 1.10 35434 -558 64348.26 558 1.55 0.65 194.50 -307 -1.58
35 Nov-20 32108 32929.32 0.98 32323 215 63830.46 215 0.67 0.65 195.09 -92 -0.47
36 Dec-20 33823 33135.45 1.02 33945 122 62470.83 122 0.36 0.64 193.06 30 0.16
37 Jan-21 33341.59 31055
38 Feb-21 33547.72 32881
39 Mar-21 33753.85 36550
40 Apr-21 33959.98 33334
41 May-21 34166.11 35001
42 Jun-21 34372.25 32015
43 Jul-21 34578.38 33891
44 Aug-21 34784.51 37666
45 Sep-21 34990.64 34346
46 Oct-21 35196.77 36056
47 Nov-21 35402.91 32975
48 Dec-21 35609.04 34901
Level 25,714.702
Trend 206.132
S1 1.024
S2 0.931
S3 0.980
S4 1.083
S5 0.982
FORECASTING
Moving Average
No. Period Sales Forecast MA2 Error MSE ABS Error % Error MAPE MAD Bias TS
1 Jan-18 26736
2 Feb-18 24012
3 Mar-18 25958 25374 584 341,056.000 584 2.250 2.250 584.000 584 1.000
4 Apr-18 28974 24985 3,989 8,126,588.500 3,989 13.768 8.009 2,286.500 4,573 2.000
5 May-18 26140 27466 -1,326 6,003,817.667 1,326 5.073 7.030 1,966.333 3,247 1.651
6 Jun-18 27651 27557 94 4,505,072.250 94 0.340 5.357 1,498.250 3,341 2.230
7 Jul-18 25112 26896 -1,784 4,240,232.250 1,784 7.102 5.706 1,555.300 1,558 1.001
8 Aug-18 26858 26382 477 3,571,368.917 477 1.774 5.051 1,375.500 2,034 1.479
9 Sep-18 29714 25985 3,729 5,047,664.929 3,729 12.550 6.122 1,711.714 5,763 3.367
10 Oct-18 27122 28286 -1,164 4,586,068.813 1,164 4.292 5.893 1,643.250 4,599 2.799
11 Nov-18 28789 28418 371 4,091,799.056 371 1.289 5.382 1,501.889 4,970 3.309
12 Dec-18 26274 27956 -1,682 3,965,363.375 1,682 6.400 5.484 1,519.850 3,289 2.164
13 Jan-19 27999 27532 468 3,624,744.545 468 1.670 5.137 1,424.182 3,756 2.637
14 Feb-19 30787 27137 3,651 4,433,195.021 3,651 11.857 5.697 1,609.708 7,407 4.601
15 Mar-19 28974 29393 -419 4,105,684.712 419 1.446 5.370 1,518.115 6,988 4.603
16 Apr-19 29873 29881 -8 3,812,425.536 8 0.025 4.988 1,410.214 6,980 4.950
17 May-19 27159 29424 -2,265 3,900,127.850 2,265 8.338 5.211 1,467.167 4,716 3.214
18 Jun-19 28840 28516 324 3,662,930.859 324 1.123 4.956 1,395.719 5,040 3.611
19 Jul-19 31629 28000 3,630 4,222,362.588 3,630 11.475 5.339 1,527.118 8,669 5.677
20 Aug-19 29101 30235 -1,134 4,059,165.903 1,134 3.895 5.259 1,505.250 7,536 5.006
21 Sep-19 30788 30365 423 3,854,942.908 423 1.374 5.055 1,448.289 7,959 5.495
22 Oct-19 28392 29945 -1,553 3,782,708.575 1,553 5.468 5.075 1,453.500 6,406 4.407
23 Nov-19 29765 29590 175 3,604,037.929 175 0.588 4.862 1,392.619 6,581 4.726
24 Dec-19 32811 29079 3,733 4,073,470.580 3,733 11.376 5.158 1,498.977 10,314 6.880
25 Jan-20 30205 31288
26 Feb-20 31609 31508
27 Mar-20 29478 30907
28 Apr-20 30544 30544
29 May-20 34749 30011
30 Jun-20 31337 32647
31 Jul-20 32639 33043
32 Aug-20 30163 31988
33 Sep-20 31862 31401
34 Oct-20 35992 31013
35 Nov-20 32108 33927
36 Dec-20 33823 34050
37 Jan-21 32966
38 Feb-21
39 Mar-21
40 Apr-21
41 May-21
42 Jun-21
43 Jul-21
44 Aug-21
45 Sep-21
46 Oct-21
47 Nov-21
48 Dec-21
FORECASTING
Conclusion
TS MA2
MAPE 0.64 5.158
MAD 193.06 1,498.977
MSE 62470.83 4,073,470.580
Tracking Signal 0.16 6.880
AGGREGATE PLANNING
Zero Inventory Plant
Number of Number of Units Forecast Net Minimum Number of Number Number Number of Units Cumulative Cumulative Ending
Period
Working Days Produced per Worker Demand Workers Required Hired Fired Produced Production Demand Inventory
30
Jan-21 22 62 31055 499 469 0 31104 31104 31,055 49
Feb-21 20 57 32881 581 82 0 32923 64027 63,936 91
Mar-21 23 65 36550 561 0 20 36558 100585 100486 99
Apr-21 22 62 33334 535 0 26 33348 133933 133820 113
May-21 23 65 35001 538 3 0 35059 168992 168821 171
Jun-21 24 68 32015 471 0 67 32028 201020 200836 184
Jul-21 25 71 33891 479 8 0 33929 234949 234727 222
Aug-21 23 65 37666 578 99 0 37666 272615 272393 222
Sep-21 22 62 34346 552 0 26 34408 307023 306739 284
Oct-21 23 65 36056 554 2 0 36102 343125 342795 330
Nov-21 23 65 32975 507 0 47 33039 376164 375770 394
Dec-21 25 71 34901 493 0 14 34920 411084 410671 413
Total 6348 663 200 2,572
AGGREGATE PLANNING
Constant Workforce Plan
Component
No Level Description Code Quantity Units
1 .1…… Assembly 3 A-3 1 Piece
2 ..2…. Assembly 2 A-2 1 Piece
3 …3.. Assembly 1 A-1 1 Piece
4 ….4.. Sub Assembly SA-1 1 Piece
1
Sub Sub
5 …..5. Assembly 1 SSA-1 1 Piece
6 ……6 Seat S 1 Piece
7 ……6 Hinge H 1 Piece
8 …..5. Back Rest BR 1 Piece
9 ….4.. Big Bolt BB 8 Pieces
10 …3.. Chair Bar CR 1 Piece
11 ..2…. Small Bolt SB 4 Pieces
Sub Assembly
12 .1…… 2 SA-2 1 Piece
Sub Sub
13 ..2…. SSA-2 1 Piece
Assembly 2
14 …3.. Gas Lift GL 1 Piece
15 …3.. Ring Lid RL 1 Piece
16 ..2…. Chair Base CB 1 Piece
MPS & MRP
Master Production Schedule
MPS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period Past Due
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
MS 34,191 34,543 33,128 33,305 35,538 35,617 36,162 35,321 36,863 36,895 38,412 38,721
PORel 34,191 34,543 33,128 33,305 35,538 35,617 36,162 35,321 36,863 36,895 38,412 38,721
MPS & MRP
Material Requirement Planning
J J J
o o o
b b b
Job 3 23 13 W/C 4 Job 1 5 Job 2 4 3
Job 4 15 14
Job 5 12 15 138
Optimal 1 5 2 4 3
Step 2
Jobs W/C 1+2 W/C 3+4 W/C 1 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 1 31 42 W/C 2 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 2 25 40 W/C 3 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 3 38 21 W/C 4 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 4 32 36
Job 5 21 26 131
Optimal 5 2 1 4 3
Step 3
Jobs W/C 1+2+3 W/C 2+3+4 W/C 1 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 1 55 63 W/C 2 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 2 42 53 W/C 3 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 3 46 36 W/C 4 Job 5 Job 2 Job 1 Job 4 Job 3
Job 4 54 53
Job 5 32 35 131
Optimal 5 2 1 4 3
Operation Scheduling
Employee Scheduling JANUARI
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 Worker Needed
Monday In Off Off In In In In 23
Tuesday In In Off Off In In In 23
Wednesday In In In Off Off In In 23
Thursday In In In In Off Off In 23
Friday In In In In In Off Off 23
Saturday Off In In In In In Off 22
Sunday Off Off In In In In In 22
Total Worker 499 159
Operation Scheduling
Employee Scheduling DESEMBER
Data from Total Worker Working Days Worker
Aggregate Planning 493 25 28
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 Worker Needed
Monday In Off Off In In In In 20
Tuesday In In Off Off In In In 20
Wednesday In In In Off Off In In 20
Thursday In In In In Off Off In 20
Friday In In In In In Off Off 20
Saturday Off In In In In In Off 19
Sunday Off Off In In In In In 19
Total Worker 493 138