Seminar

Aims & Objective

Introductio
Literature Review
Conclusions
Methodology

Foundation
Theoretical

n
Outbreak of COVID19 Analysis in
Nepal

Presented By:
Binayak Acharya
192806
12th Dec 2021
MCIS-IV
 Introductio
Literature Review

Aims & Objective

Methodology
Conclusions

Introduction
Foundation
Theatrical

• One of the major challenges of the world

• Present Status of Covid 19 in World (269,993,930) (5,317,965)
• Outbreak in late December 2019
• Fifth pandemic after 1918 Flu Pandemic
• Study aimed to predict preventive behavior of covid-19 according to
protection Motivation Theory

Research Question
RQ 1. What are the short-term predictions for number of cases in Nepal for the
next 2-3 weeks based on the current situation?
RQ 2. What is the temporal relationship among multiple phenomena?
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 Aims And Objective

• To analyze and visualize the data of state from Nepal.

Aims & Objective

Introductio
Methodology
• To predict the spread of Covid19 ahead of time to
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
take preventive measures.

• To provide estimates of basic measures of the

infectiousness and severity of Covid19.

• To investigate the predictive ability of simple

mathematical models and provide simple forecasts
for the future incidence of Covid19 in Nepal.

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 Literature Review
• Hamzaha et al (2020) worked on CoronTracker: World-wide
Covid19 Outbreak Data analysis and Prediction.
Kraichat discussed the influencing factors of covid19 spreading
in Thailand where he stated the situation of covid19 and spread

Aims & Objective

Introductio
including influencing factors of spreading and control

Literature Review
Limitations
Methodology

• Many Solutions have been designed to control the covid19

Theoretical
Motivation

pandemic, including forecasting and decision-making solutions.

Implementation and analysis of deprived results
• Many researchers had utilized machine learning techniques
along with spark-based linear models, Multilayer Perceptron
and Long short-term memory with a two-stage cascading
platform to enhance the prediction accuracy in different
datasets.

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 Theoretical Foundation

Literature Review
Literature Review

Introductio
• Machine Learning
Conclusions
Methodology

Foundation
Theoretical
• Data Visualization Features and Classification
• Research Methods and Techniques applied

5
 Machine Learning

Literature Review
Literature Review

Introductio
• Field of study that gives computer capability to learn
Methodology
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
without being explicitly programmed.
• Types (Supervised, Unsupervised , semi-supervised,
Reinforced Learning )
• Clustering an Unsupervised Learning used in the
research
• k-means is one of the oldest and most approachable.
These traits make implementing k-means clustering in
python reasonably.

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 • VAR
Vector Autoregression forecasting algorithm: used
when two or more time series influence each other which
means the relationship between the time series involved is
bi-directional.
• Prophet

Literature Review
Literature Review

Introductio
Prophet : procedure for forecasting times series data
Methodology
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
based on additive model where no-linear trends are fit
with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday
effects.

• Why Prophet and VAR Used ?

This method is implemented in this project in order to
find out the future outcomes of covid19 cases in Nepal.
These two methods are useful in predicting timeline series of
data. From that we will be able to find out the future positive
cases, deaths, and preventive cases of Nepal. Since both
methods are useful for forecasting timeline series.

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 Research Methods and Techniques applied

Literature Review
Literature Review

Introductio
• Fact Finding Techniques (data uploaded in Official
Conclusions
Methodology

Foundation
Theoretical
Nepal site)
• Modelling Technique Tools (Visio for gant)
• Programming Tools (Jupyter Lab---Integrated
development environment)

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 Conclusions

Methodology

• Project Methodology
• Research Methodology

Methodology
Theoretical
Foundation
9

Literature Review

Introduction
 Research Methodology

Literature Review

Introduction
Methodology
Covid-19 in
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
Nepal

RQ 1. What are the short-term predictions for number of cases

in Italy for the next 2-3 weeks based on the current situation?

• The time series forecasting has been done using prophet

method and VAR method.

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 Literature Review

Introduction
Methodology
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
RQ 2. What is the temporal relationship among multiple
phenomena?
Different analysis and visualization are done in order to see the
relationship between different variables.

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 Conclusions
Project Methodology

Fig : Dynamic System Development Methodology

Methodology
Theoretical
Foundation
12

Literature Review

Introduction
 Dynamic System Development Methodology

Literature Review

Introduction
Methodology
Conclusions

Foundation
• It is agile code development approach that provides a framework

Theoretical
for building and maintaining systems.
• Helps frequent requirement changes and focus on early delivery to
provide real benefits to the business.
• Consist of a practice called Time boxing; lasts for 2-6 weeks. If we
allocate the Time box as 2 weeks and put the requirement in 1st
Time box, 1-month deliverable of functional system is possible.
Hence, DSDM is appropriate.
• Follows iterative Development.

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Conclusions

Aims & Objective

Introduction
Literature Review
• Exploratory Data Analysis for various column is done.

Methodology
Conclusions

Foundation
Theoretical
• Machine learning algorithm are used.
• Provide an interesting insight for data analysis.
• Future predictions for outcome of cases are done.

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References

Alsunaidi, S. J., Almuhaideb, A. M. & Ibrahim, N. M., 2020. Applications of Big Data Analytics to
Control Covid19 pandemic. Applications of Big Data Analytics to Control Covid19 pandemic, Volume
I, pp. 1-24.

DSouza, J. & Senthil , V. S., 2020. Using Exploratory Data Analysis for Generating Inferences on the
Correlation of COVID-19 cases, Dubai: IEEE.

Hui, D. S. & Azhar, E. I., 2020. TThe continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to
global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. TThe continuing 2019-
nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus
outbreak in Wuhan, China, 91(1), pp. 264-266.

Khanam, A., Dar, . A. S., Wani, . A. . Z. & Kousar, . S., 2020. Healthcare Providers on the Frontline:.
Healthcare Providers on the Frontline: , xx(10), pp. 1-9.

Nazir, A. & Zafar, I., 2018. The Impact of Agile Methodology ( DSDM ) on Software Project. [Online]
Available at: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Impact-of-Agile-Methodology-(-DSDM-)-
on-Project-Zafar-Nazir/843733664dc56367e0c61a6a854a84b844798c45
[Accessed 26 May 2021].

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