Section - 3

Russia-Ukraine
Conflict
Here is where your presentation begins
Background
Ukraine

Ukraine, country located in eastern Europe, the second largest on

the continent after Russia. The capital is Kyiv (Kiev), located on
the Dnieper River in north-central Ukraine.

Ukraine is bordered by Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, the

Sea of Azov and the Black Sea to the south, Moldova and
Romania to the southwest, and Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland to
the west. In the far southeast, Ukraine is separated from Russia by
the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea.

2
Ukrainian demographics

Ukraine experienced several decades of rapid population growth

between 1950 and 1990 when its population was at its highest of
51.46 million people.

Since the 1990s, Ukraine’s population has been declining due to

high emigration rates, low birth rates, and high death rates. Many
people leave the country because Ukraine is the second-poorest in
Europe, is in conflict with Russia to its east, and is beset by
corruption.

The population is currently declining at a rate of 0.59%, a rate has

increased every year since 2015. The United Nations estimates
that Ukraine could lose nearly one-fifth of its population by 2050.
3
Russia

Russia, country that stretches over a vast expanse of eastern Europe and
northern Asia. Once the preeminent republic of the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.; commonly known as the Soviet Union),
Russia became an independent country after the dissolution of the Soviet
Union in December 1991.

Russia is bounded to the north and east by the Arctic and Pacific oceans,
and it has small frontages in the northwest on the Baltic Sea at St.
Petersburg and at the detached Russian oblast (region) of Kaliningrad (a
part of what was once East Prussia annexed in 1945), which also abuts
Poland and Lithuania. To the south Russia borders North Korea, China,
Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. To the southwest
and west it borders Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, and Estonia, as well as
Finland and Norway.

4
Russian Demographics

Between 1993 and 2008, Russia’s population saw a considerable decline in its
population from 148.37 million to 143.25. During this time, Russia
experienced low birth rates and abnormally high death rates. Since then, the
population has increased again to 145.93 million; however, the population is
expected to reach its peak at the end of 2020 and is projected to start declining
again.

Russia has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world of 1.58 births per
woman, which is also below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
Russia also has one of the oldest populations in the world with an average age
of 40.3 years. Further contributing to Russia’s population decline is a low level
of immigration.

5
History of Russia
Ukraine relations
Russia and ukraine became independent countries after the split of soviet union
in 1991. Although they became independent , they are one of the most culturally
similar countries in the world. Both the countries share the same cultural ties.
Both the countries have majority religion as christianity . Also the russian and
the ukrainian language also have similar roots so people from both russia and
ukraine can understand each other’s language perfectly. The relations between
ukraine and russia were like brothers until 2010

6
Souring of Russia Ukraine relations

One of cause of the bittering of Russia-Ukraine relations was “Orange

revolution” which was organized in 2004.

In autumn 2004 hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to

protest against an election result they believed had been rigged to favour a
candidate backed by Moscow.

Pro-western Viktor Yushchenko, whose campaign colours were orange, had

emerged as the frontrunner with a platform to crackdown on the oligarchic
economic system that had taken hold in the preceding decade, when state assets
were privatised.

7
But despite exit polls showing his victory, the election commission gave the
presidency to Viktor Yanukovych, former governor of the Donetsk region and
Putin’s preferred candidate.

A winter of protests on Kiev central square led to a vote rerun and the victory
of Yushchenko, who had been poisoned and permanently disfigured during
the campaign.

The Kremlin said the “Orange Revolution” was part of a plot by foreign
intelligence services — and a dress rehearsal for regime change in Russia
itself.

8
Ukraine and Nato : 2008

In 2008, as Ukraine’s new leaders worked on turning the country to face the
west, Yushchenko sought a Nato Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine,
a major step towards joining the alliance. The US supported the idea.

But by then, after Poland joined Nato in 1999, and the Baltic states, Bulgaria
and Romania in 2004, Putin viewed the transatlantic alliance expansion as a
smokescreen for attempts to contain Russia. He threatened to point nuclear
weapons at Ukraine should it proceed, describing the young democracy as “not
even a country” and a part of Russia.

9
As a result several Nato members stymied Washington’s push to grant Ukraine and Georgia
Nato MAPs. Instead, a promise was penned at a summit in Bucharest in April. “We agreed
today that these countries will become members of Nato,” the alliance said in a declaration.

By August, Russia was at war with Georgia. In the four-day invasion, Moscow seized two
breakaway territories, to foster the sort of conflict that would make it difficult for the
country to join Nato.

In 2010 in Kyiv, Yanukovych — a former prime minister — became president. He quickly

dropped Ukraine’s Nato bid, in a big concession to Moscow.

10
Euromaidan Protests : 2013-14

Despite their government’s close ties with Moscow, many Ukrainians continued
to see their future within Europe.

When, in 2013, the opportunity came to join the EU’s Eastern Partnership
programme — set up to bring Ukraine, among others, closer to the EU — it
found wide popular support in the country’s west, an opinion poll showed. But
many in the east preferred a customs union with Russia. Moscow was promoting
this union at the time, and was watching with concern as Ukraine prepared to ink
agreements with the EU.

Yanukovych backed out of the EU arrangement at the last minute, in favour of a

backdoor deal with Putin. The U-turn sparked the Euromaidan movement that
brought hundreds of thousands of protesters in Kiev central square.

11
The movement, which became known as the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, toppled
Yanukovych, who fled to Russia on February 21 2014.

The crimean Annexation : 2014

In late February, a few days after Ukraine's pro-Moscow president was

ousted from power, strange bands of armed gunmen began seizing
government buildings in Crimea. Some Crimeans held rallies to show
support for the ousted president and, in some cases, to call to secede from
Ukraine and re-join Russia. The bands of gunmen grew until it became
obvious they were Russian military forces, who forcefully but bloodlessly
brought the entire peninsula under military occupation. On March 16,
Crimeans voted overwhelmingly for their region to become a part of Russia.

12
Most of the world sees Crimea's secession vote as illegitimate for a few reasons: it
was held under hostile Russian military occupation with no international monitoring
and many reports of intimidation, it was pushed through with only a couple of
weeks' warning, and it was illegal under Ukrainian law. Still, legitimate or not,
Crimea has effectively become part of Russia. The US and European Union have
imposed economic sanctions on Russia to punish Moscow for this, but there is no
sign that Crimea will return to Ukraine.

13
Current scenario
The current Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky government is pushing up
their efforts to join NATO and european union with the backing of other NATO
member countries along with the USA. According to Kremlin , Ukraine joining
NATO would be the biggest security threat to the Russian Federation and
therefore Russia will have no choice but to forcefully stop Ukraine from joining
NATO.

Russia has gathered as many as 130,000 troops along parts of the Ukrainian border — an act of aggression that could spiral
into the largest military conflict on European soil in decades.

The Kremlin appears to be making all the preparations for war: moving more military equipment, medical units, even
blood, to the front lines. Against this backdrop, diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States and its allies have
not yet yielded any solutions.

14
Impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the World

Oil and gas

In the short term, it is widely acknowledged that a Russia-Ukraine war, even a
limited one, would spark a further massive rise in oil and gas prices, especially in
Europe.

Russia supplies about 30 per cent of Europe's oil and 35 per cent of its natural gas,
which would be cut off in the event of conflict.

Rabobank's energy analysts believe that could push oil prices up from already-
elevated levels of about $US90 a barrel to $US125, with gas prices following
higher.

15
Food and fertiliser

Other key commodities would also be hit by either war or sanctions, with Russia the world's biggest wheat grower
and Ukraine in around the top five. Large production of barley, corn, sunflower and rapeseed might also be
affected.

While other countries, including Australia, might be able to compensate for some of the loss in supply, they might
be facing a handicap: fertiliser.

Rabobank estimates 23 per cent of ammonia, 17 per cent of potash, 14 per cent of urea and 10 per cent of
phosphates are shipped from Russia.

16
Metals and manufacturing
Manufacturing supply chains also wouldn't be immune from either a
conflict or sanctions against Russia.

Russia's share of global nickel exports is estimated to be about 49 per cent,

palladium 42 per cent, aluminium 26 per cent, platinum 13 per cent, steel 7
per cent and copper 4 per cent.

"Removing half of global nickel exports for kitchenware, mobile phones,

medical equipment, transport, buildings, and power; palladium for catalytic
converters, electrodes, and electronics; and a quarter of aluminium for
vehicles, construction, machinery and packaging would result in huge
upside pressure on prices," Rabobank warned.

17
Financial markets
Rabobank predicts that either war or heavy sanctions could see a flight to safety on financial
markets, pushing bond prices up and interest rates lower.

This might be a compelling counterweight to the current trend towards rising interest rates
across many advanced economies.

However, the picture would be complicated by even higher inflation driven by the potential
commodity shortages outlined above.

18
Thank You
19