November 2020

GLOBAL
TERRORISM
INDEX
2020
Measuring the impact of
terrorism on the world
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01.
What is
the GTI?
The Global Terrorism Index

Ranks
Now in its

8year
th 163 99.7%
countries of world’s population
covered

Used as an Developed by the Data sourced from

indicator in the Institute for the START Global
Global Peace Economics and Terrorism Database
Index Peace – University of
Maryland

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02.
Results
Global Terrorism Index 2020

Key Findings
 Deaths from Terrorism fall by 15% for fifth consecutive year to 13,800

 ISIL core diminishes – first year where they caused less than 1,000 deaths since their inception

 Far-right terrorism increases 250% in last five years- from low base

 Deaths fall in the 4 countries with most deaths

 ISIL centre of gravity shifts to sub-Saharan Africa – 7 of 10 largest increases in SSA

 ISIL affiliates launch attacks in 27 countries

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Global Terrorism Index 2020

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The Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism, 2020 GTI
Afghanistan recorded the highest impact of terrorism for the second consecutive year.

AFGHANISTAN YEMEN
1 Rank change:
6 Rank change: 1

2 IRAQ
Rank change:
7 PAKISTAN
Rank change: 2

3 NIGERIA
Rank change:
8 INDIA
Rank change:

SYRIA
4 Rank change: 9 CONGO, DRC
Rank change: 1

5 SOMALIA
Rank change: 1
10 PHILIPPINES
Rank change: 1

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Key Findings, 2020 GTI
18,000

16,000 646
• Terrorism has been on a 444 86

downward trend since its peak 14,000 2,043

569 Somalia

DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

in 2014 592
593
Mali
12,000 Burkina Faso
1,245 Nigeria

• Terrorism deaths decreased by 10,000

7,379
15.5% between 2018 and 2019 8,000 5,725 Afghanistan

6,000

4,000
5,762
5,102 All other
2,000
countries

0
2018 2019

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Deaths from Terrorism by Country, 2019
Ten countries accounted for 80% of all deaths from terrorism in 2019

16,000

14,000
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
Afghanistan Nigeria Burkina Mali Somalia Iraq Democratic Yemen Syria Mozam Rest of the
Faso Republic of bique World
the Congo

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Countries – Decreases in Deaths from Terrorism in 2019
Afghanistan had the largest decrease in the number of deaths from terrorism, reversing a steady
increase in terrorism deaths since 2001

-102 -77 -75 -54

-200 -148
-243
-400
-401
C H A N G E IN D E A T H S

-600 -490

-800
-798
-1,000

-1,200

-1,400

-1,600

-1,800
-1,654

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Countries – Increases in Deaths from Terrorism in 2019
Deaths from terrorism in Burkina Faso increased six fold in 2019

600

507
500
CHANGE IN DEATHS

400

300 265

200 186
149 148
130
100
52 51 51 41

0
Burkina Faso Sri Lanka Mozambique Democratic Mali Yemen Niger Cameroon New Zealand Ethiopia
Republic of
the Congo
Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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The economic impact of terrorism, 2019
The total economic impact of terrorism in 2019 was over 26 billion dollars

Injuries; 1.1% GTI 2020

Property destruc- Country % of GDP
Rank
tion; 2.5%
Afghanistan 16.7% 1

Syria 3.4% 4

Nigeria 2.4% 3

Burkina Faso 1.9% 12

GDP losses; 35.2% Mali 1.9% 11

Somalia 1.2% 5
Deaths,
61.2% Iraq 1.1% 2

Yemen 1.0% 6

Sri Lanka 1.0% 20

Central African
0.9% 17
Republic
Source: IEP

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03.
Trends in
Terrorism
Deaths from terrorism, 2002-2019
Deaths from terrorism have decreased 59% since peaking in 2014

40,000
Rest of World
35,000 Afghanistan
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

Iraq
30,000 Nigeria
Europe and North America
25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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 Deadliest Terrorist Groups, 2002-2019
The Taliban were the deadliest terrorist group for the second consecutive year

35,000 10,000
All other groups Unknown Boko Haram Taliban ISIL
Boko Haram Al-Shabaab
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

ISIL Taliban Al-Shabaab

30,000
8,000

25,000

6,000
20,000

15,000 4,000

10,000
2,000
5,000

0 0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
20

20

20
20

20

20
20
20
20
20
20

20

20

20

20
20
20

20

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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 Deaths from terrorism by conflict type, 2002-2019
Over 96 per cent of deaths from terrorism occur in countries currently experiencing a conflict

30,000 8,000 2,000

WAR NON-CONFLICT
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

7,000 1,800
25,000 MINOR ARMED
CONFLICT 1,600
6,000
20,000 1,400
5,000
1,200
15,000 4,000 1,000

3,000 800
10,000
600
2,000
5,000 400
1,000
200
0 0 0
2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201
Source: UCDP ACD, START GTD, IEP calculations

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Trend in terrorism deaths by region, 2002-2019
In 2019, the number of terrorism deaths in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa exceeded deaths recorded in
MENA

15,000
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

sub-Saharan Africa
12,000

9,000

6,000

3,000

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2019
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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04.
The Shifting
Landscape
 Deaths from terrorism by decade, 2000-2019
The last decade was the deadliest on record with over 182,000 terrorism deaths, compared to 72,000 in the 2000s

200,000
Rest of the
180,000 9,968 World

DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

160,000 sub-Saha-
44,615 ran Africa
140,000

120,000

100,000 57,524 South Asia

80,000
11,901
60,000 7,612
40,000 21,968 Middle East
69,953 and North
Africa
20,000
30,381
0
2000s 2010s
Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Trend in ISIL-related terrorism deaths, 2013-2019
Since 2013, ISIL and affiliated groups have caused over 40,000 terrorism deaths

12,000
Affiliates Provinces
ISIL
10,000
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Number of countries recording ISIL-related attacks, 2013-2019
The number of countries recording terror attacks by ISIL-related groups has risen from two in 2013 to 27 in 2019

40

35
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES

30

25

20

15

10

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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 Regional distribution of ISIL-related terrorism deaths, 2013-2019
By 2019, less than a third of ISIL deaths from terrorism occurred in the MENA region

100%
% OF ISIL-RELATED TERRORISM DEATHS

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30% Middle East and North Africa

sub-Saharan Africa
20% South Asia
Rest of the World
10%

0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Terrorism and ecological threats
The six countries with the greatest increase in terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa face
medium to high exposure to ecological threats

GTI Increase in Number of Projected Population

Country In Conflict?
Terrorism Rank Ecological Threats Growth to 2050

Burkina Faso 1 Yes 2 108%

Mozambique 3 Yes 5 109%

Congo, DRC 4 Yes 2 117%

Mali 5 Yes 3 115%

Niger 7 Yes 3 171%

Cameroon 8 Yes 2 91%

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05.
Far-right Terrorism
& Political Violence
Far-right terrorism deaths and incidents in the West, 2002 - 2019
Although political terrorist incidents have increased in the last decade, the majority
of deaths from terrorism in the West came from religious terrorism

INCIDENTS DEATHS
120 250
Political
100
200 Religious
80
150
60
Political
100
40 Religious

50
20

0 0

Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Far-right terrorist incidents in the West, 1970-2019
Far-right terrorist incidents have increased 250 per cent over the past five years

60

50
TERRORIST INCIDENTS

40

30 Breivik attack
Norway

20

10

0
2019
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Far-right terrorist incidents in the West

250% Increase in far-right terrorist attacks

over the past five years

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Distribution of far-right incidents and deaths from terrorism by
country, 2002-2019
The US has recorded the largest number of far-right incidents and deaths in the West

INCIDENTS Other, DEATHS

9

Other, Canada,
33
Germany, 16
Sweden,
19
24
United States;
France,
113
25 New Zealand,
332 United States;
167 51 286
United Kingdom;
35

Germany,
48 Norway,
78

Five countries with the most incidents decreased in Positive Peace in the last two years

Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Terrorist Attacks by Ideology and Affiliation, 1970-2019
Sixty per cent of far-right attacks were carried out by individuals with no group affiliation

100%

90% Affiliated
% OF TERRORIST INCIDENTS

Unaffiliated
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Separatist Far-left Environmental Far-right Islamist

Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Mass Shootings and Terrorism in the US, 1982-2019
The proportion of mass shootings classified as terrorist attacks has been increasing

14
Terrorism
Not Terrorism 12

MASS SHOOTINGS
10

0
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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People who feel that violence is at least partially justified in
advancing political goals, U.S., 2017 – 2020
Both Democrats and Republicans are now much more likely to feel that violence for political ends is at least
partially justified
40%
Democrats Republicans
35%

30%
% RESPONDENTS

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
11/1/2017 10/1/2018 12/1/2019 6/1/2020 9/1/2020
Source: YouGov, Voter Study Group, Nationscape

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 Deteriorations in western attitudes

Group Quality of Fractionalised Political Press Equitable

Grievances Information Elites Democracy Freedoms Distribution

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06.
Systems
& Terrorism
Terrorist group survival, 2002-2019
Most terrorist groups disband, merge with other groups, or are destroyed within a year of
being formed

120

Active in 2002
100
TERRORIST GROUPS

80

60

40

20
Still Active in 2019

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Correlates of terrorism
Some factors are more strongly linked with terrorism in developing economies

GROUP GRIEVANCES VS GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX

ADVANCED ECONOMIES ( r = 0.25) REST OF WORLD ( r = 0.67)
5 5

4.5 4.5

4 4
GROUP GRIEVANCES

GROUP GRIEVANCES
3.5 3.5

3 3

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
IMPACT OF TERRORISM IMPACT OF TERRORISM
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Terrorist groups flourish when they can increase their influence
Terrorist groups need motivation, recruitment, funding, and media coverage to grow

Influence

Media Funding

Recruiting
Sympathisers

Mutual reinforcing feedback loops – all need disrupting simultaneously

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