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Decision Support Systems: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008, The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved
Decision Support Systems: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008, The Mcgraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved
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Learning Objectives
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Learning Objectives
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Case 1: Oracle Corporation and Others:
Dashboards for Executives and Business
Professionals: The Power and the Challenge
• The dashboard has become the CEO’s killer app.
• Dashboards provide key business information to
executives, managers, and business professionals.
• At GE executives use dashboard to follow the
production of everything from light bulbs to
dishwashers, making sure production lines are
running smoothly.
• Dashboards have some challenges. These tools can
raise pressure on employees, create divisions in the
office, and lead workers to hoard information.
• Dashboards can hurt the morale of employees.
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Case Study Questions
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Real World Internet Activity
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Real World Group Activity
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Information required at different
management levels
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Levels of Management Decision
Making
• Strategic management
– Executives develop organizational goals, strategies,
policies, and objectives
– As part of a strategic planning process
• Tactical management
– Managers and business professionals in self-directed
teams
– Develop short- and medium-range plans, schedules and
budgets
– Specify the policies, procedures and business objectives for
their subunits
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Levels of Management Decision
Making
• Operational management
– Managers or members of self-directed teams
– Develop short-range plans such as weekly production
schedules
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Information Quality
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Attributes of Information Quality
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Decision Structure
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Information Systems to support
decisions
Management Decision Support
Information Systems Systems
Decision Provide information about Provide information and
support the performance of the techniques to analyze
provided organization specific problems
Information Periodic, exception, Interactive inquiries and
form and demand, and push reports responses
frequency and responses
Information Prespecified, fixed format Ad hoc, flexible, and
format adaptable format
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Business Intelligence Applications
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Decision Support Systems
• DSS
• Provide interactive information support to managers
and business professionals during the decision-
making process
• Use:
– Analytical models
– Specialized databases
– A decision maker’s own insights and judgments
– Interactive computer-based modeling
• To support semistructured business decisions
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DSS components
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DSS Model base
• Model base
– A software component that consists of models used in
computational and analytical routines that
mathematically express relations among variables
• Examples:
– Linear programming models,
– Multiple regression forecasting models
– Capital budgeting present value models
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Management Information
Systems
• MIS
• Produces information products that support
many of the day-to-day decision-making needs
of managers and business professionals
• Prespecified reports, displays and responses
• Support more structured decisions
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MIS Reporting Alternatives
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Online Analytical Processing
• OLAP
– Enables mangers and analysts to examine and
manipulate large amounts of detailed and consolidated
data from many perspectives
– Done interactively in real time with rapid response
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OLAP Analytical Operations
• Consolidation
– Aggregation of data
• Drill-down
– Display detail data that comprise consolidated data
• Slicing and Dicing
– Ability to look at the database from different viewpoints
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OLAP Technology
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Geographic Information Systems
• GIS
– DSS that uses geographic databases to construct and
display maps and other graphics displays
– That support decisions affecting the geographic
distribution of people and other resources
– Often used with Global Position Systems (GPS)
devices
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Data Visualization Systems
• DVS
– DSS that represents complex data using interactive
three-dimensional graphical forms such as charts,
graphs, and maps
– DVS tools help users to interactively sort, subdivide,
combine, and organize data while it is in its graphical
form.
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Using DSS
• What-if Analysis
– End user makes changes to variables, or relationships
among variables, and observes the resulting changes in
the values of other variables
• Sensitivity Analysis
– Value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and
the resulting changes in other variables are observed
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Using DSS
• Goal-Seeking
– Set a target value for a variable and then repeatedly
change other variables until the target value is achieved
– How can analysis
• Optimization
– Goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target
variables given certain constraints
– One or more other variables are changed repeatedly
until the best values for the target variables are
discovered
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Data Mining
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Market Basket Analysis
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Executive Information Systems
• EIS
– Combine many features of MIS and DSS
– Provide top executives with immediate and easy access
to information
– About the factors that are critical to accomplishing an
organization’s strategic objectives (Critical success
factors)
– So popular, expanded to managers, analysts and other
knowledge workers
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Features of an EIS
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Enterprise Interface Portals
• EIP
– Web-based interface
– Integration of MIS, DSS, EIS, and other technologies
– Gives all intranet users and selected extranet users
access
– To a variety of internal and external business
applications and services
• Typically tailored to the user giving them a
personalized digital dashboard
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Enterprise Information Portal
Components
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Knowledge Management
Systems
• The use of information technology to help gather,
organize, and share business knowledge within
an organization
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Enterprise Knowledge Portals
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Case 2: Harrah’s Entertainment,
LendingTree, DeepGreen Financial, and
Cisco Systems:
• The promise of AI of automating decision making has been
very slow to materialize.
• The new generation AI applications are easier to create and
manage, do not require anyone to identify the problems or to
initiate the analysis, decision-making capabilities are
embedded into the normal flow of work, and are triggered
without human intervention.
• They sense online data or conditions, apply codified
knowledge or logic and make decisions with minimal human
intervention.
• But they rely on experts and managers to create and maintain
rules and monitor the results.
• Also, managers in charge of automated decision systems
must develop processes for managing exceptions.
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Case Study Questions
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Case Study Questions
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Real World Internet Activity
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Real World Group Activity
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Artificial Intelligence (AI)
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Attributes of Intelligent Behavior
• Think and reason
• Use reason to solve problems
• Learn or understand from experience
• Acquire and apply knowledge
• Exhibit creativity and imagination
• Deal with complex or perplexing situations
• Respond quickly and successfully to new situations
• Recognize the relative importance of elements in a
situation
• Handle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous
information
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Domains of Artificial Intelligence
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Cognitive Science
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Robotics
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Natural Interfaces
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Expert Systems
• ES
• A knowledge-based information system (KBIS)
that uses its knowledge about a specific,
complex application to act as an expert
consultant to end users
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Expert System Components
• Knowledge Base
– Facts about specific subject area
– Heuristics that express the reasoning procedures of an
expert (rules of thumb)
• Software Resources
– Inference engine processes the knowledge and makes
inferences to make recommend course of action
– User interface programs to communicate with end user
– Explanation programs to explain the reasoning process
to end user
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Expert System Components
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Methods of Knowledge
Representation
• Case-Based – knowledge organized in form of
cases
– Cases: examples of past performance, occurrences
and experiences
• Frame-Based – knowledge organized in a
hierarchy or network of frames
– Frames: entities consisting of a complex package of
data values
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Methods of Knowledge
Representation
• Object-Based – knowledge organized in network
of objects
– Objects: data elements and the methods or processes
that act on those data
• Rule-Based – knowledge represented in rules
and statements of fact
– Rules: statements that typically take the form of a
premise and a conclusion
– Such as, If (condition) then (conclusion)
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Expert System Benefits
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Expert System Limitations
• Limited focus
• Inability to learn
• Maintenance problems
• Developmental costs
• Can only solve specific types of problems in a
limited domain of knowledge
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Suitability Criteria for Expert
Systems
• Domain: subject area relatively small and limited to well-
defined area
• Expertise: solutions require the efforts of an expert
• Complexity: solution of the problem is a complex task that
requires logical inference processing (not possible in
conventional information processing)
• Structure: solution process must be able to cope with ill-
structured, uncertain, missing and conflicting data
• Availability: an expert exists who is articulate and
cooperative
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Development Tool
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Knowledge Engineer
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Neural Networks
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Fuzzy Logic
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Genetic Algorithms
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Virtual Reality (VR)
• Computer-simulated reality
• Relies on multisensory input/output devices such
as
– a tracking headset with video goggles and stereo
earphones,
– a data glove or jumpsuit with fiber-optic sensors that
track your body movements, and
– a walker that monitors the movement of your feet
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Intelligent Agents
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User Interface Agents
• Interface Tutors – observe user computer operations,
correct user mistakes, and provide hints and advice on
efficient software use
• Presentation – show information in a variety of forms
and media based on user preferences
• Network Navigation – discover paths to information and
provide ways to view information based on user
preferences
• Role-Playing – play what-if games and other roles to
help users understand information and make better
decisions
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Information Management Agents
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Case 3: IBM, Linden Labs, and Others: The
Business Case for Virtual Worlds in a 3D
Internet
• Second Life is a 3-D virtual world entirely built and owned by
its Residents.
• Since opening to the public in 2003, it has grown explosively
and today it is inhabited by more than eight million residents
from around the globe.
• It is catching the attention of many companies because of
it’s ability to use as a platform for a whole new Net with huge
opportunities to sell products and services.
• It is also possible to exchange Second Life’s currency,
called Linden dollars, for the real currency for a fee.
• Residents could thus build, own, or sell their digital
creations.
• Second Life has become a real economy.
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Case Study Questions
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Case Study Questions
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Real World Internet Activity
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Real World Group Activity
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