DAMBREAK ANALYSIS

1
Outline

• Introduction

• Running a dam break analysis

• Failure impacts assessment

• Emergency Action Planning

• Implications on TSF classification

• Summary and conclusions

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Introduction
What are dam breaks and why do we do them?

• Tailings dam failures can have catastrophic consequences and proactive planning can
reduce the consequences of failure

• Dam break assessments are an important part of developing safety controls

– Emergency Response Plans

• Currently a legislative requirement in most North American jurisdictions

• Results of the dam break assessment are used to determine the TSF classification
– Design implications in terms of freeboard, stability, and design storm and earthquake requirements

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Introduction
Overview of the process

1. Determine type of assessment (screening, intermediate, advanced)

2. Run a dam break analysis and map inundation extents

3. Use results to do a preliminary failure impacts assessment

4. Develop emergency action plans

5. Define consequence category / hazard classification and assess design implications

6. Design updates / checks

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Dambreak modelling
Types of assessments
When to use What it involves (ex.’s)
• As a first pass • Volume balance within
• “When there is little natural topography
Screening

doubt as to the • Drawing a line downstream

Initial /

population at risk” starting at 1/3 to ½ the height

• Sufficient when the of the embankment roughly
category is either low parallel to the slope of the
or extreme channel

• In-between • Cross-sections at critical

• Usually suitable for an locations (1D)
Intermediate
COMPLEXITY

FS-level • Manning’s equation to route

flow and develop inundation
map
• Newtonian flow

• It is necessary to • Very detailed modelling

Comprehensive

undertake a rigorous including multiple scenarios,

assessment of the detailed breach analysis,
dam break inundation physical modelling, contribution
zone of tributaries, off-site storages
• When a detailed risk • Recommend 2D analysis and
assessment is incorporating tailings rheology
required (non-Newtonian flow)

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Select critical breach location(s)

1
Estimate the volume of tailings
2 and water that will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Typically select one, most critical location which
Select critical breach has the highest potential for downstream impacts
1 location(s)
– Highest point in embankment
– Near operating pool
Estimate the volume of tailings – Point where infrastructure, social, or environmental
2 and water that will be released areas immediately downstream

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

TSF
Prepare inundation maps
5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Multiple breach locations
Select critical breach
1 location(s)

Estimate the volume of tailings

2 and water that will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5

8
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Cascading failures
Select critical breach
1 location(s)

Estimate the volume of tailings

2 and water that will be released

1985 failure at Stava, Italy 1985

Determine breach parameters
3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Unlike water dams, where a breach spanning the
Select critical breach location(s)
full height of the embankment will result in 100%
1 of the storage volume being released, tailings
dams will retain some solids due to the viscous
Estimate the volume of nature of the tailings.
tailings and water that
2 will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph E
X
A
M
Route the flood downstream Merrispruit, 1984: ~10% Bafokeng, 1974: ~25%
P
4 (1D or 2D modeling)
L
E
S
Prepare inundation maps
5

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Mount Polley, 2014: ~20% Samarco, 2015: ~60%
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Methods to estimate release volumes range from
Select critical breach location(s)
simple geometric assumptions to more complex
1
• Example 1: assumed final slope (suitable for
Estimate the volume of
tailings and water that screening-level only)
2 will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Methods to estimate release volumes range from
Select critical breach location(s)
simple geometric assumptions to more complex
1
• Example 2: empirical approximation (suitable as
Estimate the volume of
tailings and water that upper-limit check for screening-level to
2 will be released intermediate assessment)

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

~35% of stored
volume is
Prepare inundation maps released
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Source: Rico et al, 2007
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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Methods to estimate release volumes range from
Select critical breach location(s)
simple geometric assumptions to more complex
1
• Example 2: empirical approximation (suitable as
Estimate the volume of
tailings and water that upper-limit check for screening-level to
2 will be released intermediate assessment)

• Range of expected % failure volumes for tailings

Determine breach parameters
dams:
3 and assign hydrograph
– Lucia, 1981: 40%
– Rico et al, 2007: 35%
Route the flood downstream – Azam and Li, 2010: 20%
4 (1D or 2D modeling)

• 40% could be used as an upper limit check

Prepare inundation maps
5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Methods to estimate release volumes range from
Select critical breach location(s)
simple geometric assumptions to more complex
1
• Example 3: fault-tree analysis considering
Estimate the volume of
tailings and water that historical data and most likely failure mode (best
2 will be released practice)

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

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Source: Tocher et al, 2014
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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Breach parameters include:
Select critical breach location(s) • Geometry: width, height, shape
1 • Rate of expansion: constant, linear, non-linear

Estimate the volume of tailings • Breach parameters linked to failure mode:

2 and water that will be released • Hydrologic = overtopping
• Static / liquefaction= internal erosion / piping
Determine breach
• Seismic = overtopping (due to loss of freeboard), or
parameters and assign
3 hydrograph internal erosion/piping (seismic-induced foundation
liquefaction)

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

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overtopping piping

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Outflow, Q
Select critical breach location(s)
1 Peak outflow

Estimate the volume of tailings Detectable

2 and water that will be released movement /
erosion in
dam
Determine breach Erosion
parameters and assign
3
progressively
slows and
hydrograph stops as TSF
drains

Route the flood downstream Time

4 (1D or 2D modeling) Potential Breach formation time
warning time / (difficult to predict) –
breach breach has enlarged to its
initiation max size
Time to
Prepare inundation maps
5 peak

www.damsafety.org/media/Documents/FEMA/TS22_DambreachModeling/07_PRESENTATION.pdf
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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Numerous methods from simple geometry-based
Select critical breach location(s)
empirical equations to physical models
1
• Ex. of empirical relationships
Estimate the volume of tailings • Froehlich (1995,2008), Macdonald & Langridge-
2 and water that will be released Monopolis (1984), USBR (1982), Hagen (1982), SCS
(1981), Kirkpatrick (1977)…
Determine breach • Simple geometry-based relationships
parameters and assign • Xu & Zhang (2009), Walder & Connor (1997), Von
3 hydrograph Thun & Gillette (1990)
• Include embankment erodibility

Route the flood downstream

• Froehlich 2008 showed best correlation, even
4 (1D or 2D modeling)
over more complex, erosion-based models.
• Recommended (Wahl, 2009) as best choice
Prepare inundation maps today
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www.damsafety.org/media/Documents/FEMA/TS22_DambreachModeling/07_PRESENTATION.pdf
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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Numerous methods from simple geometry-based
Select critical breach location(s)
empirical equations to physical models
1
• Models
Estimate the volume of tailings • FLDWAV / SMPDBK / BREACH
2 and water that will be released • Developed in 1980’s by NWS using breach parameters
(originally based on Fread relationship)
Determine breach • FLO-2D
parameters and assign
3
• Have built-in levee breach simulator (physical-based model
hydrograph suitable for water dams only)
• Currently working on tailings dam specific tool (still in beta
version)
Route the flood downstream • HEC-RAS 5.0
4 (1D or 2D modeling)
• Physical simulation using sine function as default for breach
expansion (one of the first to adopt non-linear growth rates
as default)
Prepare inundation maps
5 • Some physical models tend to over-predict
formation time
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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Select critical breach location(s)

1 1D / channel flow only 2D flow

Estimate the volume of tailings

2 and water that will be released SMPDBK

Hec-RAS
Determine breach parameters
3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood

downstream (1D or 2D
44 modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5
Non-Newtonian flow 19
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Select critical breach location(s)

1 1D / channel flow only 2D flow

Estimate the volume of tailings

2 and water that will be released SMPDBK

Hec-RAS
Determine breach parameters
3 and assign hydrograph Dan-W

Route the flood Dambrk

downstream (1D or 2D
44 modeling)
FLDWAV

Prepare inundation maps

5
Non-Newtonian flow 20
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Select critical breach location(s)

1 1D / channel flow only 2D flow

Estimate the volume of tailings Hec-RAS 5.0

2 and water that will be released SMPDBK
Hec-GeoRAS

Hec-RAS
Determine breach parameters CHHE2D-Dambrk
3 and assign hydrograph Dan-W
Mike
Route the flood Dambrk 21
downstream (1D or 2D
44 modeling)
FLDWAV

Prepare inundation maps

5
Non-Newtonian flow 21
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence

Select critical breach location(s)

1 1D / channel flow only 2D flow

Estimate the volume of tailings Hec-RAS 5.0

2 and water that will be released SMPDBK
Hec-GeoRAS

Hec-RAS
Determine breach parameters CHHE2D-Dambrk
3 and assign hydrograph Dan-W
Mike
Dambrk FLO-2D 21
Route the flood
downstream (1D or 2D Dan-3D
44 modeling)
FLDWAV

Prepare inundation maps

5
Non-Newtonian flow 22
 • Note: tailings dam break flows, due to their high
sediment lows, are much more viscous than
Dambreak modelling conventional water dams
Modelling sequence – This means running a Newtonian flow model will
result in conservative arrival times but non-
conservative inundation extents
Select critical breach location(s)
1 1D / channel flow only 2D flow

Estimate the volume of tailings Hec-RAS 5.0

2 and water that will be released SMPDBK
Hec-GeoRAS

Hec-RAS
Determine breach parameters CHHE2D-Dambrk
3 and assign hydrograph Dan-W
Mike
Dambrk FLO-2D 21
Route the flood
downstream (1D or 2D Dan-3D
44 modeling)
FLDWAV

Prepare inundation maps

5
Non-Newtonian flow 23
Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Tailings flow characterized by rheology:
Select critical breach location(s) – Viscosity and yield stress relationships
1
• Flow impeded by surface roughness
Estimate the volume of tailings characterized by Manning’s n-values
2 and water that will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood

downstream (1D or 2D
44 modeling)

Prepare inundation maps

5

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Dambreak modelling
Modelling sequence
• Include flood inundation extents, arrival times,
Select critical breach location(s)
depths, and velocities and areas / infrastructure
1 at risk

Estimate the volume of tailings

2 and water that will be released

Determine breach parameters

3 and assign hydrograph

Route the flood downstream

4 (1D or 2D modeling)

Prepare inundation
5 maps

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Failure impacts assessment
Preliminary assessment – no controls in place

• Preliminary impacts assessment considering no controls in place

– PAR, environmental, economic, and social impacts

• Good understanding / mapping of downstream areas important to thoroughly identify and

assess risks and perform detailed consequence assessment
– Include environmentally significant areas, dwellings, villages, key infrastructure, etc
– Need to update regularly as new imagery/topography becomes available.

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Emergency Action Planning
• Prepare Emergency Action Plans (EAPs)
– Detail roles and responsibilities in event of a dam
break
– Ex guidelines: “Preparing a Dam Emergency Plan
(DEP) in British Columbia” (2016)
– Key parts:
– Map showing dam location and area downstream
– Evacuation area map estimation
– List of persons in immediate vicinity to be evacuated
– List and order of persons to notify if a problem is
discovered at the dam
– Other emergency service contacts
– Plan drawings of the dam showing pertinent design
details and information from the OMS manual for
reference
– Monitoring actions

• Reassess population at risk (PAR);

environmental, infrastructure, and economic
risks after controls are in place

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Hazard potential classification
…and design implications (from CDA guidelines)

• General rules of thumb for quantifying risks (from FEMA 2004):

– No loss of life is expected if:
– Depth of water (D) < 2 ft (0.6 m)
– D x average floodplain velocity (V) < 7 ft/s (2 m/s)

– Significant property damage is expected to occur when:

– D > 2 ft (0.6 m)
– D x V > 7 ft/s (2 m/s)
– “significant” damage means structures or facilities are uninhabitable or inoperable

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 Hazard potential classification
…and design implications (from CDA guidelines)
Incremental losses
Population at
Dam Class
Risk1 Loss of Life2 Environmental and Cultural Values Information and Economics

Minimal short-term loss Low economic losses; area contains limited

Low None 0
No long-term loss infrastructure or services

No significant loss or deterioration of fish

or wildlife habitat Losses to recreational facilities, seasonal
Significant Temporary only Unspecified Loss of marginal habitat only workplaces, and infrequently used transportation
Restoration or compensation in kind highly routes
possible

Significant loss or deterioration of

important fish or wildlife habitat High economic losses affecting infrastructure,
High Permanent 10 or fewer
Restoration or compensation in kind highly public transportation, and commercial facilities
possible

Significant loss or deterioration of critical Very high economic losses affecting important
fish or wildlife habitat infrastructure or services (i.e. highway, industrial
Very high Permanent 100 or fewer
Restoration or compensation in kind facility, storage facilities for dangerous
possible but impractical substances)

Extreme losses affecting critical infrastructure or

Major loss of critical fish or wildlife habitat
services (i.e. highway, major industrial complex,
Extreme Permanent More than 100 Restoration or compensation in kind
major storage facilities for dangerous
impossible
substances)
• Risks determined by dam break assessment
1
Definitions for population at risk:
None – There is no identifiable population at risk, so there is no possible of loss of life other than through unforeseeable misadventure
Temporary – People are only temporarily in the dam-breach inundation zone (i.e. seasonal cottage use, passing through on transportation routes, participating in recreational activities)
Permanent – The population at risk is ordinarily located in the dam-breach inundation zone (i.e. as permanent residents); three consequence classes (high, very high, extreme) are proposed to allow for more detailed estimates of

2
potential loss of life (to assist in decision-making if the appropriate analysis is carried out).
Implications for loss of life: 29
Unspecified – The appropriate level of safety required at a dam where people are temporarily at risk depends on the number of people, the exposure time, the nature of their activity, and other conditions. A higher class could be
appropriate, depending on the requirements. However, the design flood requirement, for example, might not be higher if the temporary population is not likely to be present during the flood season.
Hazard potential classification
…and design implications (from CDA guidelines)

• Classification has implications on design flood event, seismicity, and

freeboard requirements
Annual Exceedance Probability – Floods
Dam Classification
Operational Phase Closure (Passive Care) Phase

Low 1/100 1/1,000

Significant Between 1/100 and 1/1,000 1/3 between 1/1,000 and PMF

High 1/3 between 1/1,000 and PMF 2/3 between 1/1,000 and PMF

Very High 2/3 between 1/1,000 and PMF PMF

Extreme PMF PMF

Annual Exceedance Probability – Earthquakes

Dam Classification
Operational Phase Closure (Passive Care) Phase

Low 1/100 1/1,000

Significant Between 1/100 and 1/1,000 ½,475

1/2 between 1/2,475 and 1/10,000 or

High 1,2475
MCE

1/2 between 1/2,475 and 1/10,000 or

Very High 1/10,000 or MCE
MCE

Extreme 1/10,000 or MCE 1/10,000 or MCE 30

Summary
Select type of analysis
required

Select breach location

Decide if
more Breach hydrograph Not necessarily same
robust Run models and program / method
analysis scenarios Route breach flood
required Inundation maps

Preliminary impacts
No controls in place
assessment

Emergency Action
Planning and Hazard Re-assess impacts considering applied controls
Reduction

Hazard Classification and And adjust design for any changes to IDF,
Design Implications freeboard requirements, etc
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Tips for success
• Key inputs required:
– Good topography: the accuracy of the flood routing and subsequent
Critical
inundation mapping is dictated by the topographic resolution
– Aerial imagery to identify downstream infrastructure and communities
– TSF design details (as-built survey, design details and cross-sections, Important
geotechnical properties, spillway details, freeboard)
– Design storm data (depths and frequencies)
– Land use mapping
– Tailings rheology properties Nice to have
– Downstream surface roughness values

• Recognize that dam break assessments are full of significant

assumptions and uncertainties
– Best to provide range since impossible to accurately predict real scenario

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