Components of Demography: Fertility,

Mortality and Migration

Prof. (Dr.) Jitendra Mohanty
Fertility
Fertility rate is studied on the basis of actual live births of
children during a given period of time in a society
There are different methods to measure fertility
Methods to measure Fertility
(a) Crude Birth Rate: Most simple and common method
used to measure fertility – gives an overall idea about birth
trends – number of live births per thousand of population is
counted – Stillborn children are not considered – age and
gender distribution is not considered – marital status is also
ignored – Simple method of calculation: Crude Birth Rate =
Number of births/ Population per thousand
The crude birth rate indicates the number of live births
occurring during the year, per thousand population estimated at
mid-year
In 2019, the crude birth rate in India amounted to 17.64 live
births per 1000 inhabitants
CBR is equal to the number of live births in a year divided by
the total midyear population, with the ratio multiplied by 1000
to arrive at the number of births per 1000 people
Is one of the most basic and important measures in demography
Affect public policy, budgeting for education and health
systems – can have major impacts on the well-being of a
country’s population
(b) General Fertility Rate:
Considers male-female or gender ratio – it is an
age/sex specific birth rate
Accepted child bearing age of a woman considered as
15 years to 49 years
The number of live births of children per thousand
women in the child bearing age gives the general
fertility rate
Under this system the age and gender of the population
is taken into consideration
(c) Total Fertility Rate:
Most useful method of identifying the fertility rate
The specific fertility rate of diverse age groups within
the child bearing age is added to give us the total
fertility rate
This sum of age specific birth rate is multiplied by the
number of years in the age interval to arrive at the total
fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): (The Sum of the Age
Specific Fertility Rates X the number of years in each
age group)/1000
(d) Age Specific Fertility Rate
An accurate method of calculating the fertility rate
It specifies the fertility pattern in the different age
groups in the child bearing age
The actual births of live children in a year to every
1000 women in a specified age group are taken into
account
This method helps in analysing the success rate of
birth control methods and family planning
programmes implemented by the Government
(e) Child-Woman Ratio:
Ratio of child to woman can be derived by taking into
consideration the number of children in the age group of
0-4 years for every 100 women in the child bearing age
of 15-49 years
This procedure is useful when the statistics of registered
births is inadequate or inaccurate
Fertility rate of human population is affected by
numerous factors
However, major factor determining the fertility rate of
any population is the marriageable age
Factors affecting Fertility
1. Demographic Factors:
 Demography has a direct bearing on the fertility rate
of the population
 Composition of population based on sex, age,
literacy levels of citizens, scale of urbanization and
modernization affect fertility
 When number of people in reproductive age is more,
the fertility rate is higher
 Social customs like polygamy also affects fertility
2 Biological Factors
Fertility is a biological function
Access and availability of nutritious diet among reproductive age
of population affects fertility – Malnutrition results in high
mortality rate
Education and sanitation affect fertility
Child bearing is also affected by personal health and genetic
factors
Child bearing capacity reduces as the woman grows older
Infection as a cause for infertility can be medically treated
Modern methods of birth control and family planning methods
affect fertility rate
(3) Social Factors:
Marriage has direct impact
Marriage is a necessity so as parenthood in Indian life – this
results in higher birth rates
Western cultures do not give that much importance to marriage or
parenthood as institutions – Marked decline in birth rate is seen
The desire to have a male child as a social and religious
misconception
Religious restrictions and prohibitions on abortions
Education has inverse effect on population and birth rate
Higher education promotes rational thinking – focus on economic
success and quality of life
(4) Economic Factors:
Like education, economy also inversely affects fertility
High standard of living and better economic status lead to lower
fertility rate
Lower strata of society with no quality medical facilities,
nutritious food and birth control methods have more children
As the economic status improves, more stress is put on
restricting family size and betterment of life style
Relationship between education, economic standard and fertility
are thus well established
Becomes discernible when population trends in developed and
under-developed countries are compared and contrasted
Mortality
Oxford dictionary refers to mortality as “loss of life on a
large scale or number of deaths in a given period”
1991: J., Nacionis – Defined mortality as the incidence of
death in the society’s population
Mortality rate is a means of measurement of the number
of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of
that population at a given unit of time.
Mortality rate is expressed in units of deaths per 1000
individuals per annum
Mortality rate of 4.5 in a population of 100000 would
mean 450 deaths per year in the entire population
Methods to measure Mortality
(a) Crude Death Rate:
 The total number of deaths for every thousand people alive
during a particular time period
 The method is quite popular because of the simplicity of its
calculation
 However, we get only an average idea about the region-wise
mortality rate
 Absence of accurate and proper records of actual deaths,
information is often found lacking
 Deaths in remote rural areas often go unrecorded
 This method does not give information on sex and age
 Crude Death Rate = Annual deaths/Annual population X 1000
(b) Specific Death Rate:
Region-wise and age-wise deaths/Population of
same region and age, gender
This is then considered per thousand
Gives more detailed data about age and gender of the
dead – makes it easier to compile date and represent in
tabular form
Loss of life is more often during childhood and old age
compared to the prime stage of life
(c) Maternal Mortality Rate:
Method used for measuring the specific type of deaths – Number of
women dying during pregnancy or in child birth
Figures can be arrived at for particular regional for specific time frames
Helps analyze and study facilities available to ensure problem free child
births
Measures can be taken to reduce loss of life of women in the child
bearing years
Maternal mortality higher in under-developed countries and also among
economically weaker sections of society
Lower literacy rate, lack of medical facilities and nutritional food, high
level of physical stress, frequent child births major reasons for maternal
mortality
Pregnancy in young girls to be discouraged – ensure planned
pregnancies – prompt and qualified medical assistance before, during
and after child birth
(d) Infant Mortality Rate:
Children below 7 years identified as infants
Ratio is calculated as the number of infant deaths to the number
of births during a specified period of time for a particular region
Under developed countries and economically weaker societies
record higher rate of infant mortality as compared to developed
and rich countries
Highly literate states like Kerala record lower infant mortality
compared to Odisha
Poor medical facilities, illiteracy and poverty ersponsible for
higher infant mortality Immunization, sanitation, good nutrition
necessary to combat this scourge
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of deaths per 1,000 live
births of children under one year of age.
The rate for a given region is the number of children dying under
one year of age, divided by the number of live births during the
year, multiplied by 1,000
IMR stands at28.3 per 1,000 live births in 2009 it was 47.3/1000
Important key indicator of country’s health and standard of living
Causes of IMR: Birth defects – Preterm birth and low birth weight
– Sudden Infant Death Syndrome(SIDS) : No identifiable cause of
death – Pregnancy complications - Accidents
Rural Infant Mortality Rate was 54 per 1,000 live births in
Odisha(Rajasthan: 51; Meghalaya: 48; Chattisgarh: 47; J & K : 39)
Factors affecting Mortality
(a) Environmental Factors:
 Natural calamities like floods, earth quakes, drought have
direct effect on mortality
 Pollution, uncontrolled climatic factors and epidemics also
affect mortality
 Drastic variation in temperature cause fatalities – climatic
conditions help spread diseases and infections
(b) Social Factors:
 Infanticide, genocide affect mortality – Desire for a male
child leads to infanticide and abortion of female foetus –
Rules like permissible number of children contribute to
mortality rate
( c )Demographic Factors:
Greater the number of very young children or senior
citizens, higher the rate of mortality
Higher mortality in densely populated regions compared
to scarcely populated places
(d) Biological Factors:
Areas more prone to infections and epidemics : High
mortality rates in under developed countries
Economically weaker countries: people with lower
resistance power; easily fall victim to fatal diseases
(malaria, dengue, jaundice, AIDS)
(e) Occupational Hazards:
Higher mortality in war prone areas like Iraq, Palestine – all
able bodied men employed in army or related sectors
Areas where main occupation is coal mining or men work
in chemical factories
Occupation like fishing in Sunderbans – people fall prey to
fatal attacks from animals like tigers and crocodiles
(f) Economic Conditions:
Economically weaker sections prone to death due to lack of
medical facilities
Absence of nutritious and healthy food
High mortality rate in poor countries like Namibia,
Somalia, Ethiopia etc due to starvation deaths caused
by drought
Poor succumb due to incapability to afford health care
facilities and poor hygiene
(g) Urbanization and Industrialization:
Higher level of pollution – higher stress levels
Infectious diseases spread faster in urban areas because
of poor hygienic conditions
Air and water pollution have adverse effect on life
span
Planned urbanizxation and industrialization need of the
Migration
Geographic movement of people across a specified boundary
for the purpose of establishing a new permanent or semi-
permanent residence
Refugees and Internally Displaced People are not considered
as migrants
Individuals migrate because they think that they can improve
their own lives or those of their families in the new
geographical location
The movement is often over long distances and from one
country to other
Internal migration is possible – is the dominant form globally
Movement of people from one place in the world to another
People move for various reasons
Internal migration: moving within a state, country or continent
External migration: moving to a different state, country, or
continent
Emigration: leaving one country to move to another
Immigration: moving into a new country
Return migration: moving back to where you came from
Seasonal migration: moving with each season or in response
to labor or climate conditions
An emigrant is a person who is leaving one country to live in
another
An immigrant is a person who is entering a country from another
to make a new home
A refugee is a person who has moved to a new country because
of a problem in their former home
Push factors: food shortage, , war or flood
Pull factors: moving to a place because of something good – nicer
climate, more job opportunities, or better food supplies – region’s
economy, climate, politics and culture have effect on migration
Natural disasters and lack of natural resources make people move
Economic Impact of Human Migration
Impact of human migration on the world economy has been largely
positive
2015 – Migrants constituted 3.3% of world population, contributed 9.4%
of global GDP
According to the Centre for Global Development, opening all borders
could add USD 78 trillion to the world GDP
Remittances
Remittances (funds transferred by migrant workers to their home country)
form substantial part of economy of some countries
2018 statistics: India remittances 80 billion USD – 2.80% of GDP; China
rem 67 billion USD – 0.497% of GDP; Phillipines remittances 34 billion
USD – 9.144% GDP; Mexico 34 billion USD – 9.144% GDP; Nigeria 22
billion USD – 5.84% of GDP; Egypt 20 billion USD – 8.43% GDP;
Pakistan 20 billion USD – 6.57% GDP; Bangladesh 17.7 billion USD –
5.73% of GDP; Vietnam 14 billion USD – 6.35% of GDP
Migrants also make substantial contributions in the
areas of sociocultural and civic-political life
Sociocultural contributions: food/cuisine, sport, music,
art/culture, ideas and beliefs,
Civic-political contributions: participation in civic
duties in the context of accepted authority of the state
It is in recognition of the importance of these
remittances that the United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals 10 targets to substantially reduce
the transaction costs of migrants remittances to less
than 3 percent by 2030
Factors causing Migration
Two types of factors: Push and Pull Factors
 Push Factors: Not enough jobs, Few opportunities,
Primitive conditions, Desertification, Drought, Political
fear or Persecution, Slavery or forced labour, Poor
medical care, Loss of wealth, Natural disasters, Death
threats, Lack of political or religious freedom,
Pollution, Poor housing, Discrimination, War etc
 Pull Factors: Job opportunities, Better living
conditions, Political and/or religious freedom,
Enjoyment, Education, Better Medical care, Attractive
climates, Security, Family links, Industry
Immigration: Permanent entry of new individuals of
the same species into a population from outside. It
increases the size of the total population
Emigrations: Emigrations is the permanent
movement/departure of individuals of same species out
of the local population due to several reasons such as
lack of food, scarcity of space, etc. Emigrations
decrease the size of local population
India’s Demographics
Favourable demographics often considered one of the major
reasons behind country’s growth
Millions of educated Indians under the age of 30 – asset to the
country – this continues to expand at enviable rates despite the
global recession
This will help India to have a great demographic advantage –
an upper hand that will continue to fuel growth for decades to
come
Population (2019) : 1.366 billion – 136.6 crores – 71.7 crore
males and 66.3 crore females – 2 nd most populous country next
to China (Rural: 65%; Urban: 35%)
Population average annual Growth Rate: 1.2%
Birth Rate: 17.806 births per 1000people (1.19%
decline from 2018)
Death Rate: 7.273(deaths/1000population)
Life Expectancy: 68.7 years
Sex Ratio: 924 females per 1000 males – 48.04%
female population compared to 51.96% male
population (March 18,2020)
Households 27 crore households – nationally average
household size 4.9 (2018)
Population 2020
Population: 1,380,000,000+ (2020)
Population density: 500 people per sq,km (2011 est.)
Growth Rate: 1.2% (2020)
Birth rate: 18.2 births/1000 population (2020)
Death Rate: 7.3 deaths/1000 population (2020)
Life Expectancy: 69.7 Years (2020)
Male: 68.4 Years; Female: 71.2 years
Fertility Rate: 2.17 children born/woman (2017)
Infant Mortality Rate: 29.94 deaths/1000 live births
(2018)
Distribution of population by age: 0-14 years: 28.6%;
15-64 years: 63.6%; 65 and over: 5.3% (2009 est.)
 Education:
 India has largest school age population in the world
Well-established education system – more than 1.6
million schools
Enrollment in excess of 240 million students
Higher education: More than 500 universities – more
thn 30,000 colleges – 7000 technical institutions
 Labour Force:
 Stood at approximately 487.6 million in 2011
 Approx 4.2 million people added to India’s talent pool every
year – 4 million graduates; 0.26 million post-graduates
 IITs and IIMs premier institutions
 1.3 billion people with more than two-thirds being less than
35 years of age
 India second only to China in terms of size
 Economist John Maudlin: Loss of 85 million workers in 30
years (equal to working population of Britain and all of
Germany) – India is going to add the same number
Advantage India: China ultra-low fertility rate (One family norm
introduced in 1979 combined with fast growing ageing population)
By 2020, average age of Indian will be 29 years compared to 37
years for China and 48 for Japan
India’s economic growth well supported by rapid urbanization,
increaein literacy rate, declining poverty and building much needed
infrastructure
India boasts significant opportunities for foreign investment – India
Asia’s biggest buying economy – world’s largest growing middle
class
Global companies in India doing well – Growth highest in global
markets – continue to invest aggressively – will double their
investments in India in next 5 years
Creating awareness and education can help fight social evils – Strict
compliance with law can combat infanticide and dowry
(c) Demographic Factors:
Areas where very young children or senior citizens are more will
observe higher mortality
Densely populated regions will show more higher mortality compared
to thinly populated regions
(d) Biological Factors:
Areas more prone to infection like under developed countries will
exhibit high mortality rate – epidemics more frequent and destructive
Economically weaker countries have lower resistance power amongst
population – fall victim to fatal diseases like malaria, dengue, jaundice
which increase mortality – Spread of AIDS is a cuase of concern