WAR IN AFGHANISTAN

SINCE 1979
IMPACTS AND CHALLENGES
Afghanistan
• 652,860 square Km
• Geostrategic position
• Mineral resources
• Graveyard of Empires
• Buffer state between USA and USSR
• Bridge between CARs and S.A
• Landlocked country
King Zahir Shah
• Monarch of Afghanistan (1933—73)
• ‘Father of the Nation’ title in 2002
• His era was marked by
• Peace and stability
• Good diplomatic relations
• Neutral
• Modernization of Afghanistan on the lines of turkey
• A new constitution in 1964
• Moderrn democratic state
• Free elections
• Parliament
• Civil rights
• Women’s rights
• Universal suffrage
1970s and Assassinations
• July 1973: Sardar Daud (his brother-in-law) maneuvered a coup
• Zahir shah in Italy for medication
• Abdicated rather than risk a civil war
• Daud Khan: Hostile towards Pakistan
• Pakistan started supporting Burhan-ud-Din Rabbani & Gul Badin Hikmatyar
• 1978: Daud Khan assassinated in a coup by Noor Muhammad Tarkai
• Noor Muhammad Tarkai established PDPA which was backed by Soviet
• Disintegrated into two factions (Khalq & Parcham)
• 14 Sep, 1979: Tarkai assassinated by his Dy PM Hafeezullah Amin
• Soviets accepted
1979 and the Globe
• Iran Revolution
• Hostage crisis for USA
• Iran-Iraq War
• In Afghanistan, Hafeezullah Amin trying to improve relations with USA & Pakistan
• 24 Dec, 1979: Soviets invaded Afghanistan
• Executed Amin
• Installed Babrak Kamal
• India supported Soviets actions
• Warm water theory
• Threat to Pakistan
• Jan, 1980: OIC resolution
• Immediate & Unconditional withdrawal of USSR
AFGHAN WAR
• Defection of soldiers joining Mujahideen
• Guerrila Wars
• Hit and Run Tactics
• USA & KSA: 6.5 billion dollars worth of weapons to rebels
• USSR: 5.7 billion dollars arms to Govt
• Operation Cyclone
• Monetary & Material assistance to rebels through Pakistan
• Stinger Missiles by USA in 1986
• 350 Soviet Aircrafts targeted
GENEVA ACCORD

• 4 April 1988

• Between Pakistan & Afghanistan

• USA & USSR as guarantors

• No Intervention from any power

• Troops withdrawal
• May 1988 to 15 Feb, 1989
CIVIL WAR
• 1992: Afghan Govt Collapsed
• Afghanistan needed a ‘Marshall Plan’ but USA left in Chaos
• Burhanuddin Rabbani assumed power and refused to abdicate
• 1996
• Taliban under Mullah Umar seized control
• Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
• Pak, KSA & UAE recognized
• 10% of Northern Area was with ‘Northern Alliance’
• Ahmed Shah Masood
• A Tajik
• Lion of Panjshir
OBL
• Inspired by Religion but aims Geo political
• Undermine the contemporary world order of Nation-States
• Re-create the Historical Ummah
• ‘Decisive blow’ to USA
• To withdraw its military forces from Muslim-Majority states
• 1986: he suggested that Jihadis ought to strike inside Americe to
address the plight of Palestinians

OBL considers US responsible for creation of state of Israel

‘DECLARATION OF JIHAD’
• 1996 public communique
• ‘Ledanese Epistle’

“My Muslim Brothers of the World, your borthers in the land of the two
holiest sites and Palestine are calling on you for help and asking you to
take part in fighting against the enemy, your enemy: the Israelis & the
Americans. This collective battle would be the first step in reviving the
Ummah”
Destroy the myth of American Invincibility
• 1998
• Attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania
• 2000
• Attack on USS Cole
• US policy changed

• Pak asked Taliban to expel AQ

• Sep, 2001: AQ killed Ahmed Shah Masood
AFTER 9/11

‘I swear by God Almighty who raised the heavens without effort that
neither America nor anyone who lives there will enjoy safety until
safety becomes a reality for us living in Palestine and before all the
infidel armies leave the land of Muhammad PBUH’
9/11
• AQ operatives hijacked 4 commercial airlines
• 2 into WTC
• 1 into Pentagon
• 1 into Pennysylvania
• 2977 victims
• 19 hijackers
• Lead by Egyptian Muhammad Atta
• Surpassed ‘Pearl Harbor Attack’
USA, NATO AND TALIBAN
• 13 Sep, 2001: NATO Art 5 invoked (first time)
• 18 Sep: Bush signed ‘Authorization for use of Military Force against
terrorists’
• Demanded Mullah Umar to handover AQ Leaders
• Mullah Umar publicly condemned the attacks
• Refused to extradite
• Asked for evidence
• USA refused to provide evidence saying that
• ‘We do not negotiate with terrorists’
• Mullah Umar later on offered to hand over OBL to 3rd party like OIC
BONN AGREEMENT, N.A and ISAF
• Taliban Govt Toppled

• 5 Dec, 2001: Bonn Agreemennt by UN

• Endorsed by UNSC RES # 1383
• Also gave Govt to Northern Alliance (Hamid Karzai)

• 20 Dec,2001: UNSC Res # 1386

• Established ISAF
3 Threats and 7 Demands
• Bush announced 3 threats for USA
• WMDs
• Rising China Military Power
• OBL
• Secy of State Collin Powel and Dy Secy of state Richard Armitage: 7 demands
• Stop AQ operatives @ your border
• Blanket overflight & landing rights
• Access to Naval & Air Bases
• Condemn the 9/11 & curb the support
• Cut off all shipments of fuel to Taliban
• Break diplomatic relations
• Intelligence & Immigration Information

‘They were saying Pakistan to help destroy what its intelligence service had helped create and
maintain; the Taliban’ (Bob Woodward)
PAKISTAN’S STRATEGIC DECISION
• Musharraf agreed to all Seven and asked for Nothing
• Perhaps he was seeking legitimacy
• One concession however
• Evacuation by Pakistani aircraft of Pakistani military advisers & volunteers
• 2005-06:
• Islamist militants & Baloch Nationalists attack
• Stronghold in KP
• TTP Operations
• USA authorized sale of F-16 Fighter Jets
2011
• 2011: Peak number of forces
• 140,000 ISAF
• 100,000 US
• Operation ‘Geronimo’
• OBL

• Burhanduddin Rabbani eliminated by USA

• Relations b/w Afghan govt & USA worsened
2014: Troops Withdrawal

• Obama announced in 2013

• WOT Over?
• US pledged to hand over ‘security’ and other responsibilities to the Afghan
government
• Transition Process

• In October, British forces handed over base in Helmand to Afghan

military
• In December, NATO formally ended ISAF Combat operations
Ashraf Ghani as President

• Ashraf Ghani elected as President

• Immediately signed Bilateral Security Agreement

• Authorized an international force of 13,000 to remain in Afghanistan

PAKISTAN OPERATIONS
• 2007: Operation Swat (1st Battle)
• With TTP
• Ceasefire

• 2009: Operation Swat (2nd Battle)

• Operation Rah-e-Raast
• TTP
• Swat returned to Govt control
• TTP Commanders were captured/killed
PAKISTAN OPERATIONS
• 2009: Operation Rah-e-Nijat
• South Waziristan
• Pakistani victory
• 2014: Operation Zarb-e-Azb (15 June)
• North Waziristan
• TTP, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, ETIM, LeJ, AQ, Jundullah, Haqqani
• Decisive Victory
• IDPs
• 2017: Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad
• Disarm & eliminate the sleeper cells & facilitatiors
• Consolidate gains of Operation Zarb-e-Azb
 IMPACTS
(POLITICAL)
• Military Rule gained Legitimacy
• Preservation of autocratic rule
• Damaged democratic values, institutions, political parties, judiciary and media
• Stagnation of political authority
• Military into administration
• Pursuance of N.Program (Strategic)
• 1979: Carter Administration cut off aid
• Symington amendment
• No aid to countries developing N Weapons
• 1980s: Reagon Administration
• Temporary 6-years waiver of anti-proliferation section 669 (Symington amendment) of Foreign
Assistance Act
• Pressler Amendment: Economic & Military Aid
 IMPACTS
(POLITICAL)

• Pashtun Ethnicity strengthened

• Shared cross-border ideology

• Strengthening of Religious Parties & Extremist Elements

• JI & JUI’s main role
• Role in PNA 1977
• Zia calls himself Rightist
 IMPACTS
(ECONOMIC)
• 127 billion dollars & 70k+ deaths
• Refugees
• 4 million
• Burden on grazing grounds
• Water resources
• Ecological losses: deforestation
• Purchase of immovable property & control of transportation
• Cheap labor
• Local unemployment exacerbated
• Economic mismanagement & underdevelopment
• Deep inequalities & inalienation
 IMPACTS
(SECURITY)
• Stability Undermined
• Influx of Militants & AQ Fighters
• Deteriorating Security & Law n Order Situation
• Enhanced Vulnerability of US-NATO ground supply routes through Pakistan
• Battle of the Reverse Front
• A spike in violent reprisals on mainland Pakistan
• Baloch insurgency

Twin blowbacks from Afghanistan (Influx of militants and fighters and

Kalashinkov culture)
 IMPACTS
(SOCIAL)
• Islamization
• Hudood Ordinance (10 Feb, 1980)
• Federal Shariah Court
• Added Article 203-C
• Curriculum under Islam
• Policy in 1979 about Islamization of Education
• State Controlled Media
• Press Advice System
• Under Press & Publication Odinance (1962)
• Abolished in 1988
 IMPACTS
(SOCIAL)
• Sectarian Strife
• Iran Revolution 1979
• Afghan war 1979
• KSA role
• Imposition of Zakat in 1980
• Mobilized Shias
• Drug & Kalashinkov culture
• Opium, Heroin etc
CHALLENGES
• Reboot relations with USA & Afghanistan
• Post-trump era & post GWOT era
• Friendly govt in Afghanistan
• Intra-Afghan dialogue
• Growing Insurgency in Baluchistan & KP
• Separation
• Kulbhushan Yadav
• Countering Indo-US equation
• Prevention of Indian designs of encirclement
• US invitation to India in Afghanistan
• Border Management
9/11, GWOT and IMPACTS
9/11 & GWOT
• GWOT – overarching priority of US National Security Policy
• Shifted towards Containing China, Russia and mitigating Climate Change
• 9/11 securitized basic functions in USA (Securitized Mindset)
• Immigration
• Community policing
• Travel
• Banking
• ID Cards
• It proved that National Security impacts everything
• Politics
• Diplomacy
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• HR
• Doctrine of Preemption – Counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan & Iraq
POST-POST-9/11 ERA

• Joe Biden’s Priorities

• First speech in Congress & at G7 Summit

• Strengthen Global Health
• Fighting Pandemic and Climate change
• Revitalizing democracy
• Containing China & Russia (Pivot to Asia)
DOHA DEAL
• 29 Feb, 2020

• Release of 5000 Taliban Prisoners

• US Forces’ withdrawal by May, 2021

• Intra-Afghan Talks
COST OF GWOT
• 7000 US Soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq

• 50,000 wounded

• 30,000 suicides

• 37 million people displaced (Brown University)

• 7 Trillion Dollars
CRITICISMS ON US POST 9/11 FP
• Subsidized and supported Brutal/Dictatorial regimes
• Egypt
• Pakistan
• Paying Lip service to democratic values
• Revitalizing global democracy is not compatible with a permanent global GWOT
• Trade-offs: Military Assistance & HR; Seeking Assistance & Democracy
• Selling weapons to violators of HR
• KSA in Yemen
• Effecting Regime change in M.E failed
• Losing goodwill of Muslims round the globe
• Jordan (a close US ally) – 80% negative in 2015
CRITICISMS ON US POST 9/11 FP
• Rise of ISIS
• Collateral damage
• Violating/Disrespecting Territorial Integrity of Countries
• War Fatigue
• Opportunity Cost
• Psychological factor
OPPORTUNITY COST OF GWOT
• American Political Dysfunction – revealed by Covid-19
• Stark relief for China
• Largest Navy – 350 battle warships (290 US)
• Artificial islands in SCS – Defensive Line
• Russia annexed Crimea
• Backed separatists in Ukraine
• Iran – proxies in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria
• DPRK – Acquired N.Weapons
• Rise in Threshold for use of force
• Reluctance in International community to further garner support for any project/mission/operation
even from within USA

NSAs diverted US attention from State Actors

IMPACT OF GWOT
• US versus THEM debate – at home and abroad
• Polarized national interests
• Embraced as Template for repression
• Justifications by Authoritarian regimes to target political opponents
• “Detaining Uyghurs in the camp was exactly the right thing to do” (Trump to Xi in 2019)
• Blurred line between
• Civilians and Combatants
• Peace and Power
• Legitimized Islamophobia in many countries including India and China
• Excuse to state to exert stronger control over religion & civil society
CENTRAL ASIA
• Ventured for Secularism
• Regulation of Religion
• Regime Legitimization

• Uzbekistan – a war against Islam for a decade before 2001 by President

Islam Karimov to root out political dissent
• Tajikistan – Civil war (1992-97) – peace accord 1997; settled score with
fighters
• Abused Terrorist label to criminalize IRPT (Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan)
• Kazakhstan – prosecution of missionary group
SOUTH ASIA
• Negatively impacted Pak-India relations
• Terrorism increased both in intensity & frequency
• ‘A label of convenience’ to accuse each other
• Pakistan – Good/Bad Taliban and Proxy in Kashmir
• India – Financial and Material support to separatists in Baluchistan &
TTP
• To deflect attention from HR violations in Kashmir
• Counter Terrorism Authorities formulated after 9/11
South East Asia
• GWOT’s second Front
• Terrorist groups spread their tentacles
• A new consciousness
• Extra-territorial

• US Engagement in region
• Political, Military, Economic support

• ASEAN enhanced CT capabilities

 PARADOXICAL
“TERRORISM – NOT DEFINED”
• UN has not defined Terrorism yet
• No clear definition of Terrorism

• ‘Instrumentalization of GWOT rhetoric by regimes for their political

ends
• States determined political opponents as terrorists

• Cracking down on dissent & bolstering authoritarian legitimacy

GOOD ENOUGH DOCTRINE
‘American Counter Terrorism settled into a ‘Good Enough Doctrine’ to manage rather than eliminate the terrorist threat’
(Daniel Byman)
• A.Q & ISIS are now shadows of their former selves
• Intelligence Operations and Drone technology shattered their structures
• Secured Homeland
• No second 9/11
• Insulation of US from threat (kept fight away/abroad)
• 107 Americans died in Jihadi attacks since 9/11 on US Soil (New America Think Tank)
• Global Intelligence Campaign
• 100+ countries
• Monitor, disrupt and arrest Jihadis
• Eliminated many leaders
• OBL
• Baghdadi
• Anwar Al-Awlaki (AQAP)
• Qasim Al Raymi (Yemen)
WITHDRAWAL IMPACTS
• Space to A.Q & ISIS (Victory for AQ)
• Freedom of Action
• Taliban may work with AQ against enemies in Afghanistan (though NOT on broader International
scenario)
• Paradigm shift in Global Order
• USA will try to retain its influence
• Diplomatic options – sanctions, multilateral pressure
• Array of basing & access arrangements – to strike
• Taliban’s victory – A morale boost to Kashmiri Fighters and other militant outfits
• Strategic Competition to fill the Strategic Vacuum
• Rise of Proxy elements
• Opportunity for moving towards Regional Trade and Development
CHALLENGES TO REGION
• Non-Inclusive Government – Chaos
• Spread/Export of Radicalism
• Averting Humanitarian Crisis – Civil War and Spill over Effect
• Illicit flow of Drugs
• Refugee Crisis – Brain Drain
• Morale Boost to Extremists/Separatists
• Capitalizing on Already investment
CHALLENGES TO REGION
• Sectarian Strife
• Social uplift of Afghanis
• Food
• Education
• Health
• Strategic space for NSAs and SAs
• Recognition to Taliban Govt
• Absence of a coordinated International approach
Opportunities
• Peace in region – a dream unrealized
• A Gateway to Connectivity
• Resolution of Water Issues
• Trade Corridors
• Afghanistan in BRI
• An Active Civil Society
• Vibrant Media and Dynamic Social media
CHALLENGES FOR TALIBAN
• Seeking Legitimacy and Recognition
• Foreign Policy Issues
• Getting Assets Unfrozen
• Inclusive Government
• Good Governance with poor finances
• Economic Crisis
• Humanitarian Crisis
• Political Ideology and Modern Nation-State Concept
• Brain Drain
• Relations with Regional countries
• Check on Terrorist organizations especially AQ & ISIS
• Building an Education system in line with modern demands
WHY US FAILED?
• As per USA, PAKISTAN (Unhelpful Ally)
POLITICAL REASONS
• Polarized Politics in Congress
• Declining support in International community
• Repurposing GWOT round the globe
• South Asia
• South East Asia
• Middle East
(Shoot-first-ask-questions-later attitude)
STRATEGIC/MILITARY REASONS
• Mountainous Terrain & Guerrilla Warfare
• Strategic Confusion about Goals/Targets
• ‘The battle will take time and resolve …. We will win’ (Bush)
• What is meant by ‘WIN’?
• Taliban’s organizational setup and clarity/unity in objectives
• Lack of Capacity of Afghan Forces – incompetent, unmotivated and poorly trained
WHY US FAILED?
ECONOMIC REASONS
• Financial Burden – Deficit spending – No budget surplus after 9/11
SOCIAL REASONS
• Diminishing Public Support at home
• Psychologically Lost
• Invasion – an emotional & revengeful decision
• To satisfy collective psychological need
Failure due to Afghan Govt (Unruly Client)
• Centralization of Power – history tells that Afghanistan regions/provinces remained autonomous
• Corruption
• Warlordism
• Kleptocratic system
• Delegitimization – less support in Afghanistan’s public
Portrayal of GWOT as War with Islam
Dialogues on Afghanistan
Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on
Afghanistan
• 10 Nov
• Russia, Iran & 5 CARs
• Taliban NOT invited - But commended Conference
• Pakistan & China declined – ‘Scheduling difficulties’ & ‘India as a spoiler’
respectively
• Delhi Declaration
• Combat terrorism in all its forms and manifestations
• Open & truly inclusive govt
• Formation of a regional front
• Unimpeded humanitarian aid
• India proving its relevance – a legitimate coordinator or shared interests
RIC Summit
• Russia-India-China
• Joint Communique
• India wanted JeM & LeT to be mentioned
• China wanted ETIM to be mentioned
• Both compromised and NO mention

• Putin visited Inida after this and 2+2 talks

• India wanted Moscow to remain sensitive to India’s concern on
Terrorism
TROIKA PLUS
• China special representative to Pakistan on 11 Nov

• Troika Plus – China, Russia, Pakistan and US

• Joint statement
• Appealed International community to urgently provide humanitarian aid
• Urged Taliban to form inclusive govt & respect rights
• Welcomed Taliban’s commitment to allow for safe passage
• Called on Taliban to cut ties with all international terrorist groups, dismantle &
eliminate them, deny them space
MOSCOW FORMAT
• Latest 3rd Meeting in Oct, 21
• Russia, 4 CARs, Iran, Pakistan, India, China
• All vowed to respect sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan
• View Taliban as new Afghan authorities despite absence of official recognition
• For recognition
• Improve state management
• Truly inclusive govt (reflects interest of all ethnopolitical forces)
• Pursue a moderate and wise internal & foreign policy
• Friendly to Neighbour states
• Respect the rights of ethnic groups, men and women
• Convene a broad-based International Donor Conference under UN for Humanitarian Aid
• Core burden be shouldered by troop based actors who were in the country for the past 20 years
• Assets should unfreeze
TALIBAN TALKS
• 2 rounds of Talks between USA & Taliban
• Frozen assets of Afghan’s central bank in federal treasury (10 Billion Dollars)
• Reopening Embassy
• US National Interest about Counter Terrorism

• Taliban met EU Delegation in Qatar

• Unlock extra cash finances if conditions are met
• EU ready to provide development assistance but thorugh International
organizations
• Considering to open a joint diplomatic mission in Afghanistan – NOT recognition
AFGHANISTAN AND UN
UN
• Humanitarian crisis looming
• Half of Afghan’s population at risk of starvation
• 3.2 million children will be malnutritioned
• Economic Collapse
• If frozen assets NOT released
• Aid cut off may kill more Afghans than war.
REPRESENTATION IN UN
• Taliban applied in September for representation in UN
• Credentials Committee of UN (Decision by Consensus)
• Deferred Taliban’s representation
• Talibans have deprived the people of Afghanistan of their legitimate rights
WHAT UN CAN DO?
• Humanitarian Assistance
• Political Settlement
• Constructive, adaptive and understanding
• Development Financing
• Operational Environment
• Micro Financing – UNDP announced creation of a People’s Economy Fund
• Convene regional states
• Protect 20 years of Investment
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?
• Lot of Diplomatic Summitry but Little Action

Tangible Impact if
• Agreed Governance Conditionalities
• Modalties for humanitarian assistance
• Report & share information on Taliban govt’s conduct
• Track activities of AQ & ISIS
• Joint Intelligence & Military Observation Mission
• Multilateral Military Coordination Mechanism
 PAKISTAN-
AFGHANISTAN
RELATIONS
HISTORY
• Sep, 1947: only country to vote against Pakistan membership in UN
• Afghanistan irredentism and issue of Pashtunistan
• Faded due to 26 years long proxy war (1947-73)
• Afridis, Sharistas and Ipi Faqeer
• Wanted ‘Liberation of Pashtunistan’
• June 1949: PAF warplane inadvertently bombed Afghan village Mughalgai.
• July 1949: Loya Jirga session
• Unilaterally denounced all treaties related to Pak-Afghan International border
• Boundary agreement of 1893
• Anglo-Afghan treaties of 1905, 1919 and 1921 confirmed it as International border
• Full support for Pashtunistan
• 31st of August: Pashtunistan day
HISTORY
• 1948-50: Proxies in Khyber & Waziristan
• Dropped leaflets in support of Pashtunistan inside Pak’s tribal Areas
• 1950-51: Few skirmishes
• 3 Afghan-led lashjars crossed border & attacked in Khyber
• Afghanistan declared ‘freedom fighters’
• 16 oct, 1951:
• Pakistani PM Liaquat Ali Khan shot dead by Afghan national Syed Akbar Babrak
• 1955: Pak’s 3 diplomatic missions were attacked
• Merger of West Pakistan Provinces
• 1961: Diplomatic relations cut off
HISTORY
• 1963: Resumed after Sardar Daud’s resignation (Hawk for Pakistan)
• 1964-72: Domestic power struggle
• Pashtunistan went on backburner
• Pak-Afghan relations normalized
• Remained neutral in 65 & 71 wars
• 1973: Bloodless military coup
• Pashtunistan got momentum
• PM ZAB authorized ‘Tit fot Tat’ response to Afghanistan
• Pakistan’s first act to use proxies against afghanistan
1970s
• 1974: afghan president Daud did not participate in OIC Leaders summit held in Lahore
• 1973-78
• Support baloch insurgents, sheltered Marri tribesmen
• April 1978: Saur Revolution
• New pro-communist regime led by Noor M Tarkai
• Established PDPA (People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan)
• 14 sep, 1979: Tarkai got assassinated
• New leader Hafeezullah Amin
• Dec, 1979: Soviet Secret Service KGB assassinated Hafeezullah Amin and 1 lac troops
entered
• Babrak Kamal Installed
• Pledged to free ‘holy land of pashtunistan’
A FLEETING LOOK
• Afghan War
• Civil war
• 1996- Taliban Govt: One of the best period of relations
• Pak secured ‘strategic depth’
• Post 9/11
• Post-post-9/11 (post us withdrawal)
• Central & South Asia 2021: regional connectivity, challenges and opportunities
• Tashkent (Uzbekistan) on 16 July
• New quad launched to support peace & stability in Afghanistan & foster regional trade & business ties
• Quad regional support for Afghanistan peace process & post-settlement
• Pak, Afghanistan, uzbek and US
• Taliban in power
• Took over Kabul on 15th of August, 2021
Political Settlement
Pak participated in earlier meetings
• Kabul process-I and II
• Moscow format on Afghanistan
• SCO Contact group on …
• International Contact group on …
• 6 party talks
WHY PAKISTAN WANTS PEACE &
STABILITY
• Peace in Pakistan
• Return of Afghan refugees
• Improved Border Management
• Increased Bilateral trade
• Crucial for success of CPEC
CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN
• Taliban’s treatment of TTP
• Possibility of rise of revisionist & Irredentist designs
• Border Management
• Convincing International Community to recognize Taliban
• Refugees in case of crisis
• Threat of ISIS
• Taliban’s trade with India
• Relations with USA
OPPORTUNITIES
• Friendly govt
• Afghanistan in BRI/CPEC
• Transit Corridors
• Access to CARs
• Neutralizing India’s influence
• Undercut Pashtun Nationalism
• Talibans are NOT ethnic nationalists
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN’S
CURRENT SCENARIO
• PAKISTAN STANCE
• ‘Continuation of foreign military presence in Afghanistan for a longer duration would not
have yielded a different outcome’ (National Security Committee)
• Withdrawal is a ‘Logical conclusion’ to the conflict in Afghanistan (Pakistan)
• Urged International Community
• Ensure an inclusive political settlement for long term peace, security and development in Afghanistan &
region
• ECONOMIC SUPPORT
• Pledged 280 million dollar economic support
• Ended taxes on all imports from Afghanistan
• Access to Taliban to Banking sector
• Providing Medicines
• 50k Tons of Wheat – Allowed India to send Wheat through Afghan Trucks
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN’S
CURRENT SCENARIO
• POLITICAL SUPPORT
• Accepted Taliban-appointed diplomatic envoy
• Taliban’s FM invited

• MILITARY SUPPORT
• Officer to Train Army
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN’S
CURRENT SCENARIO
MANAGING GROUP’S LEGITIMACY FOR INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE/RECOGNITION
• Taliban’s promises
• Moderate Statements/behaviours – HR, Women Rights, No terror outfit, Amnesty,
Meeting other leaders
• Peaceful Transition
• Banned forced marriages of women (Nothing about age)
• Inheritance given

APPREHENSIONS
• Taliban fighters killing officials linked with former government
• Girls’ secondary schools NOT operational
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN
• Pakistan announced that no unilateral decision of recognition
• Consensus will be built in the region

• China ready to deepen friendly & cooperative friendly relations

• Mosow decided to keep Its embassy open

“A future Afghan govt that upholds the basic rights of people and does
not harbor terrorists is a govt we can work with & recognize” (US Secy
of State)
CFM OIC IN ISLAMABAD
• Meeting of CFM OIC on December 19 in Islamabad

• To gather international support for Taliban Government

• Invited FMs of P-5, Germany, Representatives of EU, UN

• Afghanistan – a founding member of OIC

CONVERGENCES
• Peace & stability in Afghanistan and in region
• International Cooperation
• Development
• Pak’s development assistance 1 billion dollar
• Infrastructure, education, health, agriculture, & capacity building
• 3 hospitals: 200 bed Jinnah hospital Kabul
• 80 bed Nishtar kidney center in Jalalabad
• 100 bed Aminullah khan logar hospital
CONVERGENCES
• Infrastructure
• Torkhan-jalabad road of 75 km
• 15 weigh bridges
• Road construction machinery
• Education
• 4000 scholarships
• Many faculties at universities established
• 2m dollar for studnets to study in LUMS
• Capacity Building
• Agriculture, banking, railways, military & diplomacy
• Healthcare professionals
CONVERGENCES
• Trade & economic relations
• Pak is afghan’s largest trading partner
• Bilateral trade @ 1.4 billion dollars (Afghan central statics organization)
• APTTA (Oct, 2010)
• Pak-afghan joint chamber of commerce & industry
• Pak-afghan joint business council
• Joint economic commission
• APAPPS (Action plan for peace and solidarity)
• 6 working groups
• Refugees
• Housing & reintegration
• Counter terrorism
• Intelligence sharing
• Curb terror financing
• Eliminate safe sanctuaries of terrorists
CONVERGENCES
• Energy
• TAPI gas pipeline project
• CASA-1000
• Geo economic projects
• Military Training