STAT PACKAGES:

THE SECRET RECIPE TO

GET MORE PROPOSALS
IMPLEMENTED

Harry Sumner | iCrossing

@HarryOReally2
SLIDESHARE.NET/USERNAME
HELLO.
SEO recommendations struggle to

get implemented
‘Half (50%) of SEOs are currently waiting for technical
fixes to be carried out.’
- SEO Clarity
Why is this?

Lost in translation when Struggle to get SEO into sprints ROI is always asked to be
presented provided for signoff
Statistic based forecasting methodology

that enables you to prove the value of

SEO before/post release.

Here are 3 advantages in using these…
 There are two stat packages I’d like to

introduce you to…

Prophet & Causal Impact

A forecast is only as good as the data

you give it
‘the accuracy of any machine learning model is dependent
on the input information it is given.’
- Oncrawl
What you need: What can help do this:

1. More data in the timeseries (than less) Big Query. If not, proxy GA

2. Segmented meaningfully Categorisation & labelling

3. Expectation that results are indicative vs.

certain
Caveats for the unexpected
Forecasts are not certain, but they are the best we have
So you have to be clear and caveat that they cannot anticipate the unexpected

1. Look at the past

2. Not made for one site

3. Always variation/Market changes

Statistical packages developed by the major tech teams

Prophet Causal Impact

Here is how they work…
Prophet
Additive model of time
Fits nonlinear trends into daily,
weekly, monthly seasonality
Uses predictions on how that
could change
Causal Impact
Bayesian normative model
Infers impact that an
intervention has had on an
outcome metric
Shows extent of incremental
gain
Two libraries with distinct benefits in SEO application

Prophet Causal Impact

Handles holiday Demonstrates the value of an

effects/seasonality well intervention/release

Can exclude events to not skew

Shared as cumulative growth
set
Great when a A/B test is not
Robust to missing data
available

= Automatable, less prone to error and scalable

Naturally, there are other packages

Click the icon to add picture

Lots Synthetic control

Plus, newer versions in Beta
Why they work well…

Prophet Causal Impact

Forward facing macro view Respective view of what

performance could be
Places into scenarios
Relatively accurate
Great with seasonality Interpretable results
Easier than an A/B test
Pinpoint major events to
exclude
Example Business Case

SEO Proposal:

1. Body Copy
2. Footer FAQ
3. Internal Linking
4. Load Speed
Example Business Case

SEO Proposal: Client Challenges:

1. Body Copy 1. Resource

2. Footer FAQ 2. Clunky UX
3. Internal Linking 3. ROI
4. Load Speed 4. Commercials
Ahead, to get signoff, use Prophet
1. Use Prophet to put performance into scenarios
2. Add in competition to show who is doing well
After, to prove value, use

Causal Impact
Change goes live
Initial impact update
Mid-way check-in
The impact
3. Now show what the release has achieved
What does using Prophet & CSI give you?

1 2 3 4
SHOWS A SITES PLACES THIS IN A CAN CLEARLY UNDERPIN SEO
GROWTH MARKET CONTEXT SHOWS THE BUISNESS CASES
POTENTIAL TO SHOW IMPACT OF A WITH A BEFORE
AVAILABLE BY COMPETITORS RELEASE  TO AND AFTER TO
TAKING SEO THAT ARE IMP’ING BUILD DEV TEAM GET FUTURE BUY
SERIOUSLY  SEO BUY-IN IN
What we face:

1. Lost in translation when presented

2. Tussle with the dev queues

3. ROI is always in question

What we face: How they can help:

1. Lost in translation when presented Google/Facebook branded

2. Tussle with the dev queues Show what devs have driven

3. ROI is always in question All quantified commercially

Harry.Sumner@icrossing.co.uk
Some useful resources:
Libraries:
https://facebook.github.io/prophet/
https://www.libhunt.com/r/prophet
https://neuralprophet.com/html/index.html
https://google.github.io/CausalImpact/CausalImpact.html
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhain/software.htm
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1rvAGScvmjbhibCQw1f0PJFT282yyMD1O#scrollTo=5WSRq-Vg3e8y

Industry Commentators:
https://als.im/blog/how-to-use-facebook-prophet-in-google-sheets-function
https://www.mikulskibartosz.name/understanding-uncertainty-intervals-generated-by-prophet/
https://www.oncrawl.com/technical-seo/quality-causalimpact-predictions/
https://peerj.com/preprints/3190/
https://www.seoclarity.net/research/biggest-challenges-for-seos
https://ahrefs.com/blog/seo-forecasting/
https://storage.googleapis.com/pub-tools-public-publication-data/pdf/41854.pdf
https://research.google/pubs/pub41854/