Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change:

Global Changes and Local Impacts

Anthony J. Broccoli
Director, Center for Environmental Prediction
Department of Environmental Sciences
Rutgers University
New Jersey Clean Air Council
April 11, 2007
 “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect
from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”
Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990)

“The balance of evidence suggests

a discernible human influence on global climate.”
Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

“Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to

have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”
Climate Change 2000 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures

since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.”
Climate Change 2007 – The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
Future Emissions Scenarios

Some scenarios show

Even with aggressive
All scenarios show decreased emissions
reductions in emissions,
increasing emissions in latter half of 21st
CO2 would rise to 2x
during next several century
decades preindustrial levels
Red, green, and blue lines
represent different
emissions scenarios.

Height of each colored bar

represents variations among
different climate models.
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Sea Level Trends in New Jersey
Atlantic City, NJ

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NJ sea level rise = global sea level rise + other effects

0.4 m/century = 0.16 m/century + 0.24 m/century
Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?
• Thermal expansion
Warmer water is less dense
than colder water.
• Melting of glaciers and ice
caps
Water released by the melting
of ice on land adds to the
volume of the oceans.
• Melting and calving of
Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets
Depends on the ice sheet
dynamics (how the ice flows).
Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?
• Thermal expansion
Warmer water is less dense
than colder water.
• Melting of glaciers and ice
caps
Water released by the melting
of ice on land adds to the
volume of the oceans.
• Melting and calving of
Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets
Depends on the ice sheet
dynamics (how the ice flows).
Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?
• Thermal expansion
Warmer water is less dense
than colder water.
• Melting of glaciers and ice
caps
Water released by the melting
of ice on land adds to the
volume of the oceans.
• Melting and calving of
Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets
Depends on ice sheet
dynamics (how the ice flows).
Global mean sea level changes
Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Environment

Land area susceptible Land area susceptible

to inundation to coastal flooding
(“30-yr flood”)
50% probability of 0.61 m
sea level rise by 2100

1% probability of 1.22 m
sea level rise by 2100

Source: M. D. Beevers, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Workshop, Nov. 2005
Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources

Floods and Droughts?

 Warmer
↓
More
Precipitation

Warmer
↓
More
Evaporation
 “Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-
latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions,
continuing observed patterns in recent trends.”

Relative changes in precipitation (%) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999.
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change.
 Detection Attribution Projection
Likelihood of future
Likelihood that trend
Likelihood of a human trends based on
Phenomenon and occurred in late 20th
contribution to projections for 21st
direction of trend century (typically
observed trend century using SRES
post 1960)
scenarios
Warmer and fewer cold days
and nights over most land Very likely Likely Virtually certain
areas
Warmer and more frequent
hot days and nights over most Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain
land areas
Warm spells / heat waves.
Frequency increases over most Likely More likely than not Very likely
land areas
Heavy precipitation events.
Frequency (or proportion of
Likely More likely than not Very likely
total rainfall from heavy falls)
increases over most areas
Area affected by droughts Likely in many regions
More likely than not Likely
increases since 1970s
Intense tropical cyclone Likely in some regions
More likely than not Likely
activity increases since 1970
Increased incidence of
extreme high sea level Likely More likely than not Likely
(excludes tsunamis)
Flood Stage
More Climate Change in the Pipeline

Future emissions

Additional “zero-emission”
warming (aka “commitment”)

Warming to date
Managing Climate Change

• Leadership: Raise public awareness of the challenges

posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and
adapt.
• Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases.
• Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to
climate change.
• Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the
details of future climate change.