The IAEA– Iran negotiations

over/ for the revival of the

Nuclear Deal
Irfan Waheed Usmani
ToC
• Introduction
• The US Policy towards Iran’s nuclear programme: Historical overview
• The making/ finalization of IAEA– Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015
• Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Deal (January 2019)
• Iran’s resumption of Nuclear activities since 2019
• Hurdles/The Growing complexity in the situation
• Biden Administration’s Policy of revival/ renegotiation of the deal: Its underlying motives…
• The Modus operandi that was devised to bring Iran to the negotiating table
• Critically Examining the ongoing Process(I): the state of progress till 12 September
• Critically Examining the ongoing Process(II): the state of progress since 12 September
• Hurdles
• Prospects
Introduction
You can begin by Go into/ describe brief What does Iranian The stance of The UK, The Suspende
hooking to recent / background side want? France , Germany , impact/ d
development / phase which represent US effects of judgemen
of negotiations have taken irresponsi t
ble /
belligeren
t
ststement
s of Israeli
military
leadershi
p
• Editorial: “US—Iran Deal”, December 5 December 2021
• Editorial: “Iran-US Talks:, Dawn, 12 Nov. 2021 (for suspended
judgement) three and a half lines l
Iran –IAEA Deal, Dawn, 14 September 2021
• ONE of the major factors poisoning relations between Iran and the Western
bloc is deep mistrust over Tehran’s nuclear programme. This mistrust
developed into a wide gulf after the Trump administration unilaterally
withdrew from the meticulously crafted nuclear deal in 2018. Efforts had again
picked up pace to revive the deal after new governments were formed in
Washington and Tehran, yet as of now there appears to be a deadlock over the
issue.
• However, one small step in moving negotiations forward was taken when the
head of the IAEA visited Tehran on Sunday. The UN’s atomic agency and Iran
said they had agreed on a surveillance deal to monitor the Islamic Republic’s
nuclear activity, hailing in a joint statement the “spirit of cooperation and
mutual trust”. It is hoped that this cooperation is built on at the wider talks in
Vienna and progress is made in reviving the JCPOA.
The US Policy towards Iran’s nuclear programme: Historical
overview(I)

Comments over all Iran Nuclear First concrete step From Mid 1980’s Why could US and
trajectory of the ambitions date back in this direction: onwards and Israel not destroy/
policy to 1957 1974 particularly 1985 target Iran’s
and 1987 Iran nuclear
sought clandestine installation ?
cooperation from
Pakistan …
It has become March 5, 1957 The state of Reasons: see the
overtly/ pointedly/ Atoms for Peace Program
The United States and Iran
progress till 2002: next slide….
hostile after Iranian sign the Cooperation increased/ elevated
revolution Concerning Civil Uses of Atoms
agreement as part of
level of enrichment
President Dwight D. of Uranium
Eisenhower’s “Atoms for
Peace” initiative, under which
Irshad Ahmed
developing countries receive Haqqani:
nuclear education and
technology from the United
States. It lays the foundation
for the country’s nuclear
program.
Why could US and Israel not target Iran’s
Nuclear installations?
The US Lack of consensus The Disperse nature Apprehensions Level of popular
Entanglement in among US Western of Iran’s Nuclear about Iran’s support Iranian
WoT allies over invasion installations immediate/ government had
of Iran possible retaliation
against US allies in
Persian Gulf
Afghanistan See map on the next
Iraq slide
The US Policy towards Iran’s nuclear programme: Historical
overview(II): Obama’s Efforts of Pacifist engagement of Iran
The conspicuous difference Obama’s approach to engage Iran However, during the second term
between the Republican and on the issue indirectly in his first of Obama’s presidency these
Democrat’s administrations on the term in office efforts bore fruits:
issue of Iran’s Nuclear
programme/ ambitions
Republican administration have Comments on the overall directions
remined openly hostile towards of the efforts/ why they could not
Iran’s nuclear programme, whereas bear/ yield results?
the Democratic governments in US
inspite of keeping Iran under
enormous pressure have preferred
pacifist engagement of Iran …
The making/ finalization of IAEA– Iran
Nuclear Deal in 2015
The main crux of the deal
Zafar Iqbal Yusafzai, DT, 11 January
2021.
Being controversial… UN and
European Union”…
What the deal forced Iran to do?
David E. sanger, “ Iran inching
towards an atomic milestone”, The
NYT, 15 September 2021.
“That agreement forced the
Iranians to ship more than 97
percent of their fuel out of the
country, and the United states at
“breakout”, the term nuclear
experts use to define a race to build
a bomb’s worth of atomic fuel” …
Very brief insights into IAEA’s evaluation
after a year..
• Zafar Iqbal Yusafzai, “ Prospects of Iran Nuclear deal under Biden”,
DT, 11 January 2021.
Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Deal
(January 2019)(Paste an excerpt)
What happened after Trump’s withdrawal
from the deal?
• David A sanger, “ Iran inching towards….” The NYT
• A slow and steady Iranian effort to restore country’s capability…
• Reports : IAEA and Institute for science and International Security
( see David A. sanger’s article
• The position Iran has achieved, or attained/ the progress has put Iran
in which position?
• More insights into the state of progress of Iran’s nuclear programme:
• The three stages: (I) enriched fuel; (II) conversion to metal, and; (III)
warhead
Iran’s resumption of Nuclear activities since
2019(I)
• Iran has retracted from many of its commitments.
• What happened after US Iran accord? To what extent Iran complied
with the deal’s conditions/ instructions? ( The NYT, 15 September
2021)
Iran’s resumption of Nuclear activities since 2019(II):
the strategy of the new Iranian Government
Sanger’s article David Albright’s Analysis
The lead author of the report:
“to set negotiating table in its (I) Iranian government wants to
favour”… seek more favourable terms.
(II) The conditions on which Iran
has expressed desire to renew
the deal?
Biden Administration’s Policy of revival/
renegotiation of the deal: Its underlying motives
• During his election campaign, Biden pointed to the return to the
Iran nuclear deal that spurred expectations to renew the U.S.
diplomatic approach to the Middle East.
• Biden considers the agreement an appropriate step that would
limit Iran to a point where it would take Tehran one year to make
a nuclear weapon
Iran’s resumption of Nuclear activities since 2019(III):
the strategy of the new Iranian Government
“Iran is pushing…. Besides The difference between Iran’s What does Iran want?
….before the Iran Nuclear deal” official position and tactics…
Zafar Iqbal Yusufzai, DT, 11 January “ News item: Iran wants Nuclear
2021… talks to result in lifting f all
sanctions”…
Dawn 22 September 2021..
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: its state of
progress till mid September 2021..
David E. Sanger News item: Nuclear surveillance deal with Iran keeps
hopes for talks alive”, dawn, 13 September 2021..
The Modus operandi that was devised to
bring Iran to the negotiating table
• Indirect talks…
Critically Examining the ongoing Process(I):
the state of progress till 13 September
• What does the deal relate to?
• The limits of Iran’s cooperation…
• The compromise deal: when was the compromise agreement worked
out/ concluded?
• The agreement expired on 24 June 2021:
• What happened in June 2021: the indirect talks hit snags…
• News Item: “Nuclear Surveillance deal with Iran keeps hopes for talks
alive”, Dawn 13 September
• Their deal relates to limits Iran has imposed on the IAEA’s
ability to monitor various of its nuclear facilities.
• Iran has refused to provide real-time footage from cameras and
other surveillance tools that the UN agency has installed in
these locations.
• Under a compromise deal, the monitoring equipment remains
in the agency’s custody but the data is in Iran’s possession, and
must not be erased as long as the arrangement remains in force.
• Initially agreed for three months, the compromise was extended
by another month and then expired on June 24.
Critically Examining the ongoing Process(I):
the state of progress till 13 September
• What does the deal relate to?
• The limits of Iran’s cooperation…
• The compromise deal: when was the compromise agreement worked
out/ concluded?
• The agreement expired on 24 June 2021:
• What happened in June 2021: the indirect talks hit snags…
• News Item: “Nuclear Surveillance deal with Iran keeps hopes for talks
alive”, Dawn 13 September
The progress made in IAEA-Iran talks on 12
September
• But under Sunday’s agreement, “IAEA’s inspectors are
permitted to service the identified equipment and replace their
storage media which will be kept under the joint IAEA and
(Iran’s) AEOI seals in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the joint
statement said.
• News Item: “Nuclear Surveillance deal with Iran keeps hopes for talks
alive”, Dawn 13 Septembe
Critically Examining the ongoing Process(II):
the state of progress since 12 September
Hurdles/The Growing complexity in the situation

• Trust deficit
• Break down of talks: June 2021
• the extent of Iran’s cooperation
• IAEA’s complins of non- cooperation against Iran(7 September 2021 NYT)
• The elections in Iran and coming of hardliners into power
• The Western side has shown no inclination to rebuild trust with Tehran, instead
addressing the latter in partonising terms. The more rigid position it has taken
• The provocative statements of high-ranking Israeli military officials:
• The tone is becoming bitter/annoyed/exasperated…
• The Biden’s administration would come under / be faced with criticism from which
quarters? Zafar Iqbal Yusufzai
The tone is becoming
bitter/annoyed/exasperated…
(I) Antony Blinken’s statement, 3 December 2021 (II) Biden’s threat/ statement 9 December 2021
The Biden’s administration would come under /
be faced with criticism from which quarters?
• NYT, “ intense crosscurrents test Biden’s approach to Iran”,
• Zafar Iqbal Yusufzai
Prospects
• The prospects appear to be bleak
• The growing frustration in US circles/ officials:
• The Biden’s administration would come under / be faced with
criticism from which quarters? Zafar Iqbal Yusufzai
Despite , the hurdles there are some positive
signs as well
• The compromise deal: when was the compromise agreement worked
out/ concluded?
• The recent statement of the US president Biden shows that he has not
lost hopes and US is sticking to the policy of pacifist engagement of
Iran
• “ it was no time to give up” on the talks with Iran, insisting, “ there is
more progress being made”.. 20 January 2022…
Suggestions (I)
(II) The perquisite condition for the success
of talks (I)
(II) The perquisite condition for the success
of talks (II)
(III)
(V)
Dilly-dallying meaning:
• waste time through aimless wandering or indecision.
• "don't dilly-dally for too long"
(V) Continued
(VI)
(VI)