Chapter Five:

MAINTENANCE FORECASTING AND

CAPACITY PLANING
 5.1 Introduction
 5.2 Forecasting Preliminaries
 5.3 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
 5.4 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
 5.5 Error Analysis
 5.6 Forecasting Maintenance Work
 5.7 Maintenance Capacity Planning
 5.8 Deterministic Approaches For Capacity Planning
(Heuristic Tableau Method)

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 5.1 Introduction
 Maintenance forecasting and capacity planning are two
important functions for the design of an effective
maintenance system.
 Maintenance forecasting comprises the estimation and
prediction of the maintenance load.
 Maintenance load consists of two categories:
 1. Scheduled and planned maintenance load such as:
 a- routine and PM
 b- scheduled overhauls: (involve closure & Plant shutdown.)
 c- corrective maintenance (determining causes of repeated
breakdown and substandard performance as a result of design
malfunction.
 2. Emergency or Breakdown Maintenance load
 The sum of the two categories determines the
maintenance capacity
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 5.1 Introduction (cont..)
 Long-range capacity planning involves determination of:
 Maintenance resources; needed to meet organizational objectives:
such as availability, reliability, quality rates & delivery dates.
 Skills of craftsmen (exact number needed for each type.
 Healthy level of backlog (Delayed load)
 Overtime capacity
 Contract maintenance
 Capacity planning techniques help in defining
optimal allocation of the maintenance resources to
meet a random and varying workload.

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 5.2 Forecasting Preliminaries

 Forecasting Techniques can be classified

as qualitative and quantitative.
 Qualitative Forecasting is based on
experience and judgment
 Quantitative is based on mathematical
models
 See figure 5.1

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5.3 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
 The analyst relies on the estimates of experts and
their judgment.
 The analyst's role is to extract information from the
expert by using structured questionnaires or
interviews.
 The analyst should Identify variables affecting the
forecast and the impact to each one.
 Estimate the magnitude of the variables, e.g.:
 Best case
 Expected case
 Worst case
 Interactive approach can be used until a reasonable
consensus is reached.
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5.4 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques

 These techniques depends on historical

data (mathematical models)
 1. Simple moving average
 2. weighted moving average
 3. Regression analysis
 4. Exponential smoothing
 5. Seasonal forecasting

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5.4.1 Simple Moving Average

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5.4.2 Weighted Moving Average

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5.4.3 Regression Analysis

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 5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting
 Based on historical data, the process could show seasonal
characteristics. For example;
 Maintenance for air condition units & electricity demand is high during summer
season in Middle-East
 Rate of absenteeism might be higher at the beginning or the end of the week.
 Also, maintenance load might be higher in certain seasons due to weather and
operational conditions.
 Steps for Seasonal Forecasting are:
1. Plot Data and visually determine clear time series characteristics.
2. Determine the growth model (Table 5.3) and remove the growth component from the
data by determining an average period for each cycle and divide each data value by
the average (Table 5.4).
3. Determine if significant seasonality is present in data with growth component
removed (degrowthed). The Seasonality Index (Id ) is computed by taking the
average of the degrowthed data over the seasons (periods exhibit similar behavior,
Table 5.4).
4. Deseasonalize the original data and analyze the growth factor. Divide each value by
the appropriate seasonal index Table 5.5).
 Fit the data by some appropriate method (e.g. least squares, regression,…etc).

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 5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)

*Daily averages for each wk shows a growth model (7,9,11,13). E.g. 9/7= 1.29
*To remove growth, the data for each day in the wk are divided by the daily average .
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5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)

Id=Seasonality Index
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5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)
*Deseasonalize by dividing data in Table 5.3 by Id

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5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)

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5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)

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5.4.5 Seasonal Forecasting (Continue)

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5.6 Forecasting Maintenance Work

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 5.6 Forecasting Maintenance Work
* Backlog (delayed work) reports help the forecasting

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 5.7 Maintenance Capacity Planning
 Maintenance Capacity Planning determines optimal level of
resources (workers, skills, spares, inventory equipment and
tools) required to meet forecasted maintenance load that
consists of future load forecast plus maintenance backlog
(delayed work).
 Two approaches are used:
 Deterministic: Random variables (load, standard times,…etc.) are
fixed constants. Two methods:
1. Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method
2. Linear programming
 Stochastic (Two methods): Maintenance load, standard times, job
arrival times and other variables are random variables
1. Queuing Models (Random variables are fixed constants)
2. Stochastic (Random Simulation) (Random variables are not
constants)
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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method

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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method (Cont.)

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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method (Cont.)

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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method (Cont.)

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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method (Cont.)

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5.8.1 Heuristic (Forecasting)Tableau Method (Cont.)

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