Air transportation

2. Civil Aviation and Activity Spaces

Mr Xavier Leroy
Source : Jean Paul Rodrigue
 Intro
• Air transportation has transformed
society at scales ranging from the
local to the global. Aviation has made
economic and social activities in many
parts of the world faster, more
interconnected, more varied, and more
affluent. Still, those gains have come
with externalities such as congestion
and environmental challenges.
a. The acceleration of the material world
• As the fastest mode, air transportation has been associated with
the speeding up of daily life. This effect is most apparent with the
astonishing delivery times for goods ordered online from sites such as
Amazon.com. In 2019, Amazon offered two-day deliveries to all of the
US for millions of goods and next-day delivery for a narrower range
of goods. 
• The speed of the company’s
deliveries depended largely
on the multiplicity of
distribution centers Amazon
operated across the USA,
positioning many goods close
to consumers. Still, air cargo
has also been vital in rushing
goods from global suppliers
to distribution centers and
consumers. I
By the middle of 2019, Amazon’s rapidly
growing freighter fleet included nearly 50
aircraft as the company rushed to expand
next-day delivery services across the United
States.
The speed of human
transportation has changed
how people interact
• in ways that are both positive and negative. For instance, until the
advent of low-cost air transportation, the principal means of traveling
between Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi was by a 33- to 36-hour rail
journey on the Reunification Express or a similarly tedious bus
journey. Now, for those who can afford to fly (low-cost carriers have
broadened that population), the cities are just 2 hours apart. The route
has become among the most densely trafficked in the world, with 60
flights per day each way in 2018. The result has been an improvement
in the lives of traders, bureaucrats, students, tourists, and others
traveling between Vietnam’s two largest cities, and the same has
occurred in countless other city pairs.
On the other hand, the acceleration of passenger flows around
the world has also sped up the diffusion of infectious diseases.
• In late 2002, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), for instance, began
spreading slowly within southern China, but within days of reaching Hong
Kong. In February 2003, the disease was transmitted to Canada, Vietnam, the
United States, and the Philippines with direct nonstop services an important
factor behind a diffusion pattern that may at first glance appear random.
Ultimately, cases were reported in more than two dozen countries over a
matter of weeks, with airports becoming the key frontiers in trying to limit the
spread of SARS. Before aviation became widespread, the sheer size of the
world afforded a degree of protection from the development of pandemics.
But the world is, at least measured in terms of time, much smaller than a
century ago.
 In early 2020, the coronavirus epidemic first forced the shutdown of large
segments of the Chinese air transport system, including international air
services to Chinese cities.

• And then as the disease spread, travel bans cascaded across the planet
precipitating the worst crisis in the history of the airline industry. In the
United States, passengers cleared at Transportation Security Administration
(TSA) checkpoints reached a nadir of 87,534 on April 13, 2021, less than 4
percent of the level on the same date a year earlier. By mid-June 2021, with
vaccination increasingly widespread in the US, the number of passengers
processed daily by the TSA reached 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels, but
across much of the world, passenger air traffic remained in a deep slump.
Risk of new
pandemic
b. An interconnected world

At any given moment in 2018, an estimated 1.4 million people were airborne on
commercial airline flights somewhere in the world. Most were on short-haul flights
 linking nearby cities within the same country
 Change in the consummation profile

• At the regional scale, frequent flights

have amplified the political and economic
integration of regions such as the
European Union (EU) and the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In
Europe, the phrase “easyJet
Generation” refers to young people who
have grown up in a region where cheap
aviation and porous borders have
permitted unprecedented mobility.
The World’s Longest
Nonstop Air Transport
Routes, 2021
At the global scale, increasingly long-haul nonstop services (up to 
18 hours in duration) are both a response and a driver for globalization.

Most of the nodes for such flights

are world-cities, the command-and-
control centers of the global
economy. The so-called alpha++
(New York and London) and alpha+
(Hong Kong, Beijing, Singapore,
Shanghai, Sydney, Paris, Dubai, and
Tokyo) world cities also rank among
the best-connected cities in the
world’s airline networks.
c. A kaleidoscope of experience
• Cheap air transport has enlarged the geographic scope of everyday
life and, in so doing, has enriched the lives of many with
unprecedented variety. Take first the variety of goods. By one
common measure, the US imported more than four times the variety
of goods in 2018 as in 1972. Much of the increase was attributable to
the sharp reduction in transportation costs through containerized
maritime shipping, but lower-cost air cargo has also played a role.
• Efficient and affordable air cargo has contributed to changes in diet by making
available new products or products in seasons during which they would not be
available, to changes in retailing, and correspondingly to changes in manufacturing.
Examples abound, such as fresh produce grown in the southern hemisphere available
in the northern hemisphere during winter (a phenomenon sometimes referred to as
permanent global summertime) at least for affluent consumers.

• Likewise, air transport has been a catalyst for the emergence of an ever-greater variety
of tourist destinations. The markets with the fastest growth in passengers between
2017 and 2018 were Egypt (partly due to a recovery from an earlier terrorism-related
fall in visitors), Togo, Vietnam, and Georgia. All of these markets rely overwhelmingly
on arrivals by air from major source tourist markets such as the United States, Europe,
and China.
• Many perishables, for
instance, such as Valentine’s
Day roses bound from Kenya
to Europe or Colombia to the
US and fresh tuna shipped
from around the world to the
fish markets in Japan, move
exclusively by air. These
markets largely did not exist a
few decades ago.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPbaC8di43I&t=69s
d. The ascent of affluence
Air traffic is correlated with per capita income, but the relationship is
interdependent. More affluent populations can more easily afford what is usually
the most expensive mode, but aviation has also been catalytic to economic growth.
• In 2019, airlines flew approximately 4.5 billion passengers. The total
volume of air passengers equaled nearly 60 percent of the global
population. Of course, a much smaller share are actually air travelers
as individuals who use air transportation usually do so several times
per year. The propensity to fly is therefore highly uneven, as observed
in the passengers and freight markets. Alone, flights originating in
North America and Europe accounted for 47 percent of airline seat
capacity in 2018, a share that has been declining with faster growth in
other regions of the world. For instance, flights from China accounted
for 14 percent of seat capacity in 2018, up from 3 percent in 1998.
• Both passenger and cargo traffic have grown rapidly as higher
incomes translate into higher values for time and a stronger preference
for what is the fastest mode. In fact, both air passenger and air cargo
traffic have outpaced the growth of the broader global economy.
• Air transportation has experienced a high growth rate since the 1970s, with
air freight growing at a rate similar to that of passengers. The growth of air
traffic has also been characterized by several setbacks linked with recessions
(1973-1975; 1980-1984; 1990-1991; Asian Crisis of 1997; the Financial Crisis
of 2008-2009), geopolitical instability (Gulf War of 1991; September 11,
2001) and even the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). The latter represents the
most significant singular event impacting the airline industry, notably the
passenger segment that experienced a drop of 65% in 2020. Despite these
setbacks, growth appears to be continuous and will level off when
developing economies like China, India, and Brazil become mature markets.
When this takes place, the global demand for air transportation is likely to
peak.
• The main factors behind the growth of passengers and freight traffic,
as measured in passengers-km or tons-km, are linked with greater
volumes being carried and the average distance over which
passengers and freight are being carried. The changing structure of air
transport networks is also at play since the development of hubs
involves less direct connections and, therefore, longer average
distances being flown between airport pairs. The development of
passenger services tends to induce freight supply since each
additional plane usually offers additional cargo capacity, which can be
made available on the market. This additional capacity can incite new
cargo demands.
Between 1950 and 2020,
air passenger and freight
traffic grew systematically
faster than gross world
product (or GDP) as the
unique ability of air
transportation to collapse
space and time drew
more traffic. Correlation
analysis reveals strong
associations between air
transport activity and
GDP; with an R square of
0.96 for passengers-km
and 0.98 for freight. Thus,
each unit of economic
growth is directly
associated with a
corresponding level of
growth in passenger and
cargo air transportation.
• Air transportation endured a strong period of growth during the 1960s with passengers and
freight growth systematically in the 10%-20% range. Airports were being increasingly
congested and airline companies were looking for jet planes with higher capacities. The
surge of passengers-km in 1970 (+31.1%) is mainly attributed to the introduction of the
747, a large capacity airplane that revolutionized air transportation by offering lower fares,
high capacity, and a longer range of operation (thus more passengers-km). A setback for
air transportation came in 1973 with the Arab oil embargo and the subsequent recession
(1974-1975). The 1981-1984 recession, the Gulf War (1991), and the Asian Financial
Crisis (1997) were also economic setbacks that impacted air transportation.
• The events of September 11, 2001, linked with a recession had considerable impacts on air
transportation which experienced a global loss of 35 million passengers between 2000 and
2001. This was the second time in history that passenger air transport experienced a year
of negative growth. The third occurrence of negative growth took place in 2009, the
outcome of a major financial crisis and an issuing recession. The industry experienced a
drop of 9 million passengers between 2008 and 2009.
• The Covid-19 pandemic represents the fourth time the industry experienced a decline with
a strong divergence between passengers and freight activity, which was not apparent in
previous phases. While the number of passenger-km declined by 65.6% between 2019 and
2020 (a loss of 57 million passengers), the number of tons-km only declined by 0.1%.
e. The high costs of aviation
 aviation externalities have risen with traffic
volumes.
• The air transport sector accounts for about
3.5 percent of anthropogenic climate
change, but its share is expected to climb
towards mid-century.
• Aviation is heavily dependent on fossil
fuels and is likely to remain so after other
modes have transitioned to more
environmentally friendly fuel sources.
• Some airlines have experimented with
biofuels, but their impact remains
marginal so far.
• Between 2011 and 2019, about 175,000
flights were partly powered by biofuels,
but in 2019 more than 100,000 flights per
day were powered solely by conventional
fuels.
• Battery-electric aircraft are another
avenue to ease the sector’s global
climate change impacts. Air taxis
using this technology are expected to
launch as soon as 2024, but the
aircraft being developed are small,
both in their capacity (about five
passengers) and range (about 250
kilometers). Airships, which might be
suitable for freight transportation in
remote areas, comprise still another
area of innovation.
Aviation bad sides
• Aviation also has significant impacts at the local level, including
emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. As with
greenhouse gasses, however, emissions growth (at least when
measured per passenger-kilometer) has been stemmed by rapid
improvement in aviation technology, especially improvements in
engine efficiency. The average fuel burn per passenger-kilometer by
air transportation fell by 45 percent between 1968 and 2014, and the
introduction of a new generation of jet engines portends further
gains.
Noise reduction
• The most apparent externality at the local scale is aircraft noise, and
again technology has brought impressive gains. For instance, engine
manufacturer Pratt & Whitney claims up to a 75 percent reduction in
the noise footprint (i.e. the area near a runway affected by high noise
levels) for its newest large jet engine compared to similar-sized jets
operated with an earlier generation of engines. Still, the huge
increase in traffic volumes (at least before the COVID-19 pandemic)
partly offsets this and other technical improvements in aviation.
Seasonality in
Air Transport
Comment of the previous graph
• Significant differences exist between passenger and air carriers. Because of the
large amount of domestic traffic generated within the United States, China,
and Europe, the world’s top passenger carriers are either American, Chinese,
and European. Through mergers, American Airlines (with US Airways in
2013), Delta (with Northwest in 2010), and United (with Continental in 2010)
were able to become the world’s largest passenger airlines. Air transport has
boomed in China, with Chinese carriers starting to appear among the world’s
largest. It is also relevant to underline low-cost carriers such as Southwest in
the United States and Ryanair in Europe that achieved preeminence with
extensive service networks.
 Comment of the previous graph
• Among the world’s largest freight airlines, market dominance is achieved by
two specialized carriers; UPS and Federal Express. Their fleet is entirely
devoted to cargo operations, and they provide a function of cargo integration
through dedicated hubs such as Louisville (UPS) and Memphis (FedEx). Asian
freight carriers also play a significant role (e.g. Cathay Pacific, Korean Airlines,
Air China), benefiting from the growth of high-tech exports from Asian
economies to European and North American markets. Many regular airlines
have a cargo division that allows them to either ship freight through
dedicated cargo planes or through the bellyhold of their long-distance flights.
The emergence of the Middle East as a major cargo hub between East Asia
and Europe has propelled Emirates and Qatar among the top freight airlines,
a role they did not assume just a few years ago.
Comment of the previous graph
• Most airlines derive revenue from both passenger and air cargo operations.
This can take the form of a dedicated cargo branch operating cargo-only
planes to cargo carried in the bellyhold of passenger aircraft on scheduled
services. For North American airlines, the share of cargo in operating
revenue is usually less than 5%. The main reason is that many airlines are
mostly focusing on domestic services. Comparatively, European, Asian and
Latin American airlines have a higher share of cargo revenue, in part because
they are more focusing on long-distance services that are more prone to
include cargo. For instance, EVA Airways (Taiwan) and Korean Air have small
domestic markets, so the majority of their services are international. Thus,
cargo accounts for 29% and 24% of their revenues. Sill, two of the world’s
largest airlines, FedEx and UPS Airlines, are strictly focusing on cargo.