Chapter Two

Spotting E-Business Trends

What is a Trend?
A trend is a compass for navigating a sea of chaos Points the way to a new
Themes, like aging demographics or decreasing attention spans Cost curves - like Moores Law - decreasing hardware and computing costs Innovation - mobile devices

Trends are essential filters for managers so that they can separate signal from noise
Look Before, or youll find yourself behind. - Benjamin Franklin
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E-Business Trends
Trends: spotting, analyzing, and exploiting themes in technology, markets, etc.
Ways to think further into the future Identify ideas that will impact and disrupt business

Strategy: how to exploit e-business trends to create profits

Screen opportunities, identify value Translate trends into opportunities Translate opportunities into strategy Trend-spotting drives strategy
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E-Business Trends
Customer trends
Faster Service Self service More Product Choices Integrated solutions, not piecemeal products Convergence of sales and service Seamless Support Flexible fulfillment convenient delivery Increased Process Visibility

E-service - service and process trends

The rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. - Warren Buffet (CEO Berkshire Hathaway)
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E-Business Trends (cont.)

Organizational trends
Outsourcing -- retain the core, outsource the rest Contract manufacturing Virtual Distribution, Private hubs and Public exchanges

Employee Trends
Hiring the Best and Brightest Keeping talented employees

Enterprise technology trends

Integrated enterprise apps Multi-Channel Integration -- user view integration Middleware -- back-end integration

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E-Business Trends (cont.)

General Technology Trends
Wireless Web Applications Handheld Computing and Information Appliances Infrastructure convergence Application Service Providers Web Services E-learning tools and methods

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Consumer Trends: Faster Service

People want to maximize their limited available time
Value for the time Getting things done right everytime Right levels of service Entertaining and engaging experiences

Often, the answer is to integrate previously separate processes in fulfilling orders

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Consumer Trends: 100 Years of Convenience

1893 Sears and Roebuck offers first catalog 1993 Sears folds catalog operation 1997 online retailing takes off 2000 Amazon.com sends out print catalogs

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SelfSelf-Service: Empowered Customers

Self-Service is Maturing
24/7 ordering without sales personnel Disintermediation

source: www.s1.com

Self-Service complementing Full-service: Example from the Insurance Industry

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Integrated Solutions, Not Piecemeal Products

One-stop life-needs providers
Wal-Mart

One-stop lifestyle providers

The Gap

One-stop life-path providers

Toys-R-Us

Long term drivers and demand for integrated solutions are clear

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Integrated Solutions, Not Piecemeal Products

Past -- Product-based competition
Product functionality

Today -- Solution-based competition

Product and service
Comprehensive range of products and services Solution-oriented Integrated & Personalized

Price

Value

Lifetime value approach What is the total cost of ownership What is the ROI? Customer self-service Configurations geared to needs Simplified decision-making

Service

Customer empowerment

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e-Service Trends: Integrated Sales and Service

Cross-selling and up-selling while providing service.

Users expect more from a web site Customers demand customized and consistent experience across channels and products

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Increase Process Visibility

Let the customer have access to your tracking system Provide visibility into the supply chain
Wholesale Distributors

Suppliers

Manufacturers

Retailers

Customers

Information Flows Goods Flow

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Organizational Trends: Outsourcing

Focus on core competencies Cost reduction on a global scale IT enabled outsourcing models Global service outsourcing trends not local outsourcing anymore

Virtual enterprise designs Requirement Boundary Spanning Coordination

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Contract Manufacturing: Become Brand Intensive

Separation of marketing and manufacturing, allowing companies to specialize in one or the other Sara Lee example: Move from a capital/asset (or manufacturing) intensive company to a knowledge (and marketing) intensive firm

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Empower Employees
Give employees greater autonomy, decision making capability, advancement based on performance, e.g. Nordstrom Employee retention Dont give employees technology, give them solutions

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Enterprise Technology Trends: Integrated Enterprise Applications

Build vs Buy ERP software: SAP, PeopleSoft, Baan
Best-of-Breed Approach
Individual networked applications
Individual interfaces
Overhead of maintenance
Data replication
High lifecycle costs

mySAP.com Seamless integration Open integration architecture Highly flexible for new business requirements (SCM, eProcurement, BI, CRM)

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MultiMulti-channel Integration: Look at the Big Picture

Consistent service regardless of which of the companys channels the consumer is using. Example: Banks with branches, ATMs, call center, etc.
Web

Branch

Call center

ATM, In-store

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Middleware: Support the Integration Mandate

Integrate old and new applications so that all data is available. Middleware Enterprise Application Integration (EAI) Whats Next Web Services
Break large scale apps into smaller chunks Reassemble those components into services Aggregate internal and external information services

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General Technology Trends: Wireless Applications

Shift away from a PC-centric dependence towards a next-generation multi-device accessibility Internet will be embedded in an endless variety of applications Embedded Internet appliances will appear in the familiar form of washing machine, television, and remote control Most successful devices will be easy-to-use, task-oriented devices
Leverage benefits of Internet access to enhance their core functionalities
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Handheld Computing and Information Appliances

T h e N ew B attlefield
MP3 P layers WAP P hones M obile Tablets

T o m o rro w
S creenP hon es P D A s D igital C am eras

P ocket P C

A utos
P ag ers

Toys

P C s S ervers M ain fram es

In fo rm atio n A p p lian ces

To d a y
P C s , S e r ve rs M a in fra m e s
T im e S h a re E -m a il C hat W o rld W id e W ire le s s /M o b ile W eb In te rn e t

Em bedded In te rn e t

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Infrastructure Convergence: Voice, Data and Video

Voice, data, video on same network
Goal: Unification of voice and data to support customer contact anywhere, anytime, via any channel.

Improved speed and quality New customer contact points (eg Web TV)
Interesting research strategy via WebTV

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Infrastructure Convergence: Voice, Data and Video

Voice Office Device Independence Mobile IP Content Translation Quality of Service VPN Content Networks

Intranet

Travel Hotspots

Web Calendar Email

Home

Vacation Hotspots

Communication E-Learning

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Trend Common Attributes

Effectiveness Efficiency Integration Ability to handle change

The core aspect in trend-watching is balancing exuberance vs. uncertainty

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