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9925779 (2)
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A Brief History of Risk & Return
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example I: Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?
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Example II: Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?
Source: cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/millionaire/millionaire.html
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A Brief History of Risk and Return
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Dollar Returns
• Total dollar return is the return on an investment measured in
dollars, accounting for all interim cash flows and capital gains or
losses.
• Example:
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Percent Returns
• Total percent return is the return on an investment measured as a
percentage of the original investment. The total percent return is the
return for each dollar invested.
or
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Example: Calculating Total Dollar
and Total Percent Returns
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A $1 Investment in Different Portfolios, 1926—2002.
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The Historical Record: A Closer Look, I.
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The Historical Record: A Closer Look, II.
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The Historical Record: A Closer Look, III.
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The Historical Record: A Closer Look, IV.
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The Historical Record: A Closer Look, V.
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Historical Average Returns
• A useful number to help us summarize historical financial data is the
simple, or arithmetic average.
• Using the data in Table 1.1, if you add up the returns for large-
company stocks from 1926 through 2002, you get 939.4 percent.
• If you are making a guess about the size of the return for a year
selected at random, your best guess is 12.2%.
yearly return
Historical Average Return i1
n
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Average Annual Returns for Five Portfolios
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Average Returns: The First Lesson
• Risk premium: The extra return on a risky asset over the risk-
free rate; i.e., the reward for bearing risk.
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Average Annual Risk Premiums
for Five Portfolios
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Why Does a Risk Premium Exist?
• The Second Lesson: The greater the potential reward, the greater
the risk.
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Return Variability: The Statistical Tools
• The formula for return variance is ("n" is the number of returns):
R R
2
i
2
VAR(R) σ i1
N 1
SD(R) σ VAR(R)
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Return Variability Review and Concepts
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Frequency Distribution of Returns on
Common Stocks, 1926—2002
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Example: Calculating Historical Variance
and Standard Deviation
• Let’s use data from Table 1.1 for large-company stocks, from 1926 to
1930.
• The spreadsheet below shows us how to calculate the average, the
variance, and the standard deviation (the long way…).
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Historical Returns, Standard Deviations, and
Frequency Distributions: 1926—2002
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The Normal Distribution and
Large Company Stock Returns
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Return Variability: “Non-Normal” Days
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Arithmetic Averages versus
Geometric Averages
• When should you use the arithmetic average and when should
you use the geometric average?
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Example: Calculating a
Geometric Average Return
• Again, let’s use the data from Table 1.1 for large-company stocks, from
1926 to 1930.
• The spreadsheet below shows us how to calculate the geometric
average return.
(1.5291)^(1/5): 1.0887
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Arithmetic Averages versus
Geometric Averages
• The geometric average tells you what you actually earned per
year on average, compounded annually.
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Geometric versus Arithmetic Averages
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Risk and Return
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Historical Risk and Return
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A Look Ahead
• You will learn how to value different assets and make informed,
intelligent decisions about the associated risks.
• You will also learn about different trading mechanisms, and the
way that different markets function.
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Useful Internet Sites
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Chapter Review, I.
• Returns
– Dollar Returns
– Percentage Returns
• The Historical Record
– A First Look
– A Longer Range Look
– A Closer Look
• Average Returns: The First Lesson
– Calculating Average Returns
– Average Returns: The Historical Record
– Risk Premiums
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Chapter Review, II.
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Assignment Number 1