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Operations Management: Chapter 4 - Forecasting
Operations Management: Chapter 4 - Forecasting
Management
Chapter 4 -
Forecasting
PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer/Render
Principles of Operations Management, 6e
Operations Management, 8e
© 2006
© 2006 Prentice
Prentice Hall, Inc. Hall, Inc. 4–1
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you
should be able to :
Identify or Define:
Forecasting
Types of forecasts
Time horizons
Approaches to forecasts
Trend Cyclical
Seasonal Random
Seasonal peaks
Actual
demand
Average
demand over
Random four years
variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Year Figure 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 35
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or
downward pattern
Changes due to population,
technology, age, culture, etc.
Typically several years
duration
0 5 10 15 20
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 38
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, ‘residual’
fluctuations
Due to random variation or
unforeseen events
Short duration and
nonrepeating
M T W T F
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 39
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next period is
the same as demand in most
recent period
e.g., If May sales were 48, then June
sales will be 48
Sometimes cost effective and
efficient
22 –
20 –
18 –
16 –
14 –
12 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
20 – Actual
sales
15 –
Moving
10 – average
5 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Figure 4.2
J F M A M J J A S O N D
st period’s forecast
(last period’s actual demand
– last period’s forecast)
Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)
Weight Assigned to
Most 2nd Most 3rd Most 4th Most 5th Most
Recent Recent Recent Recent Recent
Smoothing Period Period Period Period Period
Constant ( ) (1 - ) (1 - )2
(1 - )3
(1 - )4
225 –
Actual = .5
demand
200 –
Demand
175 –
= .1
| | | | | | | | |
150 –
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
n
100 ∑ |actuali - forecasti|/actuali
MAPE = i=1
n
Ft = (At - 1) + (1 - )(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
Tt = (Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - )Tt - 1
Step 1: Compute Ft
Step 2: Compute Tt
Step 3: Calculate the forecast FITt = Ft + Tt
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 68
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 69
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24
6 21
7 31
8 28
9 36
10
Table 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 70
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 1: Forecast for Month 2
6 21
7 31 F2 = A1 + (1 - )(F1 + T1)
8 28
9 36
F2 = (.2)(12) + (1 - .2)(11 + 2)
10 = 2.4 + 10.4 = 12.8 units
Table 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 71
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 2: Trend for Month 2
6 21
7 31 T2 = (F2 - F1) + (1 - )T1
8 28
9 36
T2 = (.4)(12.8 - 11) + (1 - .4)(2)
10 = .72 + 1.2 = 1.92 units
Table 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 72
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 3: Calculate FIT for Month 2
6 21
7 31 FIT2 = F2 + T1
8 28
FIT2 = 12.8 + 1.92
9 36
10 = 14.72 units
Table 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 73
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Table 4.1
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 74
Exponential Smoothing with
Trend Adjustment Example
35 –
Actual demand (At)
30 –
Product demand
25 –
20 –
15 –
10 –
Forecast including trend (FITt)
5 –
0 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 4.3
Time (month)
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 75
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points
to project into the medium-to-long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
y^ = a + bx
^ where y= computed value of the
variable to be predicted (dependent
variable)
a= y-axis intercept
b= slope of the regression line
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc.
x= the independent variable 4 – 76
Values of Dependent Variable
Least Squares Method
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y^ = a + bx
y^ = a + bx
xy - nxy
b=
x2 - nx2
a = y - bx
130 –
120 –
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
| | | | | | | | |
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 85
Least Squares Requirements
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Time
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 94
Monitoring and Controlling
Forecasts
Tracking Signal
Measures how well the forecast is
predicting actual values
Ratio of running sum of forecast errors
(RSFE) to mean absolute deviation (MAD)
Good tracking signal has low values
If forecasts are continually high or low, the
forecast has a bias error
Tracking RSFE
signal =
MAD
∑(actual demand in
period i -
forecast demand
Tracking in period i)
signal = ∑|actual - forecast|/n)
Acceptable
0 MADs range
Time
1 90-10/10
100= -1 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95
-15/7.5
100= -2 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 0/10
100= 0 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100-10/10
110= -1 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125
+5/11110
= +0.5+15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140
+35/14.2
110= +2.5
+30 +35 30 85 14.2