Decline Curve Analysis

Introduction
Future Forecasting Methods
It is absolutely imperative to predict the ultimate gas
recoveries and performance of the individual wells or
from entire fields.
 To predict the economic life of the well or of the entire field

Different methods are used for reserve estimation.

 Material balance Equation
 Decline Curve Analysis
 Simulation Studies
Extensive production history is required for
aforementioned methods
Decline Curve Analysis
Decline curves are one of the most extensively data analysis
method.
It uses past trends to predict future performance for analysis
with assumption that past trend will continue in the future
 Rate versus Time
 Rate versus cumulative production plots
Decline curve analysis method can be used to estimate
 Original Gas in Place
 Predict ultimate gas reserves at future abandonment pressure
 Economic Production Rate
 Remaining productive life of a well or the entire field
 Formation permeability and skin factor
Decline Curve Analysis Classification
Two kinds of decline-curve analysis Technique

1. The classical curve fit of historical production data

(Conventional Analysis Technique)
2. The type-curve matching technique

 These decline curves are characterized by three

factors:
 Initial production rate, or the rate at particular time
 Curvature of the decline
 Rate of decline
1. Conventional Analysis Technique
Arps(1945) proposed that the “curvature” in the production
rate versus time curve can be expressed mathematically.

Depending on the value of the decline exponent “b” above

equation has three different forms
I. Exponential Decline
II. Harmonic Decline
III. Hyperbolic Decline
I. Exponential Decline
It is also called constant-percentage decline.

The graphical presentation of this type of decline curve

indicates that a plot of log(q(t) ) vs t on a semi-log scale
or a plot q(t) vs Gp(t) on a Cartesian scale will produce
linear relationships.

Mathematically, it is represented as
and
II. Harmonic Decline
When b=1 the decline is said to be harmonic.
Mathematically it is given as
and

After rearranging the above equation becomes

and

Above equation suggests that qt vs t on a log-log scale

will yield a straight line while a plot of log(qt ) vs Gp(t)
will yield a straight line on semi-log scale.
III. Hyperbolic Decline
When the value of “b” is greater than ‘0’ but less than
‘1’ then decline is said to be hyperbolic decline.

If we take log on both sides of Arp equation then the

equation becomes

If rate/time data can be modeled with the hyperbolic

equation, then a log-log plot of q(t) vs (1+bDit) will
exhibit straight line with a slope of 1/b and an intercept
of log(q(t))
Continued…
Cumulative production equation

Since there are two unknowns so the value of ‘Di’ and

‘b’. So it is required to have prior estimates of ‘b’ and
‘D’

Iterative process is used to estimate the value of ‘b’

and ‘Di’.