Hypothesis,

Interpretation,
Validation,
and
Conclusion.
Dr. Eng Febri
Zukhruf
Hypothesi
sConclusion
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation, and
Hypothesi
s•
Has been elaborated by other
lecturers?
• If yes lets just briefly revisit this part..
Hypothesi
s
Basic step in scientific method:
1. Asking a question
2. Completing research
3. Making a hypothesis
4. Planning an investigation
5. Recording and analyzing
data
6. Explaining the data
7. Communicating the results
Hypothesi
s•
A scientist bases his/her hypothesis both on what he or she
has observed, and on what he or she already knows to be
true.
• The hypothesis that a scientist creates leads him or her to make
a prediction that can be tested next in an investigation.
Question
Examples
A scientist notices that the tomato plant closest to her neighbor’s yard
is much taller than any of the other plants in her garden bed. She
also notices that the neighbor turns on his sprinkler system every
day, and that some of this water reaches only her big plant.

The scientist creates a question: Does daily watering from a

sprinkler make a tomato plant grow faster than other tomato
plants?
Hypothesis
Examples
The scientist creates this hypothesis to address her question: “If
I water the tomatoes in my garden daily then they will grow
faster because tomatoes grow more when they get more
water.”
Hypothesis
Examples
Notice how the example scientist’s hypothesis makes a prediction
that
can be tested:
• “If I water the tomatoes in my garden daily then they will
grow faster because tomatoes grow more when they get
more water.”
• What will the scientist do in the investigation to test her
hypothesis?
Hypothesis
Concept
•
Hypotheses are predictions about the relationship among two
or more variables or groups based on a theory or previous
research (Pittenger, 2003)
 A hypothesis is not just a prediction,
a
hypothesis goes
further.

Hypothesi A prediction is an educated

guess about the expected
s Concept outcome of a specific test,

A hypothesis includes a possible

explanation about why the
expected outcome of a test will
occur
Hypothesis
Concept
• Example Prediction: If it gets cold outside the leaves will
change colors.
• Example Hypothesis: If it gets cold outside then the leaves will
change color because leaf color change is related to
temperature.
 A good hypothesis includes two
parts:

a prediction about
the outcome of a
scientific investigation
Hypothesi
s Concept
an explanation for why
those results will occur
Hypothesis
Concept
A good hypothesis is practically worded like this:
• If…..then…...because…….
• I predict…because
• I think…because
Although, in the several case, the explanation (i.e., “because” word)
is
not explicitly included in the hypothesis
Even “hypothesis term” frequently stated in the implicit manner in
several reputable journal article.
Interpretation
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation, and
Conclusion
 1st Polling

• Does the
interpretation
appropriate?
• Please poll at
our online
course website.
Definitio
n
• Interpretation refers to the task of drawing inferences from
the collected facts after an analytical and/or experimental
study.
• Interpretation is an art that one learns through practice
and experience.
• The task of interpretation has three major aspects
 The effort to establish continuity in research through linking the
results of a
given study with those of another.
 The establishment of some explanatory concepts.
 what has been observed by researcher in the course of the
study.
Why
Interpretation?
• Links up his findings with those of other studies, having the same
abstract principle, and thereby can predict about the concrete
world of events.
• Leads to the establishment of explanatory concepts that can serve
as a guide for future research studies.
• Locates the real significance of his research findings, hence,
researcher can better appreciate about “why his findings are”,
or “what they are”
Example (the establishment of explanatory
concepts)

Yamada et al. / Transportation Science 43(2),

2009
Example (Links up his findings
)

Yamada and Zukhruf / Transportation Research Part E 75

(2015)
Example (Locates the real significance of his
research findings)

Frazila and Zukhruf / International Journal of Operations Research

(2017)
General Consideration for
Interpreting
• must satisfy himself that the data are appropriate, trustworthy
and adequate for drawing inferences; proper analysis has been
done through statistical methods
• must remain cautious about the errors that can possibly arise in
the process of interpreting results.
• must always keep in view that the task of interpretation is very
much intertwined with analysis and cannot be distinctly
separated.
• must remember that “ideally in the course of a research study,
there should be constant interaction between initial hypothesis,
empirical observation and theoretical conceptions.”
General Consideration for
Interpreting
• Must give reasonable explanations of the relations which he
has found.
• Before embarking upon final interpretation, to consult
someone having insight into the study (referee/review).
• The task of interpretation only conducted after considering all
relevant factors affecting the problem to avoid false
generalization.
Validation
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation,
and
Conclusion
Accuracy and
Precision
Accuracy and
Precision
Accuracy
• Accuracy is how close a measured value is to the true value.
• The ISO defines an accurate measurement has no systematic
error
and no random error.
Precision
• Precision is how close the measured values are to each other
• Precision is how consistent results are when measurements are
repeated.
 Verification means checking that the data has been
entered correctly, It is a check for accuracy.

Validation means checking that the data makes sense, it

checks
Validity

Verification and Validation

Verification and Validation
(Data)
Verification
(Model)
Verification: "Are we building the model
right?“
• Is the model implemented correctly in
the
computer?
• Are the input parameters and logical
structure
of the model correctly represented?
Verification
(Model) Summing
Model
A, C
B
C= A+B
A C=
=3 4 Result
B= verified
1
Sorting Model
(Ascending)
M=[A, R
B,C,D]
Asc(M)
R=[1,3,2,4]
M=[3,
4,1,2]
 Validation
(Model)
Validation: "Are we building the right model?“
• It is utilized to determine that a model
represents the real system.
• Validation is usually achieved through
the calibration of the model, an
iterative process of comparing the
model to actual system.
• This process is repeated until model
accuracy is judged to be acceptable.
Calibration and Validation
(Model) C o m p a r e model
Initial
to reality
M o de l
R ev i s e
C o m p a r e
revised model
First revision
Real of model
to reality
S y s te m R ev i s e

C o m p a r e 2 n d
revised S e c o n d
model
to reality revision
of
model
R ev i s e
<Iterative process of calibrating a model>
Yamada et al. / Transportation Science 43(2),
2009

Zukhruf et al. / J. JSCE, Ser.

D3 (Infrastructure Planning
and Management) 2014.
Hypothesis, Interpretation, Validation,
and Conclusion

Conclusio
n
Conclusio
n
• In academic essays, introductions and conclusions are the first
and last impression of your paper – much like in real life, you
should always leave a good first and last impression to make
your paper stand out!
• Conclusions are often the most difficult part of an essay to write,
and many writers feel that they have nothing left to say after having
written the paper.
• A writer needs to keep in mind that the conclusion is often what a
reader remembers best.
Conclusio
n
•The introduction begins with a general approach
to the topic and then moves toward the more
specific aspect(s) of it

•The conclusion begins with the more specific

aspect(s) and moves toward the general topic of
your essay
Frazila and Zukhruf, Journal of the
Eastern Asia Society for
Transportation Studies (2015)
Frazila and Zukhruf, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (2015)
STRESS THE IMPORTANCE GIVE THE PAPER A SENSE LEAVE A FINAL IMPRESSION
OF RESEARCH OF COMPLETENESS ON THE READER

Conclusio
Conclusio
n
• Answer the question "So What?"
 Show your readers why this paper was important. Show them that your research
was meaningful and useful.
• Synthesize, don't summarize
 Don't simply repeat things that were in your thesis. They have read it. Show them
how the
points you made and the support and examples you used were not random, but fit
together.
• Redirect your readers
 Give your reader something to think about, perhaps a way to use your thesis in the
"real" world. If your introduction went from general to specific, make your conclusion
go from specific to general. Think globally.
• Create a new meaning
 You don't have to give new information to create a new meaning. By demonstrating how
your ideas work together, you can create a new picture. Often the sum of the paper is
worth more than its parts.
"So why this paper was important

What?"

Yamada and Zukhruf / Transportation Research Part E 75

(2015)
Synthesize, don't Don't simply repeat things
summarize

Frazila, Zukhruf, Burhani/ IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 158
(2018)
Redirect your a way to use your thesis in the "real" world

readers

Frazila and Zukhruf / MATEC Web of Conferences 147, 02002

(2018)
Create a new
meaning how your ideas work together

Zukhruf and Frazila / IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 158
(2018)
Assignmen
t•
Create your thesis presentation within 10 pages, which
includes:
 Introduction
 Hypothesis
 Proposed Model (if any)
 Data Verification and Validation (if any)
 Model Verification and Validation (if any)
 (expected) Conclusion

• Please submit by 10.00 WIB, 22-11-2018

 Hypothesis,

(Logical) Interpretation,
Validation,
and
Fallacies Conclusion
(Logical)
Fallacies
• Fallacies are arguments that lead to a mistaken or
misleading conclusion.
• Logical fallacies are often used to strengthen an argument, but if
the reader detects them the argument can backfire, and damage
the
writer’s credibility
Why study logical
fallacies?
• It is important to develop logical fallacy detection skills in your
own
writing, as well as others’.
• Think of this as “intellectual kung-fu: the art of intellectual self
defense.” (Logical Fallacies Handlist)
Hasty
Generalization
Type of Fallacies

• Definition: Making assumptions about a whole group or range of cases based

on a sample that is inadequate (usually because it is atypical or just too
small).
Example:
• "My roommate said her philosophy class was hard, and the one I'm in is hard,
too. All philosophy classes must be hard!"
 Two people's experiences are, in this case, not enough on which to base a conclusion.
2nd Polling
• Does the case below can be included as hasty generalization?

Dengan berdasarkan kepada perhitungan pada waktu puncak

kemacetan pada hari kerja, dapat disimpulkan bahwa kemacetan
di Jakarta mengakibatkan kerugian 5 miliar dollar AS per
tahunnya,
Post hoc (false
cause)
•Definition: Assuming that because B comes after A, A caused
B.
• Of course, sometimes one event really does cause another one that
comes later--for example, if I register for a class, and my name later
appears on the roll, it's true that the first event caused the one that
came later. But sometimes two events that seem related in time
aren't really related as cause and event. That is, correlation isn't the
same thing as causation.
• Examples: "President Jones raised taxes, and then the rate of
violent crime went up. Jones is responsible for the rise in
crime.“
• The increase in taxes might or might not be one factor in the
rising crime rates, but the argument hasn't shown us that one
caused the other.
3rd Polling
• Does the case below can be included as Post hoc (false
cause)?
Thank
you.
Dr. Eng Febri Zukhruf
Appeal to
Pity
• Definition: The appeal to pity takes place when an arguer tries to
get people to accept a conclusion by making them feel sorry for
someone.

• Example: "I know the exam is graded based on performance, but

you should give me an A. My cat has been sick, my car broke
down, and I've had a cold, so it was really hard for me to study!"
• The conclusion here is "You should give me an A." But the criteria for
getting an A have to do with learning and applying the material from the
course; the principle the arguer wants us to accept (people who have a
hard week deserve A's) is clearly unacceptable.
Missing the
Point
• Definition: The premises of an argument do support a particular conclusion--
but
not the conclusion that the arguer actually draws.

• Example: "The seriousness of a punishment should match the seriousness of

the crime. Right now, the punishment for drunk driving may simply be a fine.
But drunk driving is a very serious crime that can kill innocent people. So the
death penalty should be the punishment for drunk driving."
 The argument actually supports several conclusions-- "The punishment for drunk driving
should be very serious," in particular--but it doesn't support the claim that the death
penalty, specifically, is warranted.
Slippery
Slope
• Definition: The arguer claims that a sort of chain reaction, usually ending
in
some dire consequence, will take place, but there's really not
enough
•
evidence for that assumption.
The arguer asserts that if we take even one step onto the "slippery slope,"
we will
end up sliding all the way to the bottom; he or she assumes we can't stop
halfway down the hill.

• Example: "Animal experimentation reduces our respect for life. If we

don't
respect life, we are likely to be more and more tolerant of violent acts
like
war and murder. Soon our society will become a battlefield in which
everyone constantly fears for their lives. It will be the end of
civilization. To
prevent this terrible consequence, we should make
animal
•
experimentation illegal right now."
Since animal experimentation has been legal for some time
and civilization has not
Appeal to
Authority
• Definition: Often we add strength to our arguments by referring to
respected sources or authorities and explaining their positions on
the issues we're discussing.
• If, however, we try to get readers to agree with us simply by impressing them
with a famous name or by appealing to a supposed authority who really isn't
much of an expert, we commit the fallacy of appeal to authority.

• Example: "We should abolish the death penalty. Many respected

people, such as actor Guy Handsome, have publicly stated their
opposition to it."
• While Guy Handsome may be an authority on matters having to do with acting,
there's no particular reason why anyone should be moved by his political
opinions-- he is probably no more of an authority on the death penalty than the
person writing the paper.
Straw
Man
• Definition: One way of making our own arguments stronger is to
anticipate and respond in advance to the arguments that an
opponent might make. The arguer sets up a wimpy version of the
opponent’s position and tries to score point by knocking it down.

• Example: "Feminists want to ban all pornography and punish

everyone who reads it! But such harsh measures are surely
inappropriate, so the feminists are wrong: porn and its readers
should be left in peace."
• The feminist argument is made weak by being overstated--in fact, most
feminists do not propose an outright "ban" on porn or any punishment for
those who merely read it; often, they propose some restrictions on things
like child porn, or propose to allow people who are hurt by porn to sue
publishers and producers, not readers, for damages.