What Does a

Recession Mean for

the Real Estate
Industry?

North Pointe Sales Meeting

August 2, 2022

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

1
OUR HOMESALE COMPLETE SERVICES

Dan Ranck James Ream

(717) 271-2400 (717) 286-9703
NMLS # 140989 NMLS # 1598468

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

2
OUR HOMESALE COMPLETE SERVICES

Sarah Tompos Sheri Kelly

(717) 587-7666 (717) 669-2065
stompos@homesale.com skelly@homesale.com

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

3
OUR HOMESALE COMPLETE SERVICES

James White
(717) 575-4014
JamesWhite@homesale.com

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

4
YOUR HOME WARRANTY EXPERT

Desmond George
(267) 303-7225
degeorge@cinchhs.com
cinchrealestate.com
Mobile Business Card
Text dgeorge to 88500

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

5
NEW PLAN & PRICING HIGHLIGHTS

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

6
NEW PLAN & PRICING HIGHLIGHTS

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

7
2022 BHHS AWARDS CRITERIA

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

8
2022 HOMESALE AWARDS CRITERIA

• Homesale Complete Team of the Year

• Homesale Complete Agent of the Year
• First Year Excellence Agent of the Year
The newly licensed independent agent who does
the most closed transactions during their first 12
months.
• Top 10 Individual Agents by GCI
• Top 10 Teams by GCI
• Top 10 Individual Agents by Units
• Top 10 Teams by Units
YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.
9
NORTH POINTE RENOVATIONS

• Lobby and conference rooms getting new

flooring

• Monday, August 15 – Friday, August 19

• Meetings and settlements should be held in

the training room

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

10
HOMESALE PREMIER LISTING PACKAGE
* * * Started August 1st * * *
● 7-Day Chalk Digital New Listing Targeted Ads on Facebook
and popular mobile apps (CNN, The Weather Channel, ESPN
and more) with seller receiving a copy of the ad
● 2-Day New Listing & Open House Targeted
Facebook/Instagram Ad
● Online Property Listing Page
● Syndicated to 32,000+ websites
● Weekly Seller Report
● Digital Single Page Property Flyer
● YouTube Video
* * * Additional Listing Packages Available * * *

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

11
How to Access Company Rosters
& Phone Lists

• Click the in your company Google account

• Click on the Google Drive icon shown above
• Click ‘Shared Drives’
• Click ‘Company Rosters’
• Click ‘Company Master Roster’

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

12
CLOZE CRM (https://youtu.be/RhrwN8_poe8)

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

13
CLOZE CRM

Two Training Options Available

Virtual Training with Live Instructor Recorded Videos at your own pace

Training #1 - Overview & October 11 One recording at a time to make sure

Set up Expectations 1:00-2:00 PM you are comfortable navigating what
you’ve learned
Training #2 - Basic October 17
Functionality 1:30-2:30 PM

Training #3 - Advanced October 25

Functionality & Additional 1:00-2:00 PM
Details

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

14
QUICK BUY VIRTUAL TRAINING OPPORTUNITY

Wednesday, August 24
2:00-3:00 PM

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

15
NEXT NINJA SELLING INSTALLATION

Dates: September 12 - 15, 2022

Location: Wyndham Garden York, 2000 Loucks Road, York, PA 17408
Cost: $750 ($100 reimbursement/transaction on new closed transactions through September 15,
2023)

Installation Schedule:
Monday, 9/12 - check in 7:45-8:15am
Daily Attendance 8:30am - 5:30pm (lunch included)

Space limited to only 100 attendees

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

16
WHAT DOES A RECESSION MEAN FOR
THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY?

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

17
ARE WE IN A RECESSION?

U.S. Economy Shows Another Decline,

Fanning Recession Fears

(July 28, 2022)

U.S. teetering on brink of recession as GDP

contracts in second quarter

(July 28, 2022)

Biden Faces Recession Worries After Six
Months of Economic Contraction

(July 28, 2022)

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

18
FOUR KEY AREAS TO EXAMINE

1. Foreclosures
2. Interest Rates
3. Buyer Demand
4. Housing Supply

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

19
THE FORECLOSURE FRONT

1. HEADLINE: The number of active foreclosures edged up

in March by more than 7,000. This is the first YOY
increase in 10 years.

• The number of loans in active foreclosure is still way

below historic norms
• The CARES ACT drove all normal foreclosure activity to
a halt

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

20
THE FORECLOSURE FRONT

2. HEADLINE: More than 78,000 properties had a

foreclosure filing during the 1st quarter of 2022. This is
up 39% from the previous quarter and up 132% from a
year ago.

• Mortgage servicers are catching up on processing

loans that were already in default prior to pandemic
• Foreclosure activity is only running at 50% of the
normal level

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

21
THE FORECLOSURE FRONT

3. HEADLINE: Mortgage delinquencies over 90 days past

due are 70% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• In March, mortgage delinquencies fell 12% for the
strongest single month improvement in 20 years.
• 30-day delinquencies plunged 20% from February

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

22
“
Throughout history, during a recessionary
period, interest rates go up at the beginning of
the recession. But in order to come out of a
recession, interest rates are lowered to
stimulate the economy moving forward.
Historically, we have seen a repeated uptick in
“
interest rates followed by lowered interest
rates.

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

23
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES & RECESSIONS
20%

18%
18% to 13%
16%
16% to 11.8% Tom Starts Real Estate Career
14%

12%
11% to 8.8%
10%

8%

6% to 4.9%
6%
7.4% to 6.8%
4%

3.8% to 2.8%
2%

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Recessions SOURCE: Freddie Mac, Mortgage Specialists

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

24
MORTGAGE RATES (January 1 – July 28, 2022)

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

SOURCE: Freddie Mac

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

25
“
Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates
have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points
from the peak seen during the recession to the
trough.
And in many cases, they continued to fall
after the fact as it takes some time to turn
“
things around even when the recession is
technically over.

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

26
BUYER DEMAND

Percentage of Sellers receiving multiple

offers on their home

SOURCE: Offers submitted by Redfin agents

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

27
BUYER DEMAND

As buyer demand moderates, the intensity of bidding

wars will ease resulting in fewer Multiple-Offer
scenarios.

April 2022 May 2022 June 2022

5.5 offers 4.2 offers 3.4 offers

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

28
BUYER DEMAND

As buyer demand moderates, the intensity of bidding

wars will ease resulting in fewer Multiple-Offer
scenarios. SELLERS:
April 2022 Getting 3+ offers on a home
May 2022 June 2022
5.5 offers
is still astounding3.4 offers
4.2 offers

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

29
BUYER DEMAND

Fewer buyers are bidding over asking price, but it’s

still a competitive market.

April 2022 May 2022 June 2022

61% 55% 51%

sold over sold over sold over
asking asking asking

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

30
BUYER DEMAND

Fewer buyers are bidding over asking price, but it’s

still a competitive market.

April 2022 SELLERS:

May 2022 June 2022

Receiving offers with 50% over

61% asking price
55% is unheard of
51%
sold over sold over sold over
asking asking asking

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

31
LANCASTER COUNTY ACTIVE LISTINGS (EOM)

500
+97%
since the beginning of the year 476
400

387
362
# of Listings

300
324
295
200 242

100

0
Jan ‘22 Feb ‘22 Mar ‘22 Apr ‘22 May ‘22 June ‘22

SOURCE: Bright MLS

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

32
INCREASING INVENTORY LEVELS

Housing inventory is increasing which means more

options for Buyers.
Months Supply

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

33
INCREASING INVENTORY LEVELS

Housing inventory is increasing which means more

options for Buyers.
Months Supply
SELLERS:
They still hold the upper
hand in negotiating

SOURCE: NAR, GlobeNewsWire

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

34
MARKET SCORECARD

1. Foreclosures B  S 

2. Interest Rates B 
 S 
3. Buyer Demand B 
 S 

4. Housing Supply B 
 S 


YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

35
Smooth seas do
not make skillful
sailors
- African Proverb

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

36
PRESENTER CONTACT INFO

Tom Blefko
Associate Broker
REALTOR®
Director of Operations
North Pointe Office
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
Homesale Realty
Office: (717) 560-9100
Cell: (717) 587-6600
Email: tblefko@homesale.com

YOUR WORLD. UNDER ONE ROOF.

37