ANALYTICAL TOOLS FOR

POLICY/PROGRAM/PROJEC
T DEVELOPMENT
CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAM FOR DENR PLANNING PERSONNEL ON
CUSTOMIZED POLICY, PLANNING, BUDGETING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND
MONITORING & EVALUATION CYCLE

BRENDA B. FURAGGANAN
ROYCE HOTEL, CLARK FREEPORT ZONE, PAMPANGA
13 MARCH 2018
SESSION OBJECTIVES

• INTRODUCE PARTICIPANTS TO THE MOST

COMMON ANALYTICAL TOOLS USED FOR
POLICY, PROGRAM AND PROJECT
DEVELOPMENT
OUTLINE

• POLICY/PROGRAM/PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CYCLE

• SITUATION ANALYSIS (SA)
o PESTLE
• PROBLEM ANALYSIS (PA)
o PROBLEM-OBJECTIVE-SOLUTIONS TREES
• DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRAM/PROJECT LOGFRAME
• DECISION ANALYSIS (DA)
o BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS (BCA) VS. COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS (CEA)
• POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS (PPA)
o RISK ANALYSIS
POLICY/PROGRAM/PROJECT
DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
Program/Project Cycle
Identification

Design/
Evaluation
Formulation

Implementation Appraisal
Source: World Bank website
 Policy Cycle
Agenda Setting

Policy
Maintenance/ Policy
Succession/ Formulation
Termination

Policy Policy
Evaluation Legitimation

Policy
Implementation

Source: CDC, 2012 Source: Patton and Sawicki, 1986

 Agenda Setting
Identification

Policy
Maintenance/ Policy
Succession/ Formulation
Termination
Design/
Evaluation
Formulation

Policy Policy
Evaluation Legitimation

Implementation Appraisal
Policy
Implementation

Program/Project Cycle Policy Cycle

INSIGHTS • THE USE OF A CYCLE MAY TEND TO
• A CYCLE APPROACH DIVIDES THE OVERSIMPLIFY A COMPLEX WORLD
POLICY/PROGRAM/PROJECT PROCESS • IN REALITY, EACH STAGE IN A CYCLE
INTO A SERIES OF STAGES
MAY ALSO COMPRISE A CYCLE AND
• IT DEPICTS A CONTINUOUS PROCESS THUS THE CYCLE ITSELF MAY BE SEEN
RATHER THAN A SINGLE EVENT MORE AS A COLLECTION OF
• STAGES IN A DEVELOPMENT CYCLE THOUSANDS OF DEVELOPMENT
CYCLES, WHICH INTERACT WITH EACH
SERVE AS GUIDES, THESE ARE NOT
OTHER TO PRODUCE MUCH LESS
INTRACTABLE; THEY EXPAND OR
PREDICTABLE OUTCOMES
CONTRACT DEPENDING ON THE
ORGANIZATION’S PRACTICE
• IT CAN BE APPLIED TO VARIOUS
CONTEXTS AND SITUATIONS
Situation
Problem

SITUATION & PROBLEM ANALYSIS

 SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
• THE PROCESS OF SYSTEMATICALLY
COLLECTING AND ANALYZING A
SECTOR/ORGANIZATION’S PAST AND
PRESENT CONDITIONS (EVIDENCED
BY DATA) OF ITS INTERNAL AND
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT IN
ORDER TO IDENTIFY:
o FORCES THAT MAY INFLUENCE
ITS PERFORMANCE AND THUS,
SUCCESS; AND
o GAPS BETWEEN ITS FUTURE AND
CURRENT RESOURCE
REQUIREMENTS.
 PROBLEM ANALYSIS

• THE PROCESS OF SYSTEMATICALLY

STUDYING AND ANALYZING AN
OVERRIDING PROBLEM AND
ESTABLISHING ITS CAUSE AND
EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS TO OTHER
PROBLEMATIC ISSUES FOR THE
PURPOSE OF UNDERSTANDING HOW
IT CAN POTENTIALLY BE RESOLVED.
• A KEY ELEMENT IS THE
IDENTIFICATION OF “ROOT CAUSES,”
AND NOT SIMPLY THE SYMPTOMS
EXERCISE 1
1
2
3
4
5
TOOL FOR ANALYZING A
SITUATION
P Political issues include political stability, employment laws, safety
regulations and trade regulations

E Economic issues include economic growth, unemployment policies,

business cycle of the country, interest and inflation rates

Social issues include population growth, demographics,

S environmental, health and educational consciousness and others
such as age, sex, lifestyle changes, etc.

Technological issues include technological advancements, lifecycle

T of technology available, role of internet, government expenditure on
technology, etc.

L Legal issues include customs and trade regulations; and Licensing

regulations related to the industry

E Environmental issues include natural disasters and climate change,

environmental rules and regulations
 FACTOR ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
POLITICAL + --

ECONOMIC +++ -

SOCIO-CULTURAL ++ ---

TECHNOLOGICAL ++++ -

LEGAL + ---

ECOLOGICAL/ ENVIRONMENTAL ++ ----

PROBLEM TREE
The River Water Problem

The quality of the water in the ABC river in the Province of XYZ has been deteriorating in the last decade.
The ABC river has been well known as a tourist destination because of its good water quality and the high
volume of fishes in the area. It is popular with tourists who like to fish and/or swim. XYZ Province is a poor
province and relies significantly from its income from the river.

Recently, the Environment Bureau revealed that river water quality is deteriorating for many reasons. One
reason is there has been increasing volume in the garbage dumped in the river by residents. Another reason is
that factories situated along the river have continuously discharged their waste water directly into the river
despite an ordinance penalizing this practice. The current water treatment plant of the LGU is not functional.
On the other hand, the Fisheries Bureau showed that the quality and volume of fishes in the river has also
been declining. There were instances when fishes consumed by the residents have caused them to get sick.

Many of the residents living along the river who depend on the river for their livelihood have reported reduced
incomes because there were fewer fishes to catch. Others stated that there are now fewer tourists who come
and therefore, their livelihood has also declined.
PROBLEM TREE Effect 1.1 Effect 1.2
Effect

Effect 1 Effect 1

Core Development
Problem

Cause 1 Cause 2
Cause

Cause 1.1. Cause 1.2 Cause 2.1 Cause 2.2 Cause 2.3
STEP 1. IDENTIFY THE CORE DEVELOPMENT
PROBLEM
Effect

Quality of river water of ABC river

Core Development Problem
deteriorating

Cause
HOW TO IDENTIFY THE CORE DEVELOPMENT
PROBLEM?

 Conducting a stakeholder analysis

 Through trial and error
 By asking experts in the field
 By doing a comprehensive desk review
 A combination of any of the above

08/08/2022 | Slide 27
STEP 2. BRAINSTORM ON ALL THE DIRECT CAUSES OF
THE CORE DEVELOPMENT PROBLEM

Quality of River Water in

ABC River Deteriorating
Why?
Uncontrolled Many households &
dumping of trash factories discharge
Wastewater Causes
treatment plant is
into river by waste water directly
below standard
residents into river
STEP 2. ESTABLISH THE HIERARCHY OF CAUSE AND EFFECT
RELATIONSHIP
River Water Quality of
ABC River Deteriorating

Many households & factories Sub-standard

Uncontrolled dumping of
discharge waste water waste water plants
waste into river
Why? directly into river of LGU
Why?
Residents unaware of River polluters Inadequate legal
consequences of are not Insufficient incentives to
regulations to prevent
dumping wastes apprehended deter direct discharge of
direct discharge of
waste water into river
wastewater into river
Why? Why?
No broad-based Few control Why? Why?
information & officers for Insufficient knowledge of
education campaign to monitoring & Policy/Law makers on
Inadequate Poor
educate residents policing water policies
land use plan coordination
among local
Why? Why? regulatory
Limited agencies
No funds allocated for
personnel in
advocacy
agency Causes
STEP 4. IDENTIFY THE EFFECTS OF THE CORE DEVELOPMENT
PROBLEM So what?
Living conditions of river
community worsened

Frequent diseases among Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural

What effect/s? fish consumers reduced folks decreased
Effects
Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for
deteriorating folks declining tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

What effect/s? deteriorating

Uncontrolled dumping of Many households & factories discharge waste Sub-standard wastewater
waste into river water directly into river plant treatments

People unaware of Insufficient incentives to deter Inadequate legal regulations to prevent

Polluters are not
dangers of waste direct discharge of waste water direct discharge of wastewater into
apprehended
dumping into river river

No broad-based IEC to Few control officers for

educate residents monitoring Insufficient knowledge of
Inadequate land use Poor coordination
plan among local Policy/Law makers on water
No fund allocation for Limited agency
regulatory agencies policies Causes
advocacy personnel
 PROBLEM TREE
Living conditions of river
So what? community worsened

What effect/s?
Effects
Title cannot be issued
unless case were settle

Claims and Conflict

What effect/s?

Claimants during the Cadastral survey

wasn’t the present occupants during the
inspection

Inadequate land use Poor coordination Insufficient knowledge of

plan among local Policy/Law makers on water
No fund allocation for Limited agency
regulatory agencies policies Causes
advocacy personnel
STEP 5. REVIEW THE PROBLEM TREE
Living conditions of river
community worsened

Frequent diseases among Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural

fish consumers reduced folks decreased
Effects
Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for
deteriorating folks declining tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating

Uncontrolled dumping of Many households & factories discharge waste Sub-standard wastewater
waste into river water directly into river plant treatments

People unaware of Insufficient incentives to deter Inadequate legal regulations to prevent

Polluters are not
dangers of waste direct discharge of waste water direct discharge of wastewater into
apprehended
dumping into river river

No broad-based IEC to Few control officers for

educate residents monitoring Insufficient knowledge of
Inadequate land use Poor coordination
plan among local Policy/Law makers on water
No fund allocation for Limited agency
regulatory agencies policies Causes
advocacy personnel
OBJECTIVE TREE
OBJECTIVE TREE

• Provides a general and clear view of a desired future situation

by illustrating the hierarchy of objectives leading to the
A attainment of the desired outcome.

• Constructed by converting the negative situations identified in

the problem tree into solutions expressed as “positive
B achievements”.

• Positive achievements become the project objectives

C
STEP 1: REFORMULATE THE PROBLEMS INTO
OBJECTIVES
Effects
Ends

Problem Tree Objective Tree

Quality of river Volume of catch of
Attractiveness for
fish fisher folks
tourism decreased
deteriorating declining

Development
Core Objective
Development
Problem Quality of River
River Water
Water
Quality Improved
Deteriorating

Most households Wastewater

Uncontrolled and factories
dumping of treatment
discharge waste plants below
trash into river water directly into standard
river

Causes Means
THE PROBLEM TREE… NOW BECOMES AN OBJECTIVE TREE
Living conditions of river
community worsened
enhanced

Diseasesdiseases
Frequent among among
fish Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural
consumers eliminated
fish consumers increased
reduced folks decreased
folks improved

Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for

deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
SOLUTIONS TREE
 Living conditions of river
community worsened
enhanced
Alternative 1
Diseasesdiseases
Frequent among among
fish Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural
consumers eliminated
fish consumers increased
reduced folks decreased
folks improved

Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for

deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
 iv e 2 Living conditions of river

rnat community worsened

enhanced

Al t e
Diseasesdiseases
Frequent among among
fish Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural
consumers eliminated
fish consumers increased
reduced folks decreased
folks improved

Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for

deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
 Living conditions of river
Al
community worsened
enhanced
ter
na
Diseasesdiseases
Frequent
consumers
among among
fish
eliminated
fish consumers
Income of fisher folk
increased
reduced
Livelihood of rural
folks decreased
folks improved
ti ve
Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for
3
deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
 Living conditions of river
a t i ve 4
community worsened
enhanced
Al t er n
Diseasesdiseases
Frequent among among
fish Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural
consumers eliminated
fish consumers increased
reduced folks decreased
folks improved

Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for

deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
LAST NOTES ON USE OF PROBLEM TREE…

 Highly dependent on the type

and quality of people
participating in the analysis
 More suitable for logical thinkers
LAST NOTES ON USE OF PROBLEM TREE…

 There are other tools for analysis

such as Systems Thinking
 May not be appropriate for
designing projects
The Gorkha Earthquakes: The
Devastation in Nepal

WORKSHOP
DEVELOPING A PROGRAM/PROJECT LOGFRAME
 Decrease in quality of life of
children/youth

Increase in illiteracy Increase in children in

Increase in child marriages
among children/youth criminal activities

Increase in out-of-school Increase in school drop-

youth outs/repeaters

Decrease in educational Overcrowding of

facilities functioning schools

High number of schools

damaged/destroyed

Majority of schools are Schools located in

Many schools are Schools are not built to
old and made of mud earthquake
poorly constructed be ready for earthquakes
and mortar vulnerable areas

Inadequate funding for

Inadequate Weak
new education Weak enforcement Low awareness on
capacity of deployment of Absence of local
infrastructure of local building structural safety of
construction national building codes
code buildings
workers building code
Low priority placed by
government on Construction Low priority Lack of capacity
educational workers are not given by gov’t to formulate
infrastructure properly trained officials building codes

Many competing Lack of proper

development concerns skills training Limited number Lack of training Engineering curricula Lack of capacity Lack of awareness
of gov’t programs of enforcement for enforcement unresponsive to current building programs for building programs for
officers officers needs officials the people
 Improved
Decreased
quality
quality
of life
of life
of
children/youth
of children/youth

Decreased illiteracy Decreased incidence of Decreased children in

among children/youth child marriages criminal activities

Decreased out-of-school Decreased school drop-

youth outs/repeaters

Increased educational School capacity well

facilities managed

Increased number of earthquake–

resilient schools

Majority of schools are Schools relocated

Schools are properly Schools
Schools not
are designed
designed for
for
new or “built back from earthquake
built earthquake readiness
better” vulnerable areas

Sufficient funding for

Strong
new education 100% deployment of High awareness on
Improved capacity of enforcement of Formulation of local
infrastructure national building structural safety of
construction workers local building building codes
code buildings
codes
Top priority placed by
government on Construction workers Increased capacity to
educational High priority given
are well trained formulate building
infrastructure by gov’t officials
codes

Skills training
Competing development programs available for Training for Capacity building
Sufficient number of Engineering curricula
concerns of gov’t are wrokers enforcement Increased awareness
enforcement officers unresponsive to current programs for
programmed officers provided of people on safety
needs officials available
 Improved
Decreased
quality
quality
of life
of life
of
Alternative 1: children/youth
of children/youth

Educational Reform
Decreased illiteracy Decreased incidence of Decreased children in
Project among children/youth child marriages criminal activities

Decreased out-of-school Decreased school drop-

youth outs/repeaters

Increased educational School capacity well

facilities managed

Increased number of earthquake–

resilient schools

Majority of schools are Schools relocated

Schools are properly Schools
Schools not
are designed
designed for
for
new or “built back from earthquake
built earthquake readiness
better” vulnerable areas

Sufficient funding for

Strong
new education 100% deployment of High awareness on
Improved capacity of enforcement of Formulation of local
infrastructure national building structural safety of
construction workers local building building codes
code buildings
codes
Top priority placed by
government on Construction workers Increased capacity to
educational High priority given
are well trained formulate building
infrastructure by gov’t officials
codes

Skills training
Competing development programs available for Training for Capacity building
Sufficient number of Engineering curricula
concerns of gov’t are wrokers enforcement Increased awareness
enforcement officers unresponsive to current programs for
programmed officers provided of people on safety
needs officials available
 Improved
Decreased
quality
quality
of life
of life
of
Alternative 2: children/youth
of children/youth

Construction of
Decreased illiteracy Decreased incidence of Decreased children in
School Buildings among children/youth child marriages criminal activities
Project
Decreased out-of-school Decreased school drop-
youth outs/repeaters

Increased educational School capacity well

facilities managed

Increased number of earthquake–

resilient schools

Majority of schools are Schools relocated

Schools are properly Schools
Schools not
are designed
designed for
for
new or “built back from earthquake
built earthquake readiness
better” vulnerable areas

Sufficient funding for

Strong
new education 100% deployment of High awareness on
Improved capacity of enforcement of Formulation of local
infrastructure national building structural safety of
construction workers local building building codes
code buildings
codes
Top priority placed by
government on Construction workers Increased capacity to
educational High priority given
are well trained formulate building
infrastructure by gov’t officials
codes

Skills training
Competing development programs available for Training for Capacity building
Sufficient number of Engineering curricula
concerns of gov’t are wrokers enforcement Increased awareness
enforcement officers unresponsive to current programs for
programmed officers provided of people on safety
needs officials available
 Improved
Decreased
quality
quality
of life
of life
of
Alternative 3: children/youth
of children/youth

Strengthening
Decreased illiteracy Decreased incidence of Decreased children in
Policies on among children/youth child marriages criminal activities
Educational
Decreased out-of-school
Facilities youth
Decreased school drop-
outs/repeaters

Increased educational School capacity well

facilities managed

Increased number of earthquake–

resilient schools

Majority of schools are Schools relocated

Schools are properly Schools
Schools not
are designed
designed for
for
new or “built back from earthquake
built earthquake readiness
better” vulnerable areas

Sufficient funding for

Strong
new education 100% deployment of High awareness on
Improved capacity of enforcement of Formulation of local
infrastructure national building structural safety of
construction workers local building building codes
code buildings
codes
Top priority placed by
government on Construction workers Increased capacity to
educational High priority given
are well trained formulate building
infrastructure by gov’t officials
codes

Skills training
Competing development programs available for Training for Capacity building
Sufficient number of Engineering curricula
concerns of gov’t are wrokers enforcement Increased awareness
enforcement officers unresponsive to current programs for
programmed officers provided of people on safety
needs officials available
DECISION ANALYSIS
CRITERIA FOR INVESTMENT DECISIONS

• PAYBACK METHOD
• COST-BENEFIT/BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS
• NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV)
• INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR)
• COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS (LEAST-COST ANALYSIS)
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS (BENEFIT-COST
ANALYSIS)
COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS
 DEVELOPMENT OF
PROGRAM/PROJECT LOGFRAME
 Objectively
Means of Assumptions and
Design Summary Verifiable
Verification Risks
Indicators
Impact/Goal

Outcome/ Purpose

Output

Activities

Inputs
 Objectively
Means of Assumptions and
Design Summary Verifiable
Verification Risks
Indicators
Impact/Goal

Outcome/ Purpose

Output

Process

Vertical Logic Inputs

 Performance
Design Means of Assumptions
Targets and
Summary Verification and Risks
Indicators
Impact
Adequate and reliable supply to meet demands for
electricity in the country

Outcome: Implementation of the Electricity Act of 2003

National transmission grid strengthened and or power reform act
expanded

Outputs: Counterpart funds for operations &

TN I Grid strengthened maintenance component are available
TN II Grid strengthened

No increase in steel and aluminum prices

Activities:
1. Procure supply and construction contracts
for project packages
2. Conduct initial environmental examination
(IEE)
3. Prepare resettlement plan with stakeholders Inputs:
concerned Bank Loan - $400M
4. Prepare indigenous people development
Power Co. - $148M
plan with stakeholders concerned
CONNECTING SOLUTIONS TREE TO
PROGRAM/PROJECT LOGFRAME
 Living conditions of river
community worsened
enhanced
Alternative 1
Diseasesdiseases
Frequent among among
fish Income of fisher folk Livelihood of rural
consumers eliminated
fish consumers increased
reduced folks decreased
folks improved

Quality of river fish Volume of catch of fisher Attractiveness for

deteriorating
improved folks
folks increased
declining sustained
tourism decreased

River Water Quality of ABC river

deteriorating
improved

Uncontrolled dumping of Direct

Many discharge &
households of waste water
factories into river
discharge by
waste Sub-standard
Wastewater wastewater
plant treatments
waste waste into eliminated
into river river households & factories eliminated
water directly into river plant
meet treatments
quality standards

People unaware of Effective incentives

High awareness against
dangers of waste
dumping wastes in river
dumping
Insufficient incentivestotodeter
deter Inadequate legal regulations to
Polluters areare
Polluters effectively
not Sufficient legal regulations vs. HR capacity on waste
direct discharge of waste water prevent direct discharge of
apprehended discharge of wastewater to river water treatment
into river wastewater into river increased

No broad-based
Sustained IEC onIEC to
river Few control
Effective officers
monitoring for
of river
educate residents
management monitoring
pollution
High knowledge
Insufficient of of
knowledge
Operational
Inadequate land
land use Poor coordination
Efficient coordination Water connections of
use plan
plan amongamong local
local regulatory Policy/Law makers on water households and factory to
No fundfunds
Sufficient allocation
allocatedfor
for Limited agency agencies policies
Sufficient monitoring officers regulatory agencies sewer networks improved
advocacy
advocacy personnel
 Logical Framework

Performance Sources of Assumptions

Design Summary
Indicators Verification and Risks

Impact:
Living conditions of
community enhanced

Outcome:
River water quality
improved

Outputs

Activities/Inputs
 Alternatives Analysis Logical Framework
Ends

Performance Sources of Assumptions and

Design Summary
Indicators Verification Risks

Impact:

1. Living conditions of
community
improved
2. Income of
community
increased
3. Tourism industry
enhanced

Outcome:
River water quality
improved

Outputs

Activities/Inputs

Means
 Alternatives Analysis Logical Framework
Ends Design Performance Sources of Assumptions
Summary Indicators Verification and Risks

Impact:
Living conditions of
local people improved
pact
Outcome:
River water quality
improved

Outputs:

1. Uncontrolled
dumping of waste in
river eliminated
2. Direct discharge of
waste water by
households &
factories eliminated

Activities/Inputs

Means
 Alternatives Analysis Logical Framework
Ends Design Performance Sources of Assumptions
Summary Indicators Verification and Risks

Impact:
Living conditions of
local people improved
pact
Outcome:
River water quality
improved

Outputs:

1. Uncontrolled
dumping of waste in
river eliminated
2. Direct discharge of
waste water by
households &
factories eliminated

Activities/Inputs

Means
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