Non-Traditional Security Threats in Pakistan

Lecture# 14
Introduction:

Traditional Security threats: Since the emergence of the Nation State system in the World from 1648, territorial integrity and
political sovereignty remained the most important element on which security policies of the different countries had been shaped.
Therefore, state sovereignty and territorial integrity must be protected from forces that would seek to destroy or capture the state for
their own purposes. Hence, to secure the state, those in power have the opportunity to govern legitimately and effectively. E.g. by
maintaining an effective security apparatus in the form of armed forces and weaponry etc.

Non-Traditional Security Threats: Although, territorial integrity of a country matters a lot in the recent conceptions about the
security of a country but the concept of human security has occupied an important place in the security policies of the most of the
countries now a days. “Non-traditional security issues are challenges to the survival and well-being of peoples and states that arise
primarily out of non-military sources, such as climate change , resource scarcity, infectious diseases, natural disasters, irregular
migration, food shortages, people smuggling, drug trafficking and transnational crime. These dangers are often transnational in
scope, defying unilateral remedies and requiring comprehensive political, economic, and social responses, as well as humanitarian
use of military force”(Jennifer, 2005).
In Context of Pakistan:

National Security Division(NSD) of Pakistan launched first ever drafted National Security policy of Pakistan(NSP) in
January 2022. The unique and appreciable element in this policy is the centrality of the human security and economic
development of the Country to strength the overall defense structure. E.g. in the 1 st page of NSP document, it is stated like this;
“A country is as secure as its most vulnerable citizen. The safety, security, dignity, and prosperity of citizens in all their
manifestations will remain the ultimate purpose of Pakistan’s national security”.

So, therefore, a secure and economically resilient Pakistan, empowered by diversity of culture, and demographic dividends
while ensuring fundamental rights and social justice without discrimination on the basis of caste, creed, or belief. Promoting
good governance through strengthening of institutions, transparency, accountability, and openness as articles of faith is the
urgent need of the time. As Dr Mehboobul Haq had, several decades ago, argued about the centrality of human development.
He had envisioned it as a process of expanding opportunities, improving well-being and livelihoods in order to enrich people’s
lives.
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The five major areas(threats) mentioned in the NSP are following:

I. Population and migration.

II. Health, food and gender security.

III. Climate and water, as well as the management of Indus basin and its tributaries, early warning systems for floods and
drought.

IV. Groundwater flows.

V. Polluted air and water bodies.

Hydro-Politics:

Introduction: Water’s role in shaping politics goes back centuries. In the ancient world, large bodies of water formed natural
boundaries for people and nations. Occupation/controlling of the water resources, rivers, and the conflicts over the ownership
rights on the fresh water resources are common from the ancient times. Although, today’s geopolitical landscape looks very
different from the ancient times due to technological innovations and a number of challenges in the forms of climate change
and rising populations but access to water as a basic human need remains paramount in this era. Experts agree that, if there
was no access to water, there would be no world peace because without water life is not possible. In many areas of the world,
bodies of water run through several countries or brush up against many countries' borders. That’s why, riparian water rights
occupies the central position in the discussions/decisions and politics related water. In the case of a river, upstream countries
where the river originates enjoy inherent power and leverage over the downstream countries in the utilization of water.

As Professor Aaron Wolf highlighted three main issues related to hydro-politics.

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water scarcity: water scarcity is the 1st issue in the hydro-politics. E.g. lack of safe, reliable water kills as many people
worldwide as malaria and HIV/Aids. Like 3.4 million people die each year from scarce and contaminated water sources. 2.1
billion people still have not access to clean water. Millions of women and children spend 3-6 hours each day collecting water
from distant and polluted sources.

Political implications: The second issue is the political implications of that scarcity. For example, in the politically
unstable and economically poor countries, drought drove more people to cities, saw rising food prices, and increasing in the
intensity of tensions in the country that already existed. They ended up with “climate refugees”, who travel to other countries
to seek places that have better water availability, which may in turn stoke the flames of political tension.

Trans-boundary flow of water: It is the third main issue and experts says that. It is the trans-boundary flow of water
which effects the intra-state relations. E.g. India and Pakistan are contesting from their inception over the water rights.
Regional concerns in the Context of Pakistan:

Indus Water System: The River Sindhu or Mehran or Indus is the great trans-Himalayan river of South Asia. It is one of the
longest rivers in the world, with a length of some 3,200 km. Its total drainage area is about 1,165,000 square km. The river’s annual flow is
about 58 cubic miles and it is twice to the follow of the Nile River. Indus Water System plays a vital role in the economy of Pakistan in the
forms as main source of irrigation, electricity generation, sustaining wildlife and forestry, and contributes to the fishing sector of Pakistan.
Pakistan has constructed two major dams(Mangla and Tarbela) and six barrages on the IWS to support her agriculture and energy sectors.

The Indus receives its most-notable tributaries from the eastern Punjab Plain. These are five rivers namely the Jhelum,
Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. While Indus receives water from its Western tributaries of Kabul River, Swat River, and Gilgit River.

The principal rivers of the Indus River system are snow-fed. Their flow varies greatly at different times of the year. E.g.
the discharge is at a minimum during the winter months (December to February), there is a rise of water in spring and early summer (March
to June), and floods occur in the rainy season (July to September).
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Background:

Aftermath of the partition of the sub-continent between the two independent states of Pakistan and India, the issue of water
distribution in the Indus basin was came into existence and gained immediate urgency for the Pakistani government and the people at
large. As a result of partition, the head-works of two important canal systems were left in Indian territory and the command areas in
Pakistani territory. In the absence of any arrangement for the sharing of water in those canal commands, the two countries concluded a
“Standstill Agreement” which provided for the maintenance of existing flows until March 31, 1948, to allow time to reach a longer-term
settlement.

However, the agreement lapsed without settlement, and the very next day,1st April 1948 the provincial government of Indian
Punjab suspended supplies to Pakistan. This suspension of water was perceived by the State of Pakistan as an evidence of Indian desire to
pressurize and weakening of the newly born State. The supplies were restored eighteen days later, and soon after the two countries
concluded what came to be known as the Inter-Dominion Agreement, which called for continued negotiations for a final settlement of the
water issue.
Indus Water Treaty(1960):

The active mediation and financial support of the World Bank and the Western powers led by the United States, India

and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty(IWT) on 19th September 1960 in Karachi. IWT have 12 Articles and 8 annexures related

towards different issues discussed under this Treaty by the Governments of Pakistan and India. The main features of treaty are following.

IWT allocated the entire flow of the three eastern tributaries of the Indus River; Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas to India and the

three western tributaries; Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab to Pakistan. under obligation to let flow and shall not permit any interference with

these waters except for irrigating existing areas and to develop a further 701,000 acres of irrigation from these rivers subject to certain

specific conditions.

The ten-year transition period was the time allowed to Pakistan to construct replacement works for water that was being

received earlier from the Eastern Rivers. India agreed to make a fixed contribution of 62 million towards the cost of the replacement

works in 10 equal annual installments, starting from 1960, payable on the first of November of each year.
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The IWT was a trilateral treaty between, India, Pakistan, and the World Bank. The World Bank rewarded both
Pakistan and India with massive aid to build storage and alternate facilities to provide remedy of those water supplies that were
allocated to the other country. It was concluded in an atmosphere of considerable mutual suspicion, particularly in the context
of Pakistan’s concerns about the India as a upper riparian country and her ability to deprive Pakistan from the water.

Under Article VI, specific provisions were made for regular exchange of river and canal data between the two
countries, and Article VII referred to future cooperation. Under Article VIII, both countries under-took to establish a permanent
post of Commissioner of Indus Waters, and these two Commissioners would constitute a Permanent Indus Commission.

The Commission would be responsible for establish and promote cooperative arrangements for the Treaty
implementation, promote cooperation between the Parties in the development of the waters of the Indus system, examine and
resolve by agreement any question that may arise between the Parties concerning interpretation or implementation of the
Treaty, and submit an annual report before the first of June every year to the two Governments.
Loopholes in the IWT:

Bilateral talks about the violations of the treaty regarding to the constructions of dam(Kishanganga and Baglihar) by India have fallen into
difficulty into most of the time due to the ongoing Kashmir conflict. Pakistan also turned to its ally China through the development of CPEC with
China seeking greater economic influence in the region through the enactment of economic projects with Pakistan, created implications for the
IWT.

Pakistan has been unable to prevent projects which could threaten its water, energy and internal security. Further, the internationalization of
decisions over dams may have detrimental consequences to principles of local participation. Current mediation by the World Bank under the IWT
has been state-centric rather than pertaining to the inclusion of affected local communities in the decision-making process.

Observers from both sides have criticized the treaty as outdated and for being an obstruction to effective exploitation of the Indus River’s
resources, as it limits possibilities for storage. Furthermore, the IWT does not promote collaborative development of the Indus Basin between the
two states, and considers neither the effect of climate change on overall water availability nor regional distribution beyond the national level. It has
also been pointed out that there are no restrictions on how many dams India can build in the Indus Basin, nor does it provide any quantitative
measure for water distribution, thus creating a loophole allowing for potential over-exploitation by India.
Domestic Concerns:

The total inflow of water in the Indus River System was 117 MAF before the treaty. Now, Pakistan receives only 80
MAF, which is allocated to Pakistan’s provinces under the Water Allocation Strategy. Pakistan can only store 10 per cent of the
average annual flow of its rivers, which is far below the world average storage capacity of 40 per cent. Pakistan had been
water-abundant in the past (almost 6000 cubic meters per capita in 1960), but now has become a water-stressed country with
1017 cubic meter per capita. The main sectors which consumes fresh water are agriculture(69 %), industry(23 %), and
domestic usage(8%).

Pakistan distributed her water resources between the provinces by signing the Water Apportionment Accord in 1991
related to the provincial shares. The two major water conflicts that exist within Pakistan over the division of water and sharing
of water shortages are between Punjab and Sindh, and between Sindh and Baluchistan. Sindh as a lower riparian is in discord
with Punjab by arguing that its proper water share is being theft in the Punjab. While Baluchistan as a lower riparian of Sindh
clashes with it over availability of water.
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It is evident that despite the country’s overall water situation, the upper riparian is at an advantage to take larger share of water in
time of shortage and does not acknowledge the rights of the lower riparian in sharing water shortage equitably. The other issue is related
towards the construction of the Kalabagh Dam project which have been rejected by the provinces of the Sindh and KPK. Ethnic
composition and regional politics always increased the intensity of water based conflicts in the Country. E.g. the balance river supplies
including flood supplies and future storages are allocated as: 37% for Punjab, 37% for Sindh, 14% for K.PK and 12% for Baluchistan.

Indus River System Authority (IRSA) was established in 1993 through an Act of the Parliament. The authority was established for
regulating and monitoring the distribution of water sources of the IRS amongst the provinces in accordance with the provision of the
Water Accord.

Beyond the IRSA, Council of Common Interest(CCI) has also mandate over the water disputes between the provinces along with
the power sharing and resources distribution disputes between the federation and the provinces. National Water Policy 2018 was
unanimously approved by the CCI to overcome the water shortage through effective management and increasing storage capacity.
Climate change:

Definition:

It is a broad range of global phenomena created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-trapping gases to Earth’s
atmosphere. These phenomena include the increased temperature trends described by global warming, but also encompass changes such as
sea-level rise, ice mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic and mountain glaciers worldwide, shifts in flower/plant blooming, and extreme
weather events. These shifts may be natural, but since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change.

Climate change as a Global issue have severe impacts on all over the world but it impacts with huge intensity to the developing
countries like Pakistan and created high security risks in the forms of huge damages to the human lives, living standards, and economic
performance of the Country. There are several causes of the climate change and we will focus here only the dominant/major causes of the
climate change here.

Global warming: Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth’s climate system observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850
and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere.
The term is frequently used interchangeably with the term climate change, but both are different phenomena's.
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Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar
radiation that have bounced off the earth’s surface. Normally this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can
last for years to centuries in the atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet to get hotter. Scientists advises to the different
stakeholders that to limit the Earth's temperature up to 1.5C is crucial to encounter with the impacts of the Global warming.
Greenhouse gases:

The Earth’s surface absorbs half of the energy while atmosphere absorbs 23% of the energy from the sunlight and natural
processes ensures that the amount of incoming and outgoing energy is equal, keeping the planet’s temperature stable. However,
human activity is resulting in the increased emission of so-called greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC, N2O) which, unlike other
atmospheric gases such as oxygen and nitrogen, becomes trapped in the atmosphere, unable to escape the planet. This energy
returns to the surface, where it is reabsorbed and temperature of the Earth rises.
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Rising emissions: It means the emission of the different types gases, and pollutants in the atmosphere and on the land and these
emissions are rising year by year and contributes towards climate change. Generally Fluorinated gases, Fertilizers containing nitrogen,
Increasing livestock farming, Waste, Burning coal, Oil and Gas are the main causes of these emissions.

Consumerism: this means consumption of different goods and items to met with the requirements daily life. E.g. like the
consumption of goods such as clothing, electronics, and plastics. A large chunk of global greenhouse gas emissions are linked to
private households. So, therefore, the lifestyles of the different people have a profound impact on this planet. That’s why, the
wealthiest bear the greatest responsibility. E.g. the richest 1% of the global population is behind the emissions of greenhouse gas
more than the poorest 50% of the population.

Deforestation: Each year approximately 12 million hectares of forest are destroyed. Since forests absorb CO2, destroying them meant
the reduction in nature’s ability to keep emissions out of the atmosphere. Deforestation, together with agriculture and other land use
changes, is responsible for roughly a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions and main cause of climate change in the World.
Impacts of Climate Change on Pakistan:

Climate change is a Global issue and Pakistan is not much responsible for the Global warming and the powerful Countries like USA and China are
much responsible for it. Climate change impacts the whole world because the space of the World is common for all the nations. Unfortunately,
Pakistan as a developing country with an unstable economy under malfunctioning governance system is being badly impacted by the climate
change. Climate change became a security threat to the State of Pakistan because of the following impacts over the economy, geography, and the
people of Pakistan.

Hotter Temperatures: It is noted that the mean annual temperature has been increasing in most parts of Pakistan.

Agricultural Productivity: Crops grown in both irrigated areas, arid areas and farming during the flood seasons are highly sensitive to the
amount of water available and temperature variability. It is estimated that the rise in temperature will decrease the agricultural productivity around
8% to 10% by 2040. on the other hand livestock and forestry as a main pillars of agricultural productivity are also impacted by the climate change.

Rising Ocean levels: Sea level rise for Pakistan is estimated at 1.1 mm per year from 1856–2000 along the Karachi coast. It destroys the coastal
life. The change in sea level was due to two major processes of thermal expansion of ocean from global warming and glacier mass loss.
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More Health Risks: Pakistan with a malfunctioning heath sectors is badly effected due to the climate change. Heat waves, long
summers, short winters, and droughts are making highly risky heath conditions for the people of Pakistan. E.g. in 2015 only in Karachi
2000 people were died due to a heat wave at that time in the summer season.

Water Crisis: The water sector is one of the most sensitive sectors to the impacts of climate change. Pakistan has the world’s largest
canal based irrigation system under the Indus River and it is largely dependent on precipitation, glaciers and snow melt, and ground
water abstraction. Analyses of river flows from 1947 to 2003 show a decreasing trend in annual river flows follows in Pakistan. Snows,
and Glaciers are melting, and under ground water becoming decreasing due to the climate change. Due to reduction in the water
availability energy and agriculture sectors of the Country are also effected.

Shortage of food, Poverty and displacement: low agricultural productivity, droughts, floods, landslides, and shortage of water
increases the shortage of food, poverty and the displacement of people from one area towards another area in search of food and shelter.

Loss of Species: due to the unprecedented changings in the climatic conditions made unadoptable conditions for the different species.
How to minimize Climate Change Impacts:

Although, climate change is a Global issue and Pakistan can not individually combat/tackle this issue. So, this issue requires a collective effort at International levels by

the state governments, intergovernmental organizations, NGOS, trade unions, IT experts, civil society and the general public. In this regard, UNO’s Climate Action

Program and Paris Agreement and Conference on climate change are international efforts to minimize the causes of the climate change and to overcome the impacts of

climate change in the World. Pakistan as a responsible Country has to work on the some of causes and impacts of the climate change at national level as well.

I. Population Control.
II. City planning and monitoring of rural to urban migration.
III. Up gradation of the Agricultural sector to minimize the ongoing water crisis and to increase productivity.
IV. To increase the existing storage capacity of water.
V. Effective waste management policies and institutions should be developed to control the pollution.
VI. Programs should be launched to increase the forest covers and green belts. e.g. trillion tree program of the previous Government was a good
initiative.
VII. Renewable and environment friendly energy sources should be utilize to meet with the energy needs of the Country. E.g. Hydro, Wind, and
Biomass energy generation should be adopted instead of oil, coal, and gas based energy production systems.
Rising Population in Pakistan:

Introduction: Rising population in the world is a natural process and after the developments in the fields of healthcare, technology,
agriculture and economy in the past century, increased the intensity of the rising of human population in the World. Pakistan as a
developing country has high ratio of Population growth and her Population increased 4 times in the past 7 decades. Population
growth with a high ratio has advantages and disadvantages for any of the country in the World. e.g. China manage her huge population
rationally and systematically and her population is contributed towards her economic development on the other hand unfortunately
Pakistan could not be able to manage her population and now her huge population became a non-traditional security threat to Pakistan.
As per last census(2017) of Pakistan is now the fifth most populous nation in the world. With a high growth rate of 2.4 % per annum,
4.5 to 5 million children are added to the existing numbers every year. An economic growth rate of at least 6% to 7% is needed for
Pakistan to absorb the millions of young adults who enter the job market every year. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s economic position is
weak and can not be able to achieve the required growth rate. 1st Family planning polices adopted during the 3 rd five year
developmental plan in1965-1970 in the country and the formulation of the polices related family planning was more activated in the
country from 2002 to onward. All these family planning polices have minimum impact on the issue of over population in Pakistan.
Main Causes of over population:

I. Ineffective policies of the different governments related towards population control in the Country.

II. Illiteracy.

III. Weak heath infrastructure.

IV. Low awareness about the child and mother heath issues in the society.

V. Preference of son over daughters.

VI. Poverty.

VII. Conservative ideas, customs, and traditions.

VIII. Lack of awareness about the implications of the overpopulation.

IX. Declining in the mortality rates.

X. Early marriages.
Impacts of over population:

Pakistan is facing a number of traditional and non-traditional threats from her internal and external sides since her inception. As per NSP 2022, if the
current population growth rate is not managed rationally then it became a security challenge for Pakistan. There are following implications of over
population for Pakistan.

I. Unemployment.

II. Increase in the criminal activities.

III. Issues of law and order.

IV. Reduction in the agricultural land and productivity.

V. Waste management issues.

VI. Water shortage.

VII. Cities become overloaded.

VIII. More financial resources are required.

Cyber Attacks:

Definition: A cyber attack is an assault launched by cybercriminals using one or more computers against a single or multiple computers or

networks. A cyber attack can disable computers, steal data, or use a breached computer as a launch point for other attacks.

Explanation: Cybercriminals use a variety of methods to launch a cyber attack, including malware, phishing, ransom ware, denial of service,

among other method Cyber attacks are the issue from the pervious few decades and the global cyber threat continues to evolve at a rapid pace,

with a rising number of data breaches each year. According to report by one of cyber security organization that 7.9 billion records have been

exposed by data breaches in the first nine months of 2019 alone. This figure is more than double (112%) the number of records exposed in the

same period in 2018.

The threats can be categorized into three categories:

Cybercrime: includes single actors or groups targeting systems for financial gain or to cause disruption.

Cyber-attack: often involves politically motivated information gathering on sensitive networks of the security.

Cyber terrorism: it is intended to undermine electronic systems to cause panic or fear.

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Cyber attackers(hackers) can attack/hack the date related towards medical services, military, nuclear, individual, and corporate
sectors. With increasing use of technology and online activities, the number of cybercrimes around the globe and in Pakistan is
on the rise. It became important for the State of Pakistan to formulate policies and to develop institutions to deal with this issue
because government, military, corporate, financial, and medical organizations collect, process, and store unprecedented
amounts of data on computers and other devices are being threaten by the cyber attackers. Furthermore, a significant portion
of that data can be sensitive information, whether that be intellectual property, financial data, personal information, or other
types of data for which unauthorized access or exposure could have negative consequences. Organizations transmit sensitive
data across networks and to other devices in the course of doing business and this data is also on the top priority of the
hackers.
Cyber Security:

Definition: Cyber security refers to the body of technologies, processes, and practices designed to protect networks, devices, programs, and

data from attack, damage, or unauthorized access. Cyber security may also be referred to as information technology security It involves

implementing various defenses within all software and services used within an organization against a wide range of threats. It requires

designing secure application architectures, writing secure code, implementing strong data input validation, threat modeling, etc. to minimize the

likelihood of any unauthorized access or modification of application resources.

Explanation: the art of war is an ever-changing phenomenon as to how, when and where to engage the enemy. It relatively a newer threat not

only for states but also for other stakeholders. Billions of dollars are illegally transferred or stolen, privacies exposed, state secrets acquired and

critical public infrastructure hacked. As the world becomes more and more connected via internet or digitized through information technology,

the cyber security threats are increasing day by day. Pakistan as a nuclear state with an important geopolitical position is increasingly exposed

to such threats in the cyber realm. So are the business sector and the private work. Pakistan has a large internet users’ base, an increasing

digitized security apparatus as well as banking system, which depend on internet connectivity.
Cyber warfare:

In the modern era, war has been revolutionized due to rapid advancements in technology. As a result, cyber security along with its advantages
and disadvantages is contributing increasingly to modern warfare. Pakistan, however, is still in the developmental phase of cyber security.
Although Pakistan has passed its first law related to cyber-crimes, in the form of the 2016 Prevention of Electronic Crime Act, the overall
legislation related to cyber security is still not fully drafted and not as strong to deal with the dynamic and broad-ranging nature of threats that
emanate from the realms of cyber security.

In this era of innovation and connectivity even major powers such as the U.S, Russia, China, Israel and the United Kingdom remain vulnerable
to an evolving threat of cyber threats. Across the world, states are now increasingly dependent on cyber technology which has greatly increased
their chances of vulnerability. The most known example is 2015 Stuxnet virus, whereby a devastating cyber-attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Pakistan’s cyber space is insecure for many reasons because Pakistan is dependent on others for technology. According to leading global cyber
security firms such as Symantec, Pakistan is among the ten most targeted countries in the world. Main targets include Pakistan’s nuclear and
other critical installations, with publicly revealed assaults on the media houses, as well as the communication networks, of key government
departments including, transportation and basic utilities etc.