CE3706 Environmental Engineering

By

Prof Kakoli Karar Paul

Associate Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
National Institute of Technology
Rourkela 769008
Need to study Environmental Engineering
Water Quantity Estimation

The quantity of water required for municipal uses for

which the water supply scheme has to be designed
requires following data.

Water consumption rate 

(Per Capita Demand in litres per day per head)

Population to be served
     Quantity= Per capita demand x Population
Calculation of future event as a result of

study and analysis of available records or

data of population is population forecasting

 Methods Of Population Forecasting

Following are the commonly used methods for

forecasting:
1) Arithmetic increase method
2) Geometric increase method
3) Incremental increase method
4) Simple graphical method
5) he logistic curve method
 Arithmetic increase method
Average rate of increase in population is assumed to
be constant from decade to decade in this method.

Pņ = P+nd
Where,
Pņ = future population after n decades
P = present population
n = number of decades
d = average increase per decade
Ans
For calculating the population of 2011,
No. of decades (n) = 2011−2001 ;
10 =1
P₀ = 72.32
Average increase in decade(d) = 40.54 ÷3 = 13.5133
Population at the end of 2011 = Pn
Pn = P₀+n*d
Pņ = 72.32 + 1 × 13.5133 =8583330
Q) Calculate population for the year 1990 & 2000 by
Arithmetic Increase Method

Year Population
1930 25,000
1940 28,000
1950 34,000
1960 42,000
1970 47,000
Year Population Increase in
population
1930 25,000 ---
1940 28,000 3,000
1950 34,000 6,000
1960 42,000 8,000
1970 47,000 5,000
Total Increase 22,000
Avg Increase 5,500
P1990 = 58,000

P2000 = 63,500
Q) Calculate population for the year 2010 & 2020 by
Arithmetic Increase Method
Year Population
1940 25,000
1950 28,000
1960 34,000
1970 42,000
1980 47,000
1990 51,500
2000 56,000
 Geometric increase method
Average percentage increase in population is assumed to
be constant from decade to decade in this method.

Where,
Pn= future population after n decades
P= present population
n= number of decades
r= average percentage increase per decade
Average percentage increase (r) = 31.536%
No. of decades (n) = 2011−2001, 10 =1
P₀ = 72.32
Population at the end of 2011 (Pņ) = 9512680