Probability, Normal Distribution and

Empirical rule
By Dr. Yasin Yasin
Objectives

• Define probability
• Evaluate independence
• Compare and contrast different distributions
• Binomial distribution
• Normal distribution
• Standardized normal distribution
• Define estimation and identify estimation
techniques
• Define and construct confidence intervals for
the
• mean
• Relative risk
• Odds ratio
 • Probability: The likelihood of the occurrence of a
specific event.
• Parameter: Summary measures computed on a
population.
• Statistics: Summary measures computed on a
sample.
Definitions • Independent events: Events are independent if the
probability of one occurring is not affected by the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
• Independent variables: Risk factors/exposures in the
analysis that are hypothesized to be associated with
the dependent variable (outcome variable).
 • Probability is the study of randomness.

• Probability theory serves as the basis for almost all statistical

inference
Statistical inference: Generalizations or inferences about unknown
population parameters using sample statistics.

Probability Population  Select a sample  Measure variables under study on

sample  Summarize sample variables  Make inferences from
sample to population.

• Power of biostatistics: To make inferences to a large amount of people

using data from a smaller group.
 • Probability is the likelihood that outcome
will occur.

• Probability ranges between 0 and 1 (0 ≤

Probability ≤ 1).
What is
Probability? • The higher the probability of an event, the
more likely it is that the event will occur.
 Flip a coin, what is the probability of getting a head (H)
P(H) P (H)= = 50%

What is the probability of getting a head (H) OR tail (T)

P(H OR tail) = P(H) + P(T) = = = 1= 100%
Probability -
Example Roll a die, what is the probability of getting (3)?
P(3) = =17%

What is the probability of getting 1or 2or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6?

= P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) = =1 = 100%
Probability - Example
P(A)

P (selecting a specific child) = 1/5290 = 0.0002

P (selecting a boy) = 2560/5290 = 0.484

P(selecting child at least 8 years of age)

= (846 + 881 + 918)/5290
= 2645/5290 = 0.500
Source: Sullivan, L. M. (2017). Essentials of biostatistics in public health. Jones & Bartlett Learning.
Exercise
•What is the probability of
selecting a specific student from
the AHHG 4110 group?

•What is the probability of

selecting a student who
received a grade of A?

•What is the probability of

selecting a student who
received a grade of A AND being
a female?
Exercise
P(A)

P(specific student) = 0.01

P(Agrade) = = 0.10
Conditional vs. Unconditional Probability
• Previous examples were unconditional probabilities.
• Unconditional probabilities: Entire population is eligible to be selected.

• If we are interested in a specific subset of the population, we would use conditional

probability.
Terms and definitions
Let’s call flipping a coin as experiment or trial / Rolling a die is an experiment or trial

• Independent trials: the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of other trials.

• Independent events: the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of
occurrence of another events.

• Mutually exclusive events: only one of the two possibilities may occur for given trial. I.e.
The probability that both occur on a given trial is 0.
Conditional
Probability
• Used when two trials or events are not independent.

• So, we condition the probability of one event

occurrence on the other event’s occurrence.

• I.e., if two events (say A and B) DEPEND on each

other, we can use the knowledge of one’s occurrence
to know the probability of the other’s occurrence.

• The notation P(A | B) means the probability event A

occurs, given that event B has occurred.
Conditional Probability Example
52 play cards, half of them are red (hearts and diamonds)
and the other half are black (clubs and spades).

Let B = draw a red card, and A draw a diamond card, what

is the probability of drawing A given that B has occurred?

P (A | B) =

What is the probability of drawing B given that A has

occurred?
P (B | A) = ?????????
Conditional Probability Made Easy

•Conditional probability is the probability of outcome in a specific subpopulation

Example:
P(Select 9-year-old from girls)
= P(Select 9-year-old | girl)
Subpopulation
= 461/2730 = 0.169
girls

P(Select boy | 6 years of age)

Subpopulation
= 379/892=0.425
6 years old Source: Sullivan, L. M. (2017). Essentials of biostatistics in public health. Jones & Bartlett Learning.
 Sensitivity and Specificity: Measures to evaluate the screening tests.
Definitions:
Sensitivity: the probability a person tests positive given that s/he
actually has the disease
P (test positive|disease).
Applications
of
Specificity: the probability that a person tests negative given that s/he
actually has no disease

Conditional P(test negative|not diseased).

Probability Positive Predictive Value: the probability that a person actually has the
disease, given that he tested positive for it…P(disease|test positive).

Negative Predictive Value: the probability that a person actually does

not have the disease, given that he tested negative for it….P(not
diseased|test negative).
Sensitivity and Specificity

• Sensitivity = TP/(TP + FN) = A/(A+C) = P(test+ | disease)

• Specificity = TN/(TN + FP) = D/(D+B) = P(test– | disease free)
• Positive Predictive Value (PPV) = TP/(TP+FP) = A/(A+B) = P(disease | test+)
• Negative Predictive Value (NPV) = TN/(TN+FN) = D/(D+C) = P(disease free | test-)

• TP=True positive, TN=True negative, FN=False negative, FP = False positive

Sensitivity and Specificity- Excersice

Calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive Disease Status (Gold

predictive value and negative predictive value standard)
using the following data:
• Sensitivity = TP/(TP+FN) = 100/(100+50) =
100/150 = 0.67 = 67% Positive Negative
• If an individual is diseased, there is a 67% chance that
the screening test will test positive. Screening Positive 100 50
• Specificity = TN/(TN+FP) = 100/(100+50) = Test Results
100/150 = 0.67 = 67%
• If an individual is not diseased, there is a 67% chance Negative 50 100
that the screening test will test negative.
• PPV = TP/(TP+FP) = 100/(100+50) = 100/150 =
0.67 = 67%
• If an individual screens positive, there is a 67% chance
they have the disease.
• NPV = TN/(TN+FN) = 100/(100+50) = 100/150 =
0.67 = 67%
• If an individual screens negative, there is a 67% chance
they are disease free.
 Sensitivity and Specificity- Exercise
Calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive Disease Status (Gold
predictive value and negative predictive value standard)
using the following data:
Sensitivity = TP/(TP+FN) = 66/(66+4) = 66/70 = 0.94 = 94% Positive Negative
If an individual is diseased, there is a 94% chance that the
screening test will test positive. Screening Positive 66 3
Specificity = TN/(TN+FP) = 827/(827+3) = 827/830 = 0.99 = Test Results
99% Negative 4 827
If an individual is not diseased, there is a 99% chance that
the screening test will test negative.
PPV = TP/(TP+FP) = 66/(66+3) = 66/69 = 0.96 = 96%
If an individual screens positive, there is a 96% chance
they have the disease.
NPV = TN/(TN+FN) = 827/(827+4) = 827/831 = 0.99 = 99%
If an individual screens negative, there is a 99% chance
they are disease free.