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Lecture Note Two: Bond Valuation

and Yield Measures

FINA3323 Fixed Income Securities


HKU Business School
University of Hong Kong

Dr. Huiyan Qiu


2-1
Outline
Review of time value
Calculate the price of a bond
Price-yield/coupon/time relationship
Bond pricing: complication
Price quotes and accrued interest
Conventional yield measures
Total return

Reference: Fabozzi’s chapter 2 and chapter 3, Tuckman’s


chapter 1
2-2
Review of Time Value
Time value of money refers to a dollar today is different
from a dollar in the future
n
F V  P V  ( 1  r /m )
where FV = future value
PV = present value
r = the quoted annual interest rate
m = the number of times interest is
compounded per year
n = the number of compounding periods
Review of Time Value 2-3
Future Value: Example
What is the one-year future value of $100 invested today?
Suppose the investment pays 12% per year.

Compounding Future Value


Frequency n=m ($)
Annually 1 112.0000
Quarterly 4 112.5509
Monthly 12 112.6825
Weekly 52 112.7341
Daily 365 112.7475

Note: FV increases with compounding frequency.


Review of Time Value 2-4
PV and FV: Example 1
A pension fund manager invests $2M in a Treasury Strip
that pays 6.3% per year compounded semi-annually for
5 years. What is the future value of this investment?
Answer:

n
F V  P V  ( 1  r /m )
m = 2, n = 10, and r = 6.3%

FV = 2M (1 + 0.063/2)10
= 2.7272M

Review of Time Value 2-5


PV and FV: Example 2
A fund manager gets $2.819M from $2M investment in
a municipal bond after 3 years. What is the rate of return
per year compounded semi-annually?
Answer:

n
F 2.819M
V  P =V2M ×( (1
1 + r/2)
r /m )
6

 r = 0.1177 = 11.77%

Review of Time Value 2-6


PV and FV: Example 3
A financial instrument is yielding 5.8% per year
effectively. In order to realize $2.69M at the end of 10
years, how much does the investor have to invest now?
Answer:

n
F V  P V  ( 1  r /m )
2.69M = PV × (1 + 0.058)10

 PV = 1.5307M

Review of Time Value 2-7


Example of a Time Line

Points in time

0 1 2 3
Time
1 2 3

Period 1 Period 2 Period 3


Payment Payment Payment

Review of Time Value 2-8


A Series of Cash Flows
Future Value / Present Value of a series of cash flows
is the summation of the future value / present value of
each cash flow
When the same (constant) amount of money is invested
every period, it is referred to as an annuity
• When the first investment occurs one period from now, it
is referred to as an ordinary annuity
• When the first investment occurs now (today), it is
referred to as an annuity due

Review of Time Value 2-9


Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity

Points in time

0 1 2 3 4 … n
Time
$1 $1 $1 $1 … $1
A A A A … A

Cash Flows
Review of Time Value 2-10
Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity

where A is the amount of the annuity, n is the number of


periods, and r is the interest rate per period

The term in bracket is the future value of an ordinary


annuity of $1 at the end of n periods

Review of Time Value 2-11


Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity

Points in time

0 1 2 3 4 … n
Time
$1 $1 $1 $1 … $1

A A A A … A

Review of Time Value


Cash Flows 2-12
Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity

where A is the amount of the annuity, n is the number of


periods, and r is the interest rate per period

The term in bracket is the present value of an ordinary


annuity of $1 for n periods.

Review of Time Value 2-13


Pricing a Financial Instrument
The price of any financial instrument is equal to
a) the present value of the expected cash flows from the
financial instrument or
b) the value of a portfolio that replicates the cash flows of
the financial instrument (no-arbitrage pricing
approach)
No-arbitrage pricing approach relies on the Law of One
Price: absent confounding factors (e.g., liquidity,
financing, taxes, credit risk), identical sets of cash flows
should sell for the same price.
Calculate the price of bond 2-14
No-Arbitrage: Example
Bond A, which pays you $100 in one year, costs $95
today.
Bond B, which pays you $10 in year-1 and $110 in year-
2, costs $100 today.
Bond C, which pays you $5 in year-1 and $105 in yer-2,
costs $90 today.
Question:
• Any free money / arbitrage profit?
• How to make the profit?

Calculate the price of bond 2-15


Pricing a Financial Instrument
No-arbitrage pricing approach is mainly used for pricing
fixed income derivatives. To price fixed income
securities like bond, the first approach is often taken.
(Discounted cash flow analysis.)

Determining the price requires


• An estimate of the expected cash flows
• An estimate of the appropriate required yield at which to
discount the expected cash flows

Calculate the price of bond 2-16


Pricing a Coupon Bond
The cash flows for a bond that does not have option
features (that is, non-callable, non-puttable, non-
convertible, etc.) consist of
• Periodic coupon interest payments until the maturity date
• The par (or maturity) payment at maturity

The price of the bond can be determined by adding the


present values of these two sets of cash flows

Calculate the price of bond 2-17


Pricing a Coupon Bond
The price of the bond with n periods to mature, periodic
coupon payment C, maturity payment M, and required
periodic yield r is:

Perpetual Bonds (bonds with no maturity date)

Calculate the price of bond 2-18


Pricing a Coupon Bond - Example
Consider a 20-year 10% coupon bond with a par value
of $1,000. Suppose that the required yield on this bond
is 11%. What is the price of the bond, assuming that
interest is paid semi-annually?
• n = 20 × 2 = 40
• I/Y = 11 ÷ 2 = 5.5%
• PV = -919.77
• PMT = 100 ÷ 2 = 50
• FV = 1,000

Calculate the price of bond 2-19


Pricing a Coupon Bond - Example

PV = $802.31 + $117.46 = $919.77

Calculate the price of bond 2-20


Price-Yield Relationship
First Fundamental Property: Bond price changes in
the opposite direction from the change in the required
yield
→ Price vs. yield curve is downward sloping
Second Fundamental Property: The rate of bond price
decrease is faster for low yields than it is for high yields
→ Convexity
is decreasing and convex in x.

Relationships 2-21
Price-Yield Relationship
Price-Yield Relationship for a 20-year 10% coupon bond

Yield Price ($) Change Yield Price ($) Change


0.070 1,320.33 0.105 $958.53 -41.47
0.075 1,256.89 -63.44 0.110 $919.77 -38.76
0.080 1,197.93 -58.96 0.115 883.50 -36.27
0.085 1,143.08 -54.85 0.120 849.54 -33.96
0.090 1,092.01 -51.07 0.125 817.70 -31.84
0.095 1,044.41 -47.60 0.130 787.82 -29.88
0.100 1,000.00 -44.41 0.135 759.75 -28.07
Relationships 2-22
Price-Yield Relationship

Relationships 2-23
Price-Yield and Coupon Rate
When yield is above the coupon rate, we have r > C/M
and C < rM. From bond pricing formula,

bond price is lower than its par value. We say that bond
is selling at a discount.

Similarly, when yield is below the coupon rate, bond


price is higher than its par value. We say that bond is
selling at a premium.

Relationships 2-24
Price-Yield and Coupon Rate
When yield is equal to the coupon rate, bond price is
equal to its par value → bond is selling at par.

Yield Bond price


v.s. v.s. Bond
coupon rate par value
> < Discount Bond
< > Premium Bond
= = Par Bond

Relationships 2-25
Price-Time Relationship
For bond selling at a premium or a discount, if interest
rates are unchanged, bond price will not remain constant
as the maturity of the bond decreases
• The bond price approaches par value as it approaches
maturity
• The discount bond increases in price
• The premium bond decreases in price

goes to 1 as t goes to zero.

Relationships 2-26
Price-Time Relationship
Time path for the price of a 20-year 10% bond selling at a discount
and premium as it approaches maturity
Price of Discount Bond Price of Premium Bond
Year Selling to Yield 12% Selling to Yield 7.8%
20.0 $ 849.54 $1,221.00
16.0 859.16 1,199.14
12.0 874.50 1,169.45
10.0 885.30 1,150.83
8.0 898.94 1,129.13
4.0 937.90 1,074.37
0.0 1,000.00 1,000.00
Relationships 2-27
Price-Time Relationship
Time path for the price of a 20-year 10% bond selling at a discount
and premium as it approaches maturity
130.00

120.00

110.00
Premium Bond
Discount Bond
100.00 Par Bond

90.00

80.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Relationships 2-28
Price-Time Relationship
Mathematically, after t period, the bond price is

Discount bond  r > C/M  M – C/r > 0. Pt is


increasing in t.
Premium bond  r < C/M  M – C/r < 0.  Pt is
decreasing in t.

Relationships 2-29
Changes in Bond Price
Reasons for change in price of coupon bond:

(1) Change in bond yield


• Change in credit quality of the issuer, example:
Corporate Bond downgrade from BBB to BB
• Change in required yield on comparable bonds

(2) Change in TTM as time goes on


• Mostly only a change in price, not yield

Relationships 2-30
Bond Pricing: Complication
In pricing the bonds, it is assumed that
• The next coupon payment is exactly six months away
• The cash flows are known
• The appropriate required yield can be determined
• One rate is used to discount all cash flows

What happens when these assumptions are violated?

Complications 2-31
1. The Next Coupon Payment is Due in
Less than 6 Months
The accepted method for computing the price of the
bond is:

where

Complications 2-32
1. The Next Coupon Payment is Due in
Less than 6 Months
How to calculate fractional time periods? A day count
convention tells us how many days to assume in each
month and year.
Which day count convention to apply depends on the
type of interest instrument traded and on the country
where this instrument is traded.
• Actual/360
• Actual/Actual
• 30/360
Refer to Appendix A for more details.
Complications 2-33
2. The Cash Flows may not be Known
In applying bond pricing formula, we assume that the
cash flows of the bond are known. For most bonds,
however, the cash flows are not known with certainty.
Examples:
• Callable Bonds
• Puttable Bonds
• Convertible Bonds
• Floating Rate Bonds
• Foreign-denominated Bonds

Complications 2-34
2. The Cash Flows may not be Known
For bond with uncertain future cash flows, we need to
examine the relationship between future cash flows and
discount rates.
 Example: callable bonds. If interest rates drop far enough,
an issuer might call a bond and the bond holder receives
call price and no further cash flows.

We will learn how to deal with these in the coming


lectures.

Complications 2-35
3. The Appropriate Required Yield must
be Determined
The required yield for a bond has two components:
• The interest rate information embedded in the government
bond or swap curve. All required yields are benchmarked
off yields offered by government bond or swap curves.
• The interest rate information depending on the credit
characteristics of the individual bond issuer.
Benchmark interest rate and interest rate models.

Complications 2-36
4. One Discount Rate may not be
Applicable to Cash Flows
A bond can be viewed as a package of zero-coupon
bonds. Zero-coupon bonds with different maturity have
different prices.

In this case, a unique discount rate should be used to


determine the present value of each cash flow
• Term Structure of Interest Rate

Complications 2-37
Full Price, Clean Price and Accrued Interest

The full price (known as dirty price) of a bond is the


price paid by a buyer to a seller. This is simply the
present value of future cash flows. It is calculated by

where

Price Quotes 2-38


Full Price, Clean Price and Accrued Interest

The full price or invoice price reflects the value of the


bond at the settlement date. In practice, however, full
price P is separated into two parts:
• a quoted or flat price p (known as clean price), which is
the price that appears on trading screens and is used when
negotiating transactions

• accrued interest AI, which is the part of coupon payment


that the seller is entitled to

Price Quotes 2-39


Accrued Interest
Conventionally, accrued interest is calculated as

Instead of being made to wait for a share of the interest


until the next coupon date, the seller receives that share
at settlement. Too generous? Does it matter?
NO! The only quantity that matters is the invoice price,
which determines the amount of money that changes
hands.

Price Quotes 2-40


Why Bother?
Why is the accrued interest convention useful in
practice?
Suppose the market interest rate does not change within
a coupon period.
• The full price of bond increases over time as the bond’s
payments draw near. (Same future cash flows discounting
at the same rate for less time.)
• The full price drops by the coupon payment from the
instant before the coupon payment date to an instant after.

Price Quotes 2-41


Full Price and Clean Price
105.50
105.00
104.50
104.00 Full Price
103.50 Clean Price
103.00

Figure: Full and Clean prices for the 3.625% of August 15, 2019, Over
Time with a Constant Discount Function with 3% yield

The full price changes dramatically over time even when the
market is unchanged, including a discontinuous jump on
coupon payment dates, while the clean price changes only
gradually over time.
Price Quotes 2-42
Track Clean Prices
Therefore, when trading bonds day to day, it is more
intuitive to track flat prices (clean prices) and negotiate
transactions in those terms.

By convention, price is quoted as clean price and


taxation, etc. will be based on the clean price. It is much
easier to work with the clean price.

Price Quotes 2-43


Accrued Interest - Example
Consider a bond with $100 par value, semi-annual
coupon payments of $4.50, and 1.75 years remaining
until maturity.
Suppose the discount rate is 10%.

Calculate the “dirty” price of the bond (accrued interest


is included), and the “clean” price of the bond (accrued
interest is excluded).

Price Quotes 2-44


Accrued Interest - Example
Full price (dirty price) is the present value of future cash
flows. Periodic coupon payment is $4.50 and periodic
discount rate is 5%. Thus,

Price Quotes 2-45


Yield to Maturity for a Bond
The Yield to Maturity for a bond, y, is the internal rate of
return that satisfies
C C C C M
P= + + +...+ +
1+ y  1+ y  1+ y 
2 3
1+ y  1+ y 
n n

n
C M
P = +
1+ y  1+ y 
t n
t =1

Yield to Maturity (YTM) represents the return for investing


in the bond when (1) the investor holds to maturity and (2)
re-investment rate remains at YTM
Yield Measures 2-46
Market Convention
For a semi-annual coupon paying bond, doubling the
periodic interest rate or discount rate (y) gives the annual
yield to maturity.

• The yield to maturity computed on the basis of this


market convention is called the bond-equivalent yield
• This under-states the effective annual yield

• Effective Annual Yield = (1 + periodic yield)m – 1

Yield Measures 2-47


Conventional Yield Measures
Bond yield measures commonly quoted by dealers and
used by portfolio managers are:
• Current Yield
• Stated Yield
• Yield to Maturity
• Yield to Call
• Yield to Put
• Yield to Worst
• Cash Flow yield
• Yield for a Portfolio (Internal Rate of Return)
Yield Measures 2-48
Current Yield, Stated Yield and YTM
Current Yield = Annual dollar coupon / Price

Stated Yield = Coupon Rate

Yield to Maturity (YTM)


• Simple Annual Yield (on a bond-equivalent basis)
• Effective Annual Yield

Yield Measures 2-49


An Example
10-year, 6.375%, par $1,000, price of bond = $1,006.25
• Current Yield = $63.75 / $1,006.25 = 6.34%
• Stated Yield = 6.375%
• Semi-annual yield is y

20
63.75 / 2 1,000
1,006.25   t
 20
(1  y ) (1  y )
→ y = 3.1449% (usingt Excel
1
or Financial Calculator)
• YTM (Bond Equivalent Basis) = 6.2898%
• YTM (Effective Yield) = 6.3887%

Yield Measures 2-50


Yield to Call
When a bond is callable, the price at which it may be
called is referred to as the call price
The yield to call for a callable bond, y, is found in a
similar way to the yield to maturity, but with M* being
the call price and n* being the number of periods until
the assumed call date

Yield Measures 2-51


Yield to Call - Example
Calculate the yield to call for an 18-year 11% coupon
bond with a maturity value of $1,000 selling for $1,169.
Assume that the first call date is 8 years from now and
that the call price is $1,055.

16
110 / 2 1,055
1,169   t
 16
→ y = 4.2675% (using (1  y ) (1  y )
t 1 Excel or Financial Calculator)

• YTM (Bond Equivalent Basis) = 8.535%


• YTM (Effective Yield) = 8.7171%

Yield Measures 2-52


Yield to Put
When a bond is puttable, the price at which it may be
put back to the issuer is referred to as the put price

The yield to put is the interest rate that makes the present
value of the cash flows to the assumed put date plus the
put price on that date as set forth in the put schedule
equal to the bond’s price

Yield Measures 2-53


Yield to Worst
A practice in the industry is for an investor to calculate
for a given bond
• The yield to maturity
• The yield to call for every possible call date
• The yield to put for every possible put date

The minimum of all these yields is called the yield to


worst

Yield Measures 2-54


Cash Flow Yield
Amortizing securities involve cash flows that include
interest plus principal repayment and the cash flow each
period consists of three components:
i. coupon interest
ii. scheduled principal repayment
iii. Prepayments: the amount above scheduled
For amortizing securities, the internal rate of return
which makes the present value of projected cash flows
equal to the market price is called cash flow yield.

Yield Measures 2-55


Yield for a Portfolio
The yield for a portfolio of bonds is not simply the
average or weighted average of the yield to maturity of
the individual bond issues in the portfolio.
The yield is computed by determining the cash flows for
the portfolio and determining the interest rate that will
make the present value of the cash flows equal to the
market value of the portfolio. (Internal rate of return!)

Yield Measures 2-56


Yield for a Portfolio – Example
Consider a three-bond portfolio
Coupon Maturity Yield to
Bond Par Value Price
Rate (years) Maturity
A 7.0% 5 $10,000,000 $9,209,000 9.0%
B 10.5% 7 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 10.5%
C 6.0% 3 $30,000,000 $28,050,000 8.5%

To simplify the example, it is assumed that the coupon


payments date is the same for each bond
The portfolio’s total market value is $57,259,000

Yield Measures 2-57


Yield for a Portfolio – Example
Period Cash
Bond A Bond B Bond C Portfolio
Flow Received
1 $350,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $2,300,000
2 $350,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $2,300,000
3 $350,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $2,300,000
4 $350,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $2,300,000
5 $350,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $2,300,000
6 $350,000 $1,050,000 $30,900,000 $32,300,000
7 $350,000 $1,050,000 $1,400,000
8 $350,000 $1,050,000 $1,400,000
9 $350,000 $1,050,000 $1,400,000
10 $10,350,000 $1,050,000 $11,400,000
11 $1,050,000 $1,050,000
12 $1,050,000 $1,050,000
13 $1,050,000 $1,050,000
14 $21,050,000 $21,050,000
Yield Measures 2-58
Yield for a Portfolio – Example
To find the yield (internal rate of return) for this three-
bond portfolio, the interest rate must be found that
makes the present value of the cash flows shown in the
last column equal to the market value of the bond
portfolio, $57,259,000.
An interest rate of 4.77% is calculated
Doubling this gives 9.54%, which is the yield for the
portfolio on a bond-equivalent basis.

Yield Measures 2-59


Conventional Yield Measures: Limitations

Conventional yield measures have several limitations:


• Assumes holding to maturity
• Reinvestments at YTM

To overcome these limitations, we need another return


measure to better present the rate of return of a bond
investment.

Yield Measures 2-60


Total Return
An investor who purchases a bond can expect to receive
a dollar return from one or more of these sources:
1) the periodic coupon interest payments made by the
issuer
2) any capital gain or loss when the bond matures, is called,
or is sold
3) interest income generated from reinvestment of the
periodic cash flows (i.e., interest on interest)

Total Return 2-61


Advantage of Total Return
The total return (bond investment return) measure
• assumes a given holding period (usually shorter than
maturity) appropriate for the investor
• and incorporates an explicit assumption about the re-
investment rate (that are different from YTM).
The total return calculated over an investment horizon is
referred to as horizon return.
Such horizon analysis framework enables a portfolio
manager to analyze the performance of a bond under
different scenarios.

Total Return 2-62


Computing the Total Return for a Bond
Step 1 – Compute the total coupon payments plus the
interest on interest based on the assumed reinvestment
rate. The result is V1.
Step 2 – Determine the projected sale price at the end of
the planned investment horizon, V2.
Step 3 – Find the total future dollars = V1 +V2.
Step 4 – Obtain the periodic total return

Total Return 2-63


Total Return: Example
Suppose that an investor has a six-year investment
horizon, and is considering a 13-year 9% coupon bond
selling at par. The investor’s expectations are:
• The first four semiannual coupon payments can be
reinvested at a simple annual interest rate of 8%
• The last eight semiannual coupon payments can be
reinvested at a 10% simple annual interest rate
• The required yield to maturity on seven-year bonds at the
end of the investment horizon will be 10.6%

Total Return 2-64


Total Return: Example (cont’d)
Analysis:
• Purchase price of bond: $1,000
• Periodic coupon payment: $45
• Investment periods: 6 years, 12 periods
Step 1: future value of coupon payment is

Total Return 2-65


Total Return: Example (cont’d)
Step 2: the project sale price is 922.31
Step 3: total future dollars is
V1 +V2 = $1,613.54
Step 4: The seminal total return is

The annual total return is 8.14% (8.31% effectively).

Total Return 2-66


End of the Notes!

2-67
Appendix A

DAY COUNT CONVENTION

2-68
Day Count Convention
A day count convention is a system used in the bond
markets to determine the number of days between two
coupon dates.
This system is important to traders of various bonds
because it affects how the accrued interest and present
value of future coupons is calculated.
The conventions were developed in different markets in
order to simplify calculations (before the days of
calculators and computers), but they have continued to
persist.
2-69
Calculating Interest Earned
The day count convention is usually expressed as X / Y.
When calculating the interest earned between two dates,
• X defines the way in which the number of days between
the two dates is calculated
• Y defines the way in which the total number of days in the
reference period is measured
The interest earned between the two dates is

2-70
Basic Day Count Conventions
Actual/360
Actual/Actual
30/360

Note: same methods may have slightly different


interpretation and implementation in different market.
Wikipedia contains a very detail discussion on this.
Check: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_count_convention

2-71
Actual/360
This calculates the actual number of days between two
dates and assumes that the year has 360 days

This convention is most commonly used when


calculating the accrued interest for commercial paper, T-
bills and other short-term debt instruments that have less
than one year to expiration.

2-72
Actual/Actual
This day count convention calculates the actual number
of days between two dates and assumes the year has
either 365 or 366 days depending on whether the year is
a leap year
This day count basis is used for most government bonds.
The UK money market and the money market in Hong
Kong and China use Actual/Actual day count
convention.

2-73
30/360
This day count convention assumes that each month has
30 days and the total number of days in the year is 360.
This day count convention is used for U.S. corporate and
municipal bonds.
Example: February 21, 2011 to May 2, 2012.
• Number of days: 2 – 21 + 30(5 – 2) + 360 = 431
• Number of years: 431/360

2-74
Financial Calculator
Using BAII Plus to  2nd, DATE,
calculate the number of  DT1 = 2.2111, ENTER, ↓
days between 02/21/11  DT2 = 5.0212, ENTER, ↓
and 05/02/12, using  ↓ (ACT or 360) Assume ACT
An Actual day count  ↑, DBD = ?, CPT
 436
A 360 day count
 ↓, 2nd, SET (change to 360)
 ↑, DBD = ?, CPT
 431

2-75

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