8 Transportation Planning

CE341-Transportation Engineering
Transportation Planning
Dr. Ibrahim Alsghan
CE341-Transportation Engineering
1
Understand how
decisions to build
transportation
facilities are made
Understand basic
elements of the
Objectives transportation
planning process
Understand basic
elements of travel
forecasting
CE341-Transportation Engineering 2
• The decision process of building new
transportation facilities.
• The transportation planning process is
Basic not intended to furnish a decision or to
Elements Of give a single result that must be
followed,
The • Rather, the process is intended to
Transportati give the appropriate information to
those who will be responsible for
on Planning deciding whether the transportation
project should go forward.
Basic Elements Of The Transportation
Planning
Basic Elements Of The Transportation
Planning
Urban transportation planning
involves the evaluation and
selection of highway or transit
facilities to serve present and
future land uses.
Basic
Elements Of
The
Transportation
Planning
Two time horizons:
Short-term Long-term
• (over 1 -3 years) • (over 20 years)
Economic activity (employment,
sales volume, income, etc.), land
use (type, intensity), travel
characteristics (trip and traveler
profile), and transportation
Forecasting Data collection
(population,
facilities (capacity, travel speed,
etc.), population and demography,
Travel land use,etc.) Origin-destination trip data.
Demand
• There are four basic
Analyze the data collected in the data collection stage.
elements and related You may build mathematical models describe the
tasks in the process,. existing conditions and then use the relationships you
have found in the existing parameters to forecast
Analysis of existing
These are: conditions and future values.
calibration
4-step transportation demand forecasting process

Forecast of future
travel demand
Analyze what you get from the 4-step demand

forecasting process
Analysis of the results
Study Area
TAZ’s
• Basis of analysis of travel
movements within, into,
and out of the urban area
• Zone: area of homogeneous
socioeconomic
characteristics
• Set of zones can be
aggregated into larger units
called Districts or
Superzones
• Prior to collecting and summarizing data, it is necessary to
identify the study area boundaries and to subdivide it into
traffic analysis zones (TAZ).
• The selection of these zones is based on:

1. Socioeconomic characteristics should be
homogeneous.
Defining 2. Intra-zonal trips should be minimized
3. Physical, political, and historical boundaries
Study Area should be utilized wherever possible.
4. Zones should not be created within other zones.
5. The zone system should generate and attract
approximately equal trips, households,
population, or area.
6. Zones should use tract boundaries where possible
7. Total number of zones should not be large
• It may be necessary to exercise some
judgment in determining the total
number of zones.
• For example, one guideline for

establishing the total number within a
study area is that there should be, on
Defining average, one zone per 1,000 people (such
that an area with 500,000 people would
Study Area have 500 total zones).
• The internal trip table for such a study

area will thus have 500 500 250,000
cells (e.g., trips from zone 1 to zone 1,
trips from zone 1 to zone 2, trips from
zone 1 to zone 3, and so forth).
• A computerized network of the existing
street and highway system is produced.
The network consists of a series of links,
centroids and nodes:
Urban • A link is a portion of the network that

can be described by its capacity, lane
Transportation width, and speed.
Planning • A node is the end point of a link and
represents an intersection or location
Process where a link changes direction,
capacity, width, or speed.
• A centroid is the location within a
zone where trips are considered to
begin and end.
Defining Study Area
1. Population and economic analysis
determines the magnitude and extent of
activity in the urban area.
2. Land use analysis determines where the
activities will be located.
3. Trip generation determines how many
Travel trips each activity will produce or
attract.
Demand 4. Trip distribution determines the origin
Forecasting or destination of trips that are
generated at a given activity.
Process 5. Modal split determines which mode of
transportation will be used to make the
trip.
6. Traffic assignment determines which
route on the transportation network to
minimize travel time.
4-Step demand forecasting Process
Travel Demand Forecasting Process
Travel Demand Model
Flowchart
• Travel Demand is expressed as the
number of persons or vehicles per unit
time that can be expected to travel on
a given segment of a transportation
system under a set of given land-use,
socioeconomic, and environmental
conditions.
4-Step Travel
Demand • Methods for forecasting demand can
range from a simple extrapolation of
Model observed trends to a sophisticated
computerized process involving
extensive data gathering and
mathematical modeling.
The travel demand forecasting process

is as much an art as it is a science
1. Travel Demand Studies for Urban
Areas
• extensive databases be prepared
using home interview and/or
roadside interview surveys
• Data is aggregated by zone or
Demand smaller level such as household
Forecasting
2. Intercity Travel Demand
Approaches • data is generally aggregated to a
greater extent than for urban travel
forecasting, such as city population,
average city income, and travel
time or travel cost
1. Location and intensity of land use;
• Land-use characteristics are a
primary determinant of travel
demand
2. Socioeconomic characteristics of
Factors people living in the area;
Influencing • Lifestyles and values affect how
people decide to use their
Travel resources for transportation
Demand 3. Extent, cost, and quality of

available transportation services
• Travelers are sensitive to the level
of service provided by alternative
transportation modes
Sequential Steps for
Travel Forecasting
• Firstly, study area must be

delineated into set of traffic
analysis zones (TAZ)
• The set of zones can be

aggregated into larger units,
called districts,
• It is the process of determining the
number of trips that will begin
(Production) or end (Attraction) in
each traffic zone within a study area.
• Trip generation analysis has two

functions:
Trip • To develop a relationship between
Generation trip-end production or attraction
and land use, and
• To use the relationship developed
to estimate the number of trips
generated at some future date
under a new set of land-use
conditions
• Trips purpose are grouped into 3
major categories:
• Home-based Work HBW
• Home-based Other HBO
Trip • Non Home-based NHB
Generation
• Separate estimate of trip
generation should be done for
each of the trip purposes.
Trip Generation
• Two methods are used for trip generation:

• Cross-classification (Rate analysis)
• Regression analysis, which has been applied to estimate both
productions and attractions
Cross-classification (Rate analysis)
• It is a technique developed by the
Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA) to determine the number
of trips that begin or end at the
home.
• Home based trip generation is
Trip useful because it can represent a
Generation significant proportion of all trips.
• The first step is to develop a
relationship between
socioeconomic measures and trip
production
• The most commonly used
variables are average income and
auto ownership (also family size)
Trip Generation
It can be
average
income
(1098)/925= 1.19 Trips

/household
Trip Generation
≤
1(20) 3(60) 1(20)
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Linear Regression Analysis
• Regression analysis
Trip Y = A+ BX1 + CX2
Generation
Y = dependent variable (i.e. # trips)
A,B,C= constants
X1 , X2 = independent variables
• Calibration (Y = A+ BX1 + CX2 )
For existing Y & X,
find all constants A,B,C.
• Prediction
Trip Given A, B and C (from calibration) and
estimate values for X, you can find the
Generation expected y .
e.g. Given that A= 50 , B= 0.4
y = 50 + 0.4 (population)
find the expected # trips produced at
residential zone having 1000 persons.
y = 50 + 0.4(1000) = 450 trips
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Example
from U.S.:
ITE Trip
Generation
Manual
Determine, based on
field observations, the
average number of trips
to and from the site per
unit adopted for the
Land use.
Dwelling
Units
 Average
trip ends
rate
during
a.m. Peak
hour
Dwelling
Units
• Average trip
ends rate
during p.m.
Peak
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Output of
Distribution Step
• Origin-destination (O-D)
matrices
• Internal vs. External trips
• Internal trips, those
whose origin and
destination are confined
into a city limit
• External trips, those
whose destination is
beyond city or town
limits
• Why is it important to
differentiate them?
• Trip distribution is a process by
which the trips generated in one
zone are allocated to other zones
Trip in the study area. Several basic
methods are used:
Distribution
• The gravity model
• Growth factor models
Trip Distribution
The gravity model

• States that the number of trips
between two zones is directly
proportional to the number of trip
attractions generated by the zone of
destination & inversely proportional to
a function of time of travel between
the two zones. Mathematically,
expressed as follows:
• F values can also be determined using travel time values
and an inverse relationship between F and t.
• For example, the relationship for F might be in the form:
• The socioeconomic factor Kij is used to make adjustments

of trip distribution values between zones where
Trip differences between estimated and actual values differ
significantly.
Distribution
Trip Distribution
Trip Distribution
• Trip distribution can also be

computed when the only data
available are the origins and
destinations between each zone for
the current or base year and the trip
generation values for each zone for
the future year.
• The most popular growth factor

model is the Fratar method, which is
a mathematical formula that
proportions future trip generation
estimates
Trip Distribution
• The following
example illustrates
the application of
the growth factor
method.
• It determines the number (or
percentage) of trips between zones
that are made by automobile, by
transit, or any other means of
transportation
• It is a complex process that depends

Mode Choice on factors such as:
• Traveler's income,
• Availability of transit service or
auto ownership,
• Relative advantages of each mode
in terms of travel time, cost,
comfort, convenience, and safety.
Logit Models
• An approach used in
transportation demand
analysis is to consider the
relative utility of each mode
Mode Choice as a summation of each
modal attribute.
• Then the choice of a mode is

expressed as a probability
distribution
Mode Choice
• For example, assume that the utility of

each mode is:
• If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T), are

being considered, the probability of
selecting the auto mode A can be written as
Mode Choice
Mode Choice
Mode Choice
Mode Choice
Traffic
Assignment
• It is used to determine
the actual street and
highway routes that will
be used and the number
of automobiles and
buses that can be
expected on each
highway segment.
• It is used to determine
the expected traffic
volumes
• To carry out a trip assignment,
the following data are required:
• Number of trips that will be

made from one zone to
another
Traffic • Available highway or transit
routes between zones,
Assignment • How long it will take to travel
on each route,
• A decision rule (or algorithm)
that explains how motorists
or transit users select a route,
Traffic Assignment
• Three basic approaches
can be used for traffic
assignment purposes:
• Diversion curves
• Minimum time path

(all-or-nothing)
assignment,
• Minimum time with
capacity constraints

8 Transportation Planning

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8 Transportation Planning

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CE341-Transportation Engineering

Dr. Ibrahim Alsghan

4-step transportation demand forecasting process

Analyze what you get from the 4-step demand

• The selection of these zones is based on:

• For example, one guideline for

• The internal trip table for such a study

Urban • A link is a portion of the network that

4-Step demand forecasting Process

The travel demand forecasting process

Demand 3. Extent, cost, and quality of

• Firstly, study area must be

• The set of zones can be

• Trip generation analysis has two

• Two methods are used for trip generation:

(1098)/925= 1.19 Trips

The gravity model

• For example, the relationship for F might be in the form:

• The socioeconomic factor Kij is used to make adjustments

• Trip distribution can also be

• The most popular growth factor

• It is a complex process that depends

• Then the choice of a mode is

• For example, assume that the utility of

• If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T), are

• Number of trips that will be

• Minimum time path

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