Presented by

MBA08199 Sourav Sahoo

UNDERSTANDING MBA08205 Swikriti Srivastava
MBA08228 Vikas Yadav
POLITICAL POLLS MBA08235 Alamuri Jaswanthi
MBA08247 Vidisha Pandey
MBA08256 Devireddy Reshma Reddy
 CASE SUMMARY
• Barb Blucher, an independent lawyer and aspiring
politician, was perusing the news about political
polls.
• She identified key statements from the article but
didn't understand what she read in the statements.
• The headline read "Liberals head to new majority,
new poll says."
• As an aspiring politician, she recognizes the
importance of understanding how polls work.
• She expressed her reservations in an email to her
former statistics professor.
• In a follow-up email, the professor explained her
concerns and asked her to interpret another article
consisting of two passages.
 RANDOM SAMPLING
• Each sample has an equal
chance of being chosen as part
of random sampling.
• A randomly selected sample is
intended to be a fair reflection
of the entire population.
• Greater sample size results in
more accurate population
representation.
COLLECTING A RANDOM SAMPLE
Describe Describe the demographics

Determine Determine the sample size

Select the sample at random

Select • Lottery method
• Use of radon numbers

Collect Collect data from your sample

 FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN
CREATING A SAMPLE FRAME
A good
example of a Include everyone who belongs to the target population.
project frame Include no one who is not a member of the target
for a living population.
conditions Contains precise data that can be utilized to contact
project might particular people.
be:

A distinguishing mark for every member. This might be a

Other general straightforward numerical identifier (e.g., from 1 to 1000).
elements you Make sure there aren't any duplicates in the frame by
should check checking.
to see A sensible structure for the list. For instance, arrange them
whether you alphabetically.
have: Current information. It might be necessary to verify this
periodically (e.g., for address changes).
 The case says that 38%
will vote Liberal. Is this a
fact or an estimate ?

It is only an estimate

Reasons :
• Asking about voting intentions gives only prediction
• Margin of error is given as 1.91%. Total survey error
need to assessed and evaluated.
• Obviously, we do not know exactly how many
people in Canada will vote liberal.
The case says that the survey is accurate within
1.9% points.
• 1.9 % is the margin of error
• The poll survey reports 38% vote for Liberals
and 26% vote for Conservatives.
• But the true values would be as high as 39.9%,
or as low as 36.1% for liberals.
• 38%‡1.9%
• Would fall within the range of 24.1% to 27.9%
for conservatives.
• 26%‡1.9%
The case says that the • 2,638 is the total number of individuals who completed the

sample consisted of
survey.
• If we estimate the number of samples by taking confidence as

2,638 people.
95% and margin error as 1.9%, then
n=((z-( α/2))^2p^*(1-p^*))/E^2
Here, taking p^* as 0.5
n=2660
• So, necessary sample size for given confidence and margin
error is 2,660.
The case also says
the results are
accurate 19 times
out of 20.
• This means that if we were to conduct the same survey 20 times, we would find that the vote for liberals would fall between
36.1% and 39.9% and the vote for conservatives would fall between 24.1% to 27.9% in 19 out of the 20 times
• In only one out of 20 surveys, we can expect the voting percentage to be higher or lower than these percentages.
• Confidence interval is 95%.
• 95% of all samples taken from the same population will have the same margin of error.
 The Ontario poll has 940 people, where as the
national poll had 2,638 people.
In Ontario Poll,
In National Poll,
Confidence=95%
Confidence=95%
Error margin=3.2%
Error margin=3.2%
Taking p^* as 0.5
Taking p^* as 0.5
n=((z-( α/2))^2p^*(1-p^*))/E^2
n=((z-( α/2))^2p^*(1-p^*))/E^2
=937.89
=2660
=938

There might be population difference in both the areas due to which there is the
difference in the sample size
How does the smaller sample size affect the results? How can
the pollsters still be confident that the poll is right 19 times
out of 20?
• Because margin of error is lower with larger
sample sizes, the results of the poll are less
accurate when they are smaller.
n=((z-( α/2))^2p^*(1-p^*))/E^2
Here, E∝1/n
• Now, if n decreases and E increases, (z-( α/2)
will remain constant according to the
formula above.
• Hence the 19/20 confidence level remains
the same.
 • We don't agree with the journalist's
conclusion.
• For the following reasons:
• Sampling bias might affect survey results -
Does the sample have the proper
distribution of the target population's age
groups? For the purpose of achieving the
proper demographic proportions, is the data
weighted by factors such as age, gender,
education, race, etc.?
The journalist said that • The case provides a margin of error (3.2).
Therefore, the drop is not too great if the
support drops true value turns out to be 37.2%.

dramatically after age

65.