Slide

Title : The
Group Member:
impact of 1.Richie anak Majid (76632)
economic 2.Watson Abap Anak Ladi(77143)
indicator on 3.Leshvindren (75412)
unemployment 4.Adrian Wong Sie Wei (73947)
in Singapore
Frictional
unemploymen
t
Seasonal Structural
Introduction unemploymen
t
unemploymen
t
Cyclical
unemploymen
t
 This study focuses on The impact of economic indicator on unemployment
in Singapore from the year 1991 to 2020.
 Singapore is ranked 1st among 39 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and
its overall score is above the regional and world averages
 The employment market in Singapore is competitive, with fewer job
Background vacancies than unemployed persons
of study  5 percent of Singaporean youth under 30 are jobless.

 Cyclical unemployment has increased since the first quarter of 2016 due to
the total demand for domestic goods and services increases slowly relative
to the supply of labour in the economy.
 Structural unemployment rises when the pace of technological
advancement increases
RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
The objectives of this study are:

I. To examine the impact of consumer price index (CPI), Gross Domestic
Product(GDP), labor and population in Singapore
Population and Unemployment
LITERATURE REVIEW Maqbool et al. Dalmar et al. Maijama’a et
(2013) (2017) al. (2019)
• Pakistan • Somalia • Nigeria
(1976-2012) (1995-2014) (1991-2017)
• Positive • Positive • Positive
Labor and Unemployment
Congregado et al. Lee & Paranis (2014) Liu (2014)

(2011) • There is a negative • Labor and
• Labor has negative relationship unemployment
impact towards between labor and shows negative
unemployment unemployment relationship
Consumer Price Index and Unemployment
Wei Yan Feng Md. Tanjil Hossain Chang Shuai Li et

(2012) et al,(2014) al, (2012)
• Japanese (1979- • Bangladesh • China (1978-
2010) (2000 -2011) 2010)
• Positive • Positive • Positive
Population and Unemployment
Maijama’a et al.
Maqbool et al. (2013) Dalmar et al. (2017)
(2019)
• Population has • Population has
• Population has
positive impact positive impact
positive impact
towards towards
towards
unemployment unemployment
unemployment
Methodology
3.1 Conceptual Framework
Gross
Population
Domestics
Products
(GDP)
Unemployment Consumer Price
Labor Index (CPI)
3.2 Estimated Five Model

• Linear Model- continuous response variable as a function of one or more predictor variables.
• Double Log Model- Using natural logs for variables on both sides of your econometric specification
• Log-Linear Model-a mathematical model that takes the form of a function whose logarithm equals a
linear combination of the parameters of the model.
• Lin-Log Model- use natural log values for your independent variables (X) and keep your dependent
variable (Y) in its original scale
• Reciprocal Model-describes creative work as a cyclical four-step process.
Normality test (Jarque-Bera Test)
Ramsey RESET Test
Methodology Autocorrelation
(Diagnostic
Test) Heteroskedasticity
CUSUM Test
Granger Causality Test
Discussion Model S.E.R M.D.V CV=SER/MDV
Estimated Five Model Linear 11.95337 82.04333 0.1456958171
Double Log 0.126730 4.338016 0.02921381572
Log-Linear 0.126730 4.338016 0.0310038045

Linear-Log 11.14160 82.04333 0.1358014113
Reciprocal 11.14160 82.04333 0.14754484
8
Series: Residuals
7 Sample 1991 2020
Observations 30
6
5 Mean -3.17e-14
Median 1.333023
4 Maximum 21.26952
Minimum -21.05132
3 Std. Dev. 11.09843
2 Skewness -0.169807
Kurtosis 2.196025
1
Jarque-Bera 0.952143
0 Probability 0.621219
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
NORMALITY TEST -  The p-value is 0.621219 which is greater than 5% or

0.05 significance level. The null hypothesis is not
JARGUE BERA TEST rejected which is the data are normally distributed.
Ram s ey RESET Tes t
Equation: UNTITLED
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
Specification: LUNEM LCPI LGDP LLABOR LPOP C
Value df Probability
t-s tatis tic 0.774505 24 0.4462
RAMSEY RESET
F-s tatis tic 0.599858 (1, 24) 0.4462
Likelihood ratio 0.740605 1 0.3895
F-test s um m ary:
Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares
Tes t SSR 0.009791 1 0.009791
Res tricted SSR 0.401510 25 0.016060
Unres tricted SSR 0.391719 24 0.016322
LR test s um m ary:  The p-value is 0.0268 which is lower than 5% or 0.05 significance
level. The null hypothesis is rejected, which is the model is not
Value
Res tricted LogL 22.13766
Unres tricted LogL 22.50797
correctly specified.
Unres tricted Tes t Equation:
Dependent Variable: LUNEM
Method: Leas t Squares
Date: 06/06/22 Time: 21:30
Sam ple: 1991 2020
Included obs ervations : 30
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LCPI 1.022820 5.427610 0.188448 0.8521

LGDP 0.330728 1.551618 0.213151 0.8330
LLABOR 1.233137 6.542982 0.188467 0.8521
LPOP -4.079493 20.41052 -0.199872 0.8433
C 47.79269 226.1496 0.211332 0.8344
FITTED^2 0.165385 0.213536 0.774505 0.4462
R-squared 0.916330 Mean dependent var 4.338016

Adjus ted R-s quared 0.898898 S.D. dependent var 0.401793
S.E. of regres s ion 0.127756 Akaike info criterion -1.100531
Sum squared res id 0.391719 Schwarz criterion -0.820292
Log likelihood 22.50797 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.010880
F-s tatis tic 52.56804 Durbin-Wats on s tat 2.142501
Prob(F-s tatis tic) 0.000000
Type of P-value of Conclusion
test Chi-Square
AutoCorrelation BG 0.5941 Do not reject
Test
Null
hypothesis
The p-value (0.2300) is greater than 5% significance
Heteroskedasticity level. Hence, the null hypothesis is not rejected.
Testn
The p-value (0.3814) is greater than 5% significance level.

Hence, the null hypothesis is not rejected. BPG indicate no
issue and WHITE test also suggest no issue
CUSUM
Test
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.
LCPI does not Granger Cause LUNEM 29 2.71766 0.1113
LUNEM does not Granger Cause LCPI 0.03716 0.8486
Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

LUNEM does not Granger Cause LGDP
LLABOR does not Granger Cause LUNEM
29
29
1.7361
1.65102
4.60652
0.1991
0.2102
0.0414
Causality (Lag
LUNEM does not Granger Cause LLABOR 0.329 0.5712
LPOP does not Granger Cause LUNEM 29 4.0287 0.0552
LUNEM does not Granger Cause LPOP 0.53119 0.4726
1)
LGDP does not Granger Cause LCPI 29 13.332 0.0012
LCPI does not Granger Cause LGDP 0.83583 0.369
LLABOR does not Granger Cause LCPI 29 2.50352 0.1257
LCPI does not Granger Cause LLABOR 0.39482 0.5353
LPOP does not Granger Cause LCPI 29 2.84424 0.1037
LCPI does not Granger Cause LPOP 1.61338 0.2153
LLABOR does not Granger Cause LGDP 29 0.05116 0.8228
LGDP does not Granger Cause LLABOR 13.6374 0.001
LPOP does not Granger Cause LGDP 29 0.18364 0.6718
LGDP does not Granger Cause LPOP 8.76057 0.0065
LPOP does not Granger Cause LLABOR 29 12.2347 0.0017
LLABOR does not Granger Cause LPOP 0.3311 0.57

28
28
6.84547
1.71606
1.512
0.0046
0.202
0.2416
Causality (Lag
2)
LPOP does not Granger Cause LLABOR 28 15.8627 5.00E-05

27
27
4.9503
1.06495
0.50855
0.0099
0.3862
0.6809
Causality (Lag
3)

26
26
3.64648
1.65837
0.59218
0.0254
0.2058
0.673
Causality (Lag
4)

25
25
3.49805
2.10231
0.47844
0.0293
0.1256
0.7865
Causality (Lag
5)

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Title : The

of study  5 percent of Singaporean youth under 30 are jobless.

The objectives of this study are:

Labor and Unemployment

Congregado et al. Lee & Paranis (2014) Liu (2014)

Wei Yan Feng Md. Tanjil Hossain Chang Shuai Li et

Population and Unemployment

3.2 Estimated Five Model

Log-Linear 0.126730 4.338016 0.0310038045

NORMALITY TEST -  The p-value is 0.621219 which is greater than 5% or

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

LCPI 1.022820 5.427610 0.188448 0.8521

R-squared 0.916330 Mean dependent var 4.338016

The p-value (0.3814) is greater than 5% significance level.

Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

Granger LGDP does not Granger Cause LUNEM

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