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Rps Bahan Ajar 9
Rps Bahan Ajar 9
Makro
Mikro
APA ITU KEUANGAN ?
MAKRO
Investor
Individu
Perusahaan/
Perusahaan REKSA DANA BANK Bdan Usaha
Kelebihan Dana / UMUM - Mgt Keuangan
Mempunyai dana
Produk
uang
Jasa
AGENCY THEORY
PERUSAHAAN: AGEN
PEMEGANG SAHAM
Goal of the Firm
7
FIXED COST ( - )
HASIL NET OPERATING INCOME / EBIT ( - )
Investasi TAX
NOPAT ( + )
DEPRECIATION
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( - )
FIXED ASSET
11
Bagaimana Mengukur Nilai
HASIL
Investasi Cost of Capital EVA
(NOPAT)
NOI 20
interest 2
EBT 18
Tax 30% 5.4 Int
EAT 12.6
Div PS 2.6
EAT CS 10.0
EPS 1.125
NOI ( EBIT)
NOI 20
interest 2
EBT 18
Tax 30% 5.4
EAT 12.6 Tax
Div PS 2.6
EAT CS 10.0
EPS 1.125
NOI ( EBIT)
NOI 20 EAT CS
interest 2
EBT 18
Tax 30% 5.4 Div PS
Int
EAT 12.6
Div PS 2.6 Tax
EAT CS 10.0
EPS 1.125
17
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ( DCF )
0 1 2 3 4 5
$20,000
$9,943.53
(1.15) 5
18
19
Perpetuity
A constant stream of cash flows that lasts
forever
C C C
0 1 2 3
C C C
PV 2
3
(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )
C PV = ) WACC = r
PV
r
20
Growing Perpetuity
C C×(1+g) C ×(1+g)2
…
0 1 2 3
2
C C (1 g ) C (1 g )
PV 2
3
(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )
C
PV
rg
20
21
Growing Perpetuity: Example
The expected dividend next year is $1.30, and
dividends are expected to grow at 5% forever.
If the discount rate is 10%, what is the value of
this promised dividend stream?
1 2 3
$1.30
PV $26.00
.10 .05
21
22
Net Present Value
• The Net Present Value (NPV) of an investment is the
present value of the expected cash flows, less the cost of
the investment. NPV = –Cost + PV
• Suppose an investment that promises to pay $10,000 in
one year is offered for sale for $9,500. Your interest
rate is 5%. Should you buy?
$10,000
NPV $9,500
1.05
NPV $9,500 $9,523.81
NPV $23.81
22
23
Future Value
• The general formula for the future value of
an investment over many periods can be
written as:
FV = C0×(1 + r)n
Where
C0 is cash flow at date 0,
r is the appropriate interest rate, and
n is the number of periods over which the cash is
invested.
23
24
Future Value and Compounding
$1.10 (1.40) 5
$1.10 (1.40) 4
$1.10 (1.40) 3
$1.10 (1.40) 2
$1.10 (1.40)
0 1 2 3 4 5 24
Compounding Periods
25
25
26
Continuous Compounding
• The general formula for the future value of
an investment compounded continuously over
many periods can be written as:
FV = C0×ern
Where
C0 is cash flow at date 0,
r is the stated annual interest rate,
n is the number of years, and
e is a transcendental number approximately
equal to 2.718. ex is a key on your
calculator.
26
27
Effective Annual Rates of Interest (EAR)
27
Effective Annual Rates of Interest
28
(EAR)
• Find the Effective Annual Rate (EAR) of an
18% APR loan that is compounded monthly.
• What we have is a loan with a monthly interest
rate rate of 1½%.
• This is equivalent to a loan with an annual
interest rate of 19.56%.
m 12
r .18 12
1 1 (1.015) 1.1956
m 12
28
29
Annuity
A constant stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity
C C C C
1 2 3 n
C C C C
PV 2
3
(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) n
C 1
PV 1
r (1 r ) n
29
30
Annuity: Example 1
If you can afford a $400 monthly car payment, how
much car can you afford if interest rates are 7% on
36-month loans?
$400 $400 $400 $400
0 1 2 3 36
$400 1
PV 1 36
$12,954.59
.07 / 12 (1 .07 12)
30
31
31 ANNUITY: EXAMPLE 2
What is the present value of a four-year annuity of $100 per
year that makes its first payment two years from today if the
discount rate is 9%?
4
$100 $100 $100 $100 $100
PV1 t
1
2
3
4
$323.97
t 1 (1.09) (1.09) (1.09) (1.09) (1.09)
$323.97
PV $297.22
0 1.09
0 1 2 3 4 5
32
32
GROWING ANNUITY
A growing stream of cash flows with a fixed maturity
C C×(1+g) C ×(1+g)2 C×(1+g)T-1
0 1 2 3 T
C C (1 g ) C (1 g )T 1
PV 2
T
(1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )
C 1 g
T
PV 1
r g (1 r )
33 GROWING ANNUITY: EXAMPLE
A defined-benefit retirement plan offers to pay $20,000 per
year for 40 years and increase the annual payment by 3% each
year. What is the present value at retirement if the discount
rate is 10%?
$20,000 $20,000×(1.03) $20,000×(1.03)39
1 2 40
$20,000 1.03
40
PV 1 $265,121.57
.10 .03 1.10
34
COST OF CAPITAL
COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL
35
35
Cov ( Ri , RM ) σ i , M
3. The company βi 2
beta, Var ( RM ) σM
RISK: SYSTEMATIC AND
36
UNSYSTEMATIC
36
2
R R U
Total risk
becomes
R Rmε
where
Nonsystematic
Risk: m is the systematic risk
Systematic Risk: m ε is the unsystematic risk
n
PORTFOLIO RISK AND NUMBER
37
OF STOCKS
37
Long-term Exposure
Long-run fluctuations come from unanticipated
changes in relative economic conditions
Could be due to changes in labor markets or
governments
More difficult to hedge
Try to match long-run inflows and outflows in the
currency
Borrowing in the foreign country may mitigate
some of the problems
42
42
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL –CAPM
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
3 20% (1(.110
.10
) )(.95(.)95
(1).
20()1.20 ) ) (11.15) 1
(1.15
4 15% .4421
.4421 44
.44
21%
.21%
44 GEOMETRIC RETURN: EXAMPLE
Year Return
R1 R2 R3 R4
1 10% Arithmetic average return
4
2 -5%
3 20% 10% 5% 20% 15%
10%
4 15% 4
46
46
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
R D 1
g
P
• The DDM is an alternative to the CAPM
for calculating a firm’s cost of equity.
• The DDM and CAPM are internally consistent,
but academics generally favor the CAPM and
companies seem to use the CAPM more
consistently.
– This may be due to the measurement error
associated with estimating company growth.
COST OF DEBT
47
47
= 3% + 0.82×8.4%
= 9.89%
EXAMPLE OF CALCULATING WACC
51
51
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