Incorporation of demand

forecasting for mitigating

bullwhip effect in Supply
Chain

Rishi Tilawat
Urjil Pandya
Samarth Karelia
Anikesh Shende
Shudhanshu Gupta
Introduction • During Covid-19 the world saw an increase in demand in
everyday products effecting the demand supply ratio.
• This sudden increase in the demands and low supply
gave rise to a Bullwhip effect
• Bullwhip effect is nothing but a small increase in
demand which causes a huge fluctuation in demands at
manufacturing, retail and supply.
Objectives
• To reduce Bullwhip effect
• Reduce reactivity at consumer end
• Decrease ripple effect at ends of supply chain
Methods
• Bull Whip effect analysis
• Demand forecast updating
• Order batching
• Maintaining manufacturer and supplier levels
• Forecast wholesaler demands using exponential
smoothing model
• Forecast retail demands using regression models
• Forecast manufacture demands using neural networks
• Forecast supplier demand using moving average method
• Rationing and shortage gaming
Data
• Data to be collected from stores: (case studies)
• Eg: Toilet paper demands during Covid-19

Collection • Graphical comparison of various case studies to be done

using analytical tools like Python

& Analysis
• Perform data analysis
References
• https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ddns/2022/2720244/