STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT

Presentation

By

Prof. (Dr.) T. Muthukumar

M.Sc; MCA; MBA; PhD.
Professor – Business Analytics
XIME-Bangalore
PROBABILITY
 BASIC TERMINOLOGY
 TYPES OF PROBABILITY
 PROBABILITY RULES
 INDEPENDENCE / DEPENDENCE
PROBABILITY
 BAYES THEOREM
 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

2
PROBABILITY
 BASIC TERMINALOGY
• Definition :
1. Probability: “The Probability of a given
event is an expression of likelihood or
chance of occurrence of an event.”
2. Event: “One of the possible outcomes of an
experiment”

3
PROBABILITY
3. Experiment: “A process that results in an
event”
4. Sample Space: “The sample space is a set of
all possible outcomes of an experiment”
• Ex.1: If we toss a coin, the sample space is
S = {head, tail}
• Ex.2: If we toss an unbaised die, the sample
space is S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

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PROBABILITY
5. Mutually Exclusive Events: “Two or more
events that cannot occur together”
• “Events are said to be mutually exclusive if
one and only one of them can take place at a
time”

5
PROBABILITY
• Types of Probability
1. Classical Approach
2. Relative Frequency Approach
3. Subjective Approach

6
PROBABILITY
• Classical Approach (or) Priori Probability:

• “It is the ratio of the number of favourable

cases to the total number of equally likely
cases” (ie)
• P(A) = (Number of favourable cases) / (Total
No of equally likely cases)

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PROBABILITY
• Ex.1: If a coin is tossed, there are two
equally likely results, a head or a tail.
Probability of head = ½

• Ex.2: If a dice is thrown,

Probability of obtaining an even
number = 3/6 = 1/2.

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PROBABILITY
 Probability Rules
1. P(A)= Number of favorable cases / Total
number of equally likely cases
2. 0 <= P(A) <= 1
3. P(S) = 1
4. Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive
Events: Probability of Either A or B
happening
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
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PROBABILITY
5. Addition Rule for Events that are not
Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A^B)

6. P(A’) = 1 – P(A)

 Ex.1: One card is drawn from a standard

pack of 52. What is the probability that it is
either a king or a queen ?
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PROBABILITY
 Ans.1: There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a
pack of 52 cards.
• The probability that card drawn is a king
P(A) = 4/52
• The probability that card drawn is a queen
P(B)=4/52
• Since the events are mutually exclusive, the
probability that the card drawn is either a
king or queen is
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PROBABILITY
P(A or B) = P(AUB)
= P(A) + P(B)
= 4 / 52 + 4 / 52
= 8 / 52
= 2 / 13

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.2: Five equally capable students are
waiting for a summer job interview with a
company that has announced that it will hire
only one of the five by random drawing. The
group consist of Bill, Helen, John, Sally and
Walter. (i) What is the probability that John
will be the candidate? (ii) What is the
probability that either John or Sally will be
the candidate?

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PROBABILITY
 Ans.2: (i) P(John) = P(A) = 1/5
 (ii) P(John or Sally)
 = P(John) + P(Sally)
= P(A) + P(B)
= 1/5 + 1/5 = 2/5 = 0.4
Ex.3: The following table contains data on the
sizes of families in a certain town. What is the
probability that a family chosen at a random
from this town will have four or more
children?
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PROBABILITY
 --------------------------------------------------------
No. Child. Pro. of fam. Hav. many children
-----------------------------------------------------------
0 0.05
1 0.10
2 0.30
3 0.25
4 0.15
5 0.10
6 or more 0.05
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PROBABILITY
 Ans.3: P (4 , 5, 6 or more)
 = P(4) + P(5) + P(6 or more)
= 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.05
= 0.30
• Ex.4: Suppose we have a box with 3 red, 2
black and 5 white balls. Each time a ball is
drawn, it is returned to the box. What is the
probability of drawing (i) either a red or a
black or white ball? (ii) either a white or a
black ball?
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PROBABILITY
• Ans.4: The Probability of drawing a red ball
P(A) = 3/10 = 0.3
• The Probability of drawing a black ball =
P(B) = 2/10 =0.2
• The probability of drawing a white ball =
P(C) = 5/10 = 0.5

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PROBABILITY
• (i) P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
= 3/10 + 2/10 + 5/10
= 10/10 = 1.0
• (ii) P(white) + P(black) = P(C) + P(B)
• = 5/10 + 2/10 = 0.7
 Ex.5: There are 20, 30 and 50 heavy smokers,
moderate smokers and non-smokers,
respectively. Construct a frequency table and
illustrate the three rules of probability.
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PROBABILITY
 ---------------------------------------------------
Class Frequency R. frequency
--------------------------------------------------
Heavy(H) 20 0.2
Moderate(M) 30 0.3
Non-smokers(N) 50 0.5
---------------------------------------------------

Total 100 1.0

---------------------------------------------------
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 PROBABILITY
Ans.5: Rule.1
P(H) = 0.2 > 0
P(M) = 0.3 > 0
P(N) = 0.5 >0
Rule.2: P(H) + P(M) + P(N)
= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.5 = 1.0
Rule.3: P(H) or P(M) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5
P(H) or P(N) = 0.2 + 0.5 = 0.7
P(M) or P(N) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8
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PROBABILITY
 Ex.6: An educational institution has offered
admission to 100 students. On an average,
the institution found 20 students secure
grade A, 25 Students grade B, 20 Students
grade C and 35 students grade D. What is
the probability of selecting a student who
has (i) either grade A or B and (ii) either
grade C or D?

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PROBABILITY
• Ans:Here, P(A) = 20 / 100 = 0.2
• P(B) = 25 / 100 = 0.25
• P(C) = 20 / 100 = 0.2
• P(D) = 35 / 100 = 0.35
 Ans: (i) Since, they are mutually exclusive
events, P (Grade A or Grade B)
 = P(A) + P(B) = 0.2 + 0.25 = 0.45
 (ii) P (Grade C or Grade D)
 = P(C) + P(D)
= 0.2 + 0.35 = 0.55
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PROBABILITY
 Addition Rule for Events that are Not Mutually
Exclusive:
 Ex.1: One card is drawn from a standard pack
of 52. What is the probability of drawing either
a king or a heart from a standard pack of
cards?
 Ans.1: Here, It is obvious that the events king
and heart can occur together as we can drawn
a king of hearts ( since king and heart are not
mutually exclusive events).
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PROBABILITY
• Therefore, P(king) = P(A) = 4/52
• P(heart) = P(B) = 13/52
• P(king and heart) = P(A^B) = 1/52
• P(king or heart) = P(AUB)
• = P(A) + P(B) – P(A^B)
• = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
• = 16/52
• = 4/13
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PROBABILITY
 Ex.2: The Managing Committee of Vaishalli
Association formed a sub-committee of 5
person to look into electricity problem.
Profiles of the 5 persons are :
1. Male age 40
2. Male age 43
3. Female age 38
4. Female age 27
5. Male age 65
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PROBABILITY
• If a chairperson has to be selected from this, what is
the probability that he would be either female or
over 30 years?
 Ans.2: Here, P (female) = P(A) = 2/5
 P (over30) = P(B) = 4/5
• P (female and over 30) = P(A^B) = 1/5
• Therefore, P (female or over30) = P(AUB)
• = P(A) + P(B) - P(A^B)
• = 2/5 + 4/5 – 1/5
• = 5/5 = 1
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PROBABILITY
 Ex.3: A bag contain 30 balls numbered from
1 to 30. One ball is drawn at random. Find
the probability that the number of the ball
drawn will be a multiple of (i) 5 or 7 and (ii)
3 or 7.
• Ans.3:The probability of the number being
multiple of 5 is P(A) = P (5, 10, 15, 20,
25,30)
• = 6/30
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PROBABILITY
• The probability of the number being multiple
of 7 is P(B) = P (7, 14, 21, 28)
• = 4/30
• Therefore, the events are mutually exclusive
the probability of the number being a
multiple of 5 or 7 will be
• P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
• = 6/30 + 4/30
• = 10 / 30 = 1/3
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PROBABILITY
 (ii) The probability of the number being
multiple of 3 is
 P(A) = P(3,6,9,12,15,18,21,24,27,30) = 10/30
• The probability of the number being
multiple of 7 is
• P(B) = P(7,14,21,28) = 4/30
• The probability of 3 as well as 7 is
• P(A^B) = P(21) = 1/30

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PROBABILITY
• The probability of getting a number which is
multiple of 3 or 7 is
• P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A^B)
• = 10/30 + 4/30 - 1/30 = 13/30
• Ex.4: X is a registered contractor with the
government. Recently, X has submitted his
tender for two contracts, A and B. The
probability of getting the contract A is ¼, the
contract B is ½ and both contracts A and B is
1/8. Find the probability that X will get contract
A or B.
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PROBABILITY
• Ans.4: Here, P(A) = ¼ , P(B) = ½
P(A^B) = 1/8
• As getting contract A and contract B are
mutually non-exclusive events, the required
probability will be:
• P(A or B) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A^B)
= ¼ + ½ - 1/8
= 5/8 = 0.625

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.5: A business firm has invited applications for
a managerial post. The probability that an
applicant has a postgraduate qualification is 0.3
and that he has adequate work experience is 0.7,
and that he has both the postgraduate
qualification and work experience is 0.4.
Assuming that 50 persons have applied for this
managerial post in the company, find out how
many applicants would have either a postgraduate
degree or adequate work experience.

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PROBABILITY
 Ans.5: Here, P (the event that an applicant
has the postgraduate degree) = P(A) = 0.3
• P (the event that an applicant has adequate
work experience) = P(B) = 0.7
• and P(A^B) = 0.4
• Here, A and B are mutually non-exclusive
events,
• P(A or B) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A^B)
= 0.3 + 0.7 – 0.4 = 0.6
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PROBABILITY
• Since the number of applicants is 50 the
number of applicants having postgraduate
qualification or adequate work experience
is 0.6 * 50 = 30

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PROBABILITY
 Probabilities under Conditions of Statistical
Independence

• Statistical Independence: “The occurrence

of one event has no effect on the probability
of the occurrence of any other event”

• “Independent event: No event is affected by

the events preceding or following it”
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PROBABILITY
• There are three types of probabilities under
statistical independence:
1. Marginal Probability or P(A)
2. Joint Probability or P(AB)
3. Conditional Probability or P(B/A)

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PROBABILITY
• Joint Probabilities under Statistical
Independence

• Multiplication Theorem: “If two events A

and B are independent, the probability that
they both will occur is equal to the product
of their individual probability”

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PROBABILITY
• That is, if A and B are independent, then
P(A and B) = P(AB) = P(A) * P(B)
• Where, P(AB) = probability of events A and
B occurring together
• P(A) = Marginal probability of event A
occurring
• P(B) = Marginal probability of event B
occurring

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.1: What is the probability of getting two
successive heads, if we toss a fair coin twice?
• Ans: P(H1H2) = P(H1) * P(H2)
• = 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25
• Ex.2: What is the probability of getting tails,
heads, tails in that order on three successive
tosses of a fair coin?
• Ans. P(T1H2T3) = P(T1)*P(H2)*P(T3)
• = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.125
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 PROBABILITY
 Ex.3: What is the probability of getting at least
two tails on three successive tosses of a fair
coin?
• Ans: The sample space of three successive
tosses of a fair coin = {HHH, HHT, HTH,
HTT, TTT, TTH, THT, THH}
• Hence, the probability of getting at least two
tails is
• = P(HTT) + P(TTT) + P(TTH) + P(THT)
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PROBABILITY
• ={P(H) * P(T) * P(T)} + {P(T) * P(T) * P(T)}
+ {P(T) * P(T) * P(H)} + P(T) * P(H) * P(T)}
• = {0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5} + {0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5} + {0.5 *
• 0.5 * 0.5} + {0.5 * 0.5 *0.5}
• = 0.125 + 0.125 + 0.125 + 0.125 = 0.5
• Ex.4: What is the probability of at least one
tail on three tosses?
• Ans: There is only one case in which no tails
occur, namely {HHH}.
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PROBABILITY
• Therefore, the probability of at least one tail
occurring in three successive tosses is
• = 1.0 – P(HHH)
• = 1.0 – {P(H) * P(H) * P(H)}
• = 1.0 – {0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5}
• = 1.0 – 0.125
• = 0.875

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PROBABILITY

 Ex.5: What is the probability of at least one head on

two tosses?
• Ans. The sample space of two tosses of a fair coin is
• S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
• Hence, the probability of at least one head on two
tosses is = P(HH) + P(HT) + P(TH)
• = {P(H) * P(H)} + {P(H)*P(T)}+{P(T)*P(H)}
• = {0.5 * 0.5} + {0.5 * 0.5} + {0.5 * 0.5}
• = {0.25}+{0.25}+{0.25} = 0.75 (OR)

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PROBABILITY
• The probability of at least one head on two
tosses is
• = 1.0 – P(TT)
• = 1.0 – {P(T) * P(T)}
• = 1.0 – {0.5 * 0.5}
• = 1.0 – 0.25
• = 0.75

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.6: A man wants to marry a girl having
qualities: white complexion – the probability
of getting such a girl is one in twenty;
handsome dowry – the probability of getting
this is one in fifty; westernised manners –
the probability here is one in hundred. Find
out the probability of his getting married to
such a girl when the possession of these
three attributes is independent.

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PROBABILITY
 Ans.6: The probability of girl with white
complexion
 P(A) = 1/20 = 0.05
• The probability of a girl with handsome
dowry
• P(B) = 1/50 = 0.02
• The probability of a girl with westernised
manners
• P(C) = 1/100 = 0.01
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PROBABILITY
• Since the events are independent, the
probability of simultaneous occurrence of all
these qualities
• P (ABC) = P(A) * P(B) * P(C)
• = 0.05 * 0.02 * 0.01
• = 0.00001

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.7: A problem in statistics is given to five
students A, B, C, D and E. Their chances of
solving it are ½, 1/3, ¼, 1/5 and 1/6. What is
the probability that the problem will be
solved?
• Ans. The Prob. that A fails to solve the
problem is
P(A’) = 1.0 – P(A) = 1.0 – ½ = ½

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PROBABILITY
• The Prob. that B fails to solve the problem is

P(B’) = 1.0 – P(B) = 1.0 – 1/3 = 2/3

• The Prob. that C fails to solve the problem is
P(C’) = 1.0 – P(C) = 1.0 – ¼ = ¾
• The Prob. that D fails to solve the problem is
P(D’) = 1.0 – P(D) = 1.0 – 1/5 = 4/5
• The Prob. that E fails to solve the problem is
P(E’) = 1.0 – P(E) = 1.0 – 1/6 = 5/6
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PROBABILITY
• Since the events are independent the
probability that all the five students fail to
solve the problem is
• P(A’B’C’D’E’) = P(A’) * P(B’) * P(C’) *
• P(D’) * P(E’)
• = ½ * 2/3 * ¾ * 4/5 * 5/6
• = 1/6
• Therefore, the probability that the problem
will be solved = 1.0 – 1/6 = 5/6
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PROBABILITY
 Probabilities under Conditions of Statistical
Dependence
• “Dependent events : When the occurrence of
one event affects the probability of the
occurrence of the other, then the two events
are said to be dependent events”

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PROBABILITY
 The types of probabilities under statistical
dependence are
1. Conditional : P(A/B) = P(AB) / P(B)
2. Joint : P(AB) = P(A/B) * P(B)
3. Marginal : P(A) = n(A) / n(S)
• Conditional Probabilities under Statistical
Dependence
• The formula: P(A/B) = P(AB) / P(B) (or)
• P(B/A) = P(BA) / P(A)
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PROBABILITY
• Ex.1: A bag contains 5 white and 3 black
balls. Two balls are drawn at random one
after the other without replacement. Find the
probability that both balls drawn are black.
• Ans.1: Probability of drawing a black ball in
the first attempt is P(A) = 3 / (5 + 3) = 3/8
• Prob. Of drawing the second black ball given
that the first ball drawn is black P(B/A) = 2 /
(5 + 2) = 2/7
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PROBABILITY
 Ex.2: Find the probability of drawing a
queen, a king and a knave in that order
from a pack of cards in three consecutive
draws, the cards drawn not being replaced.
• Ans. The probability of drawing a queen =
4/52
• The probability of drawing a king after a
queen has been drawn = 4/51

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PROBABILITY
• The probability of drawing a knave given
that a queen and king have been drawn =
4/50
• Since they are dependent events, the
required probability of the compound event
is
• = 4/52 * 4/51 * 4/50
• = 64 / 132600 = 0.00048

55
PROBABILITY
 Ex.3: Suppose we have an urn containing
ten balls of different colours such that
2 balls are red and dotted
1 ball is green and dotted
4 balls are red and striped
3 balls are green and striped
• (i) What is the probability of drawing any
particular ball from this urn?

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PROBABILITY
• (ii) What is the prob. that it is striped, When
we draw a ball from the urn and find it is
red ?
• (iii) What is the probability of getting a
dotted ball given that it is green?
• Ans.3: (i) In all there are ten balls, each with
equal probability of being drawn.
• Hence, the probability of drawing any
particular ball from this urn is = 1/10 = 0.1

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PROBABILITY
• Event Prob. Of Event Col.&Pattern
• 1 0.1 Red and dotted
• 2 0.1 Red and dotted
• 3 0.1 Green and dotted
• 4 0.1 Red and Striped
• 5 0.1 Red and Striped
• 6 0.1 Red and Striped

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PROBABILITY
• 7 0.1 Red and striped
• 8 0.1 Green and striped
• 9 0.1 Green and striped
• 10 0.1 Green and striped

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PROBABILITY
• (ii) Here, there are six red balls of which two
are dotted and four are striped.
• Therefore, the prob. of striped red ball is
• P(S/R) = P(SR) / P(R)
• = (4/10) / (6/10) = 4/6 = .3333
• (iii) The probability of the ball being dotted
given that it is green
• P(D/G) = P(DG) / P(G) = (1/10) / (4/10)
• = ¼ = 0.25
60
PROBABILITY

61
PROBABILITY
• Ex.1: A manufacturing firm is engaged in the
production of steel pipes in its three plants
with a daily production of 1000, 1500 and
2500 units respectively. According to the past
experience, it is known that the fractions of
defective pipes produced by the three plants
are respectively 0.04, 0.09 and 0.07. If a pipe
is selected from a day’s total production and
found to be defective, find out

62
PROBABILITY
• (i) from which plant the defective pipe has
come, and (ii) what is the probability that it
has come from the second plant?
• Ans. Prob. That a pipe is manufactured in
plant A is P(E1) = 1000 / 5000 = 0.2
• Prob. that a pipe is manufactured in plant B
is P(E2) = 1500 / 5000 = 0.3
• Prob. that a pipe is manufactured in plant C
is P(E3) = 2500 / 5000 =0.5

63
PROBABILITY
• Let P(D) be the probability that a defective
pipe is drawn.
• Therefore the conditional probabilities are
• P (D/E1) = 0.04,
• P (D/E2) = 0.09
• P (D/E3) = 0.07
• The defective prob. in plant A is P(E1/D) =
(P(D/E1) * P(E1)) / ((P(D/E1) * P(E1)) +
(P(D/E2) * P(E2)) + (P(D/E3) * P(E3)))
64
PROBABILITY
• = (0.04 * 0.2) / ((0.04 * 0.2) + (0.09 * 0.3) +
• (0.07 * 0.5))
• = (0.008) / ((0.008) + (0.027) + (0.035))=0.114
• The defective probability in plant B is P(E2/D)
= (P(D/E2) * P(E2)) / ((P(D/E1) * P(E1)) +
(P(D/E2) * P(E2)) + (P(D/E3) * P(E3)))
• = (0.09 * 0.3) / ((0.04 * 0.2) + (0.09 * 0.3) +
• (0.07 * 0.5))
• = (0.027) / ((0.008) + (0.027) + (0.035))=0.386
65
PROBABILITY
• The defective probability in plant C is
P(E3/D) = (P(D/E3) * P(E3)) / ((P(D/E1) *
• P(E1)) + (P(D/E2) * P(E2)) +
• (P(D/E3) * P(E3)))
• = 0.07 * 0.5) / ((0.04 * 0.2) + (0.09 *
• 0.3) + (0.07 * 0.5))
• = (0.035) / ((0.008) + (0.027) + (0.035)) = 0.5

66
PROBABILITY
• (a) Probability of most defective pipe has
come from plant C.
• (b) The probability that the defective pipe
has come from the second plant is 0.39

67
PROBABILITY
• Ex.2: If a machine is set up correctly it
produces 90 per cent good items; it it is
incorrectly set up then it produces 10 per
cent good items. Chances for a setting to be
correct and incorrect are in the ratio of 7:3.
After a setting is made, the first two items
produced are found to be good items. What
is the chance that the setting was correct?

68
PROBABILITY
• Ans. Let Prob. of event that the machine is
set of correctly is P(E1) = 0.7
• Let Prob. of event that the machine is set of
incorrectly is P(E2) = 0.3
 Let E be the event that the first two items
are good, then,
 P(E/E1) = 0.9
 P(E/E2) = 0.1

69
PROBABILITY
• Hence, the probability that the setting was
correct
• P(E1/E) = (P(E/E1) * P(E1)) / (P(E/E1) *
• P(E1) + P(E/E2) * P(E2))
• = (0.9) * (0.7) / ((0.9 * 0.7) + (0.1 * 0.3))
• = (0.63) / (0.63 + 0.03) = 0.63 / 0.66 = 0.95
• Hence, Prob. that the setting of the machine
was correct is 0.95

70
PROBABILITY
 Ex.3: A company uses a ‘selling aptitude test’
in the selection of salesmen. Past experience
has shown that only 70% of all persons
applying for a sales position achieved a
classification “dissatisfactory” in actual
selling, whereas the remainder were
classified as “satisfactory”, 85% had scored
a passing grade on the aptitude test. Only
25% of those classified unsatisfactory, had
passed the test on the basis of this
information.
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PROBABILITY
 What is the prob. that a candidate would be
a satisfactory salesman given that he passed
the aptitude test?
 Ans. If S stands for a ‘satisfactory’
classification as a salesman and P stands for
‘passing the test’.
• Hence, the Prob. that a candidate would be
“satisfactory” salesman given that he passed
the aptitude test is
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PROBABILITY
• P(S/P) = P(P/S) * P(P) / (P(P/S) * P(P) +
• P(P/D) * P(D))
• = (0.70 * 0.85) / ((0.70 * 0.85) + (0.30 *
• 0.25))
• = 0.595 / (0.595 + 0.075)
• = 0.888

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PROBABILITY
 Ex.4: A manufacturing firm produces units
of a product in four plants. Define event Ai :
a unit is produced in plant I, i= 1,2,3,4 and
event B: a unit is defective. From the past
records of the proportions of defectives
produced at each plant the following
conditional probabilities are set:
P(B/A1)=0.05, P(B/A2)=0.10, P(B/A3)=0.15,
P(B/A4)=0.02.

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PROBABILITY
 The first plant produced 30% of the units of
the product, the second plant 25%, third
plant 40% and the fourth plant 5%. A unit
of the product made at one of these plants is
tested and is found to be defective. What is
the probability that the unit was produced
in plant 3?
• Ans. Here, P(A1) = 0.30, P(A2) = 0.25,
• P(A3) = 0.40, P(A4) = 0.05
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PROBABILITY
• Hence, The prob. That the unit was
produced in plant 3 is
 P(A3/B) = (P(B/A3) * P(A3)) / ((P(B/A1) *
 P(A1)) + (P(B/A2) * P(A2)) +
 (P(B/A3) * P(A3)) + (P(B/A4) *
 P(A4)))
• = (0.15 * 0.40) / ((0.05 * 0.30) + (0.10 * 0.25)
• + (0.15 * 0.40) + (0.02 * 0.05)) = 0.5941
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PROBABILITY
 Ex.5: Two bags contains 1 white, 6 red and 4
white, 3 red balls. One of the bag is selected
at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find
(i) the probability of drawing a white ball
(ii) the probability of drawing the ball from
the first bag, if the ball drawn is white.
• Ans. Let E1, E2 be the events of drawing
first bag and second bag.
• Then, P(E1) = 1/2, P(E2) = 1/2
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PROBABILITY
• Let A be the event of drawing a white ball. Then,
 P(White ball is drawn from first bag) = P(A/E1) =
1/7
• P(White ball is drawn from second bag) =
P(A/E2) = 4/7
• (i) P(A) = P(E1/A or E2/A)
• = P(E1/A) + P(E2/A)
• =P(E1) * P(A/E1) + P(E2) * P(A/E2)
• = ½ * 1/7 + ½* 4/7 = 5/14

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PROBABILITY
• (ii) P(E1/A) = (P(E1) * P(A/E1)) / P(A)
• = (½ * 1/7) / (5/14)
• = 1/5

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PROBABILITY
• Ex.6: Bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls
and a bag B contains 4 white and 5 red balls.
One ball is drawn at random from one of the
bags and found to be red. Find the probability
that it was drawn from bag B.
• Ans. Let E1, E2 be the event of drawing bag A
and bag B. Then,
• P(E1) = ½ , P(E2) = ½
• Let C be the event of drawing a red ball. Then,

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PROBABILITY
 P(Red ball is drawn from bag A) = P(C/E1)
= 3/5
• P(Red ball is drawn from bag B) = P(C/E2)
= 5/9
• P(E2/C) = P(E2) * P(C/E2) / (P(E1) *
• P(C/E1) + P(E2) * P(C/E2))
• = ( ½ * 5/9) / ( ½ * 3/5 + ½ * 5/9)
• = 5/18 / ( 3/10 + 5/18) = 25/52

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