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Nextel - 3G Meeting Gokul July2012 - v14
Nextel - 3G Meeting Gokul July2012 - v14
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
2
Agenda
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
3
The 3G coverage plan has changed over time.
2012 2013
Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez Jan Fev Mar Abr Maio Jun Jul Dez
Launch Timeline
“Oliver Plan”
(April/11)
R1.0 = 159 cities (SP R2.0 = 120 cities (RJ metro R4.0 = 699 cities (Full SP and RJ)
State) DF and GO State) Full South region and MG)
Extended coverage
RJ, DF and GO
“60% Plan” 47 cities
(September/11) 17 21 36 48 11 cities
R1.0 = 26 cities (SP R2.0 = 24 cities (RJ R4.0 = 659 cities (Full SP and RJ)
metro) metro) Full South region and MG)
Note: Not showing regulatory marks due on every June from 2012 till 2017. Eg.: R3.0 Regulatory mark. 4
The current plan foresees over 690 cities with 3G coverage by the end
of 2013.
Coverage plan under review
Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
# of cities with
commercial coverage
(>80% of Area Code 14 35 47 98 146 157 180 181 185 189 189 190 694
covered)
% GDP covered (Brazil) 18% 21% 22% 26% 27% 27% 35% 39% 39% 39% 39% 40% 61%
5
Agenda
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
6
3G Competitive scenario & Nextel strategy
Scenario Strategy
7
7
Nextel’s differentiated positioning on mobile internet.
vs. +
Focus on sales as a substitute of fixed Mobile internet
broadband, where there no other access as a complementary of fixed broadband
8
Guidelines for smartphone and data card offerings.
• Due to Bill&Keep, voice only customers • Initial target: current customers who
Strategy will not be incentivated to migrate from own a fixed broadband and will use
iDEN to 3G (no subsidy for 3G Nextel Internet as complementary
smartphones with voice only plan) usage for mobility.
• Data centric plans: bundled with Link • Data priced in flat tiers (e.g. Small,
Data & Voice allowances Medium, Large)
Rate Plans • Premium price over competitors but • Plans with throttling - no bill shock
with higher allowances of voice and • Bundle of handsets and data cards to
data sell it to our current customers
9
To simplify customer’s choice, data card rate plans will be
communicated in flat tiers with benefits of “use at will” and “no bill
shock”
Maximum speed
Usage during bucket Mechanic
consumption
S Occasional
Throttling to
128Kbps after
bucket allowance
M Medium 1,5Mbps (customer is
advised by SMS
and interception
screen)
L High
10
Nextel will also innovate with a multi-device data rate plan – Data
Pooling.
3GB
shared
*
OR OR
Main Device
Smartphone with
pooling plan Device 3
OR OR
Device 2
*Data bucket not defined
11
Pooling expected to launch in April/13
Agenda
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
12
Nextel 3G devices
Iron Rock
Ultra • Android 2.3
High tier • 4.3” full touch
• Dual camp iDEN+3G
• Cost USD 415
Datacard E303
Datacard • Low tier datacard
• HSPA
• Cost USD 42
(cheapest model)
Subsidy: ~R$300
14
3G premium positioning and competitive scenario result in higher
unit subsidy than in iDEN.
Average unit handset subsidy for Gross Adds, R$ with taxes
61
Avg subsidy
50 183 for 3G:
36% of cost
Avg subsidy 40
for iDEN:
19% of cost 32
iDEN 2012 SIM cards Avg Subsidy Smartphone mix 3G 2013 subsidy
subsidy
• Lower participation of SIM cards • Competitors agressive on subsidies • % of smartphone in gross adds
in total sales mix : for high-value postpaid / corporate of devices:
iDEN 52% customers iDEN: 25%
3G 10% • HPPTT device costs are 16% higher 3G:75%
than iDEN, on average
• Lack of existent HPPTT device
base • Final selling prices 5% higher for 3G
• Additionally, 3G plan considers 90% subsidy on datacards (net cost: USD42 ), to align with market practice
• Small scale
• Unique Technology
• On demand products
16
Lower SIM card only
• Voice only customers will be directed to iden network (bill and keep)
17
Iden x 3G device cost
• Ultra High Iden x Ultra High 3G x Ultra High competitors (Retali price)
• Validar valores
18
Agenda
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
19
Cases of 4th and 5th mobile entrants in highly penetrated countries
suggest an adjusted market share(1) of 4.5 to 6.0% in the first year.
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
Market share of mobile lines
Oi SP (BRA)
5.0%
4.0%
(1) Market share of lines, calculated over an adjusted addressable market considering typical start-up coverage limitations in year 1
Source: Company reports, news clippings, Merrill Lynch, Accenture analysis 20
Further analysis reveal a mix of strategies and business models
adopted by the selected entrants.
Operator SP
(Hutchison) (TeliaSonera)
Country UK (& other European) Brazil, SP state Spain Russia Poland
Date of launch Mar.03 Oct.08 Dec.06 2001 (acquisition) Mar.07
Mobile density
91% 84% 108% 12% 109%
as of launch
Share(1) in 12 <1% (brownfield
2.4% 5% postpaid 0.9% 2.6%
months operation)
Share(1) after _
7%, 7 years 8% postpaid, 3 years 4%, 5 years 7%, 7 years 14%, 5 years
years
Strategy & • Initially pursued a • Low ARPU (R$20), • Low price strategy, • Low ARPU (22% • Low ARPU (20%
development premium strategy focus on prepaid tariff simplification below market) below market)
based on the 3G first- • Aggressive launch • Not very big in scale, • “No-frills”, voice- • Initial focus on youth
mover advantage promotion but business model centric operator to be market
• Offer services such as • Initially succesful, then designed to be low- attractive as a 2nd or • Innovative
video calling, mobile could not keep growth cost (relies heavily on 3rd SIM card provider promotions (e.g. rent-
video and mobile pace online channels and • Benefited from strong a-smartphone)
content • Financial pressures full operations overall market growth • Business model
• As competitors following major outsourcing) • Growth through sustainable because
launched 3G, Three’s acquisition and • Achieved positive geographic regulator allowed for
ARPU fell to market unsuccesful go-to- EBITDA 4 years after expansion (organic & an ITX cost
average market strategy launch inorganic) advantage until 2013
• Three started to chase caused loss of • Mature regions help
profitability to achieve momentum fund growth in new
break-even, thus regions
reducing growth rates
Source: Company reports, Anatel, Teleco, Pyramid Research, Frost&Sullivan, OECD, Merrill Lynch, Accenture analysis. Note: (1) market share over total mobile base 21
Key conclusions – mobile entrant strategies.
• The more succesful new entrants / challengers which pursued a low-price positioning achieved
fundamental business model cost advantages to achieve profitability over the long term (e.g.
interconnect cost, online channels, leverage partners/outsourcing)
• These low-price entrants have sustained their pace of growth over the years by sticking to their core
positioning/strategy and investing in coverage and geographic market expansion (through spectrum
and/or small acquisitions)
• The two less succesful entrants (Hutchison 3 and Oi SP) have some aspects in common:
• Encouraging success in the first year, achieving higher than average market shares
• in the case of Three, lower than expected success of “killer” content/video applications
and competition catch-up on 3G offerings
• in the case of Oi, the “no handsets” strategy and the “franchise only” channel model
were not succesful particularly in the postpaid market
• Financial pressures prompted a shift to a profitability strategy, thus hurting growth rates
22
The LRSP estimates 1.7MM gross adds and 650k net adds for 2013.
758
Handsets 3G ~647K
977
330
100
547
90
463
Rationale for estimated Nextel 3G addressable premium market – LRP Coverage Plan
(Millions of lines, average numbers for 2013)
56,2
4,0
27,8
24,3
1,1
• Datacards = 4 MM
• Handsets >R$70 = 3.3 MM
Brazil Avg iDEN Outside Within Nextel Handset Handset Addressable
postpaid customers Nextel 3G 3G 2013 Postpaid Postpaid Premium
market (w/ potential 2013 coverage (1) below R$30 R$30-70 Market
(with migration) coverage(1)
Nextel)
(1) Applying the 2013 coverage assumption adopted in the LRSP v7.1 24
Considering this addressable market, Nextel’s adjusted market share(1)
would be 5% in datacards and 11% in premium handsets.
Datacards 2013 Handsets Premium 2013 Handsets Low Seg 2013
000 lines 000 lines, without migrations 000 lines, without migrations
463
298
LRSP lines, 257
without 166
migrations 90
33 32 48
6
Jan/13 Jul/13 Dec/13 Jan/13 Jul/13 Dec/13 Jan/13 Jul/13 Dec/13
Addressable
market 2.5 5.2 5.5 2.5 4.0 4.2 10.4 20.9 21.7
(MM lines)
2013 Average ~4MM Datacards ~3.3 MM Premium Handsets ~16MM LowSeg Handsets
Nextel market
1% 3% 5% 1% 6% 11% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
share (without
migrations) Opportunistic segment for Nextel
ARPU R$ 57 R$136 R$ 76
(1) Market share of lines, calculated over adjusted addressable market calculated with 2013 coverage assumption from LRSP v7.1 25
The expected ARPU in premium handsets would also require
significant differences over competitor prices.
Expand /
accelerate • Coverage plan already under review
coverage plan
How to increase
addressable 3G
market?
Explore low • Potentially larger market
segments (R$ 30- • Different business model to generate
70 monthly profitability with lower ARPU
expenditure) • Evaluate migration risk
How to increase
volumes in
2013?
How to increase
market share?
27
Agenda
Coverage plan
Brazil 3G
go-to-market 3G offering strategy
summary
Devices & subsidies
28
Nextel is currently discussing key 3G go-to-market themes.
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
• Iron Rock
29
Brazil 3G strategy update
Backup slides
31
A garantia de Qualidade virá, entre outros, da garantia de ações
durante ciclo de vida do cliente.
SIMPLICITY QUALITY
33
Benchmark - Vodafone
34
Brazil offers proposal - Differences between Peru and Brazil
Peru Brazil
Focus on price (same price as competitors) Premium Target – “few and good”
Smart growth: Through the service pricing we'll be able to control the raise of subscribers,
also, we'll not encourage the usage as a replacement of Fixed Broadband
35
iDEN x 3G subsidy
-42% subsidy with 52.4%
87.4 % of the adds iDEN Sim Card
gross adds.
60.0% 18% subsidy with 35%
52.4% Low Tier
gross adds
50.0%
15% subsidy with 2.4%
40.0% 35.0% Mid Tier
gross adds
30.0% 31% subsidy with 10%
High Tier
20.0% gross adds
10.0% Ultra 22% subsidy with 0.2%
10.0%
2.4%
0.2%
High Tier gross adds
0.0%
~R$100 ~R$200 R$300 a ~R$500 ~R$700 ~R$1.100 Weighted Average subsidy iDEN
R$400 Average 19%
Consultin
g Direct Sales Force 598 629 0
CAP 44 49 5
Nextel Store 2 9 7
Retail
Kiosk 60 67 7
Dealer Store 41 56 15
POC* 0 1 1
(1) preliminary estimative based on Iden and 3G projections – pending budget approval
(*) 3G regulatory structure 37
Sources: Store, Dealer and Kiosk nov2011 / Assessors oct/2011
The main sales channel is expected to be the consulting sales force.
2013 LRP
CAP 10.5%
POC* 0.4%
Telesales 6.3%
Remote
7%
Online 0.5%
38
Agenda
39
Brazilian mobile growth has been fueled by aggressive on-net
promotions and rate plans, which increase usage at expense of ARPU.
40
Source: OANDA; Pyramid
Mobile entrant case detail: 3 (UK)
Key facts
Country: UK Mobile penetration as of launch: 91% Est. coverage Year 1: ~50% pop.
4th/5th entrant: 5th Main shareholder: Hutchison Whampoa Subscribers Year 1: ~850.000
Launch date: Mar.03 Technology: UMTS/3G Market share(1) Year 1: 2.4%
Source: Oi company reports, Anatel, Teleco, Accenture analysis Note: (1) market share over total mobile base 42
Mobile entrant case detail: Xfera / Yoigo (Spain)
Key facts
Country: Spain Mobile penetration as of launch: 108% Est. coverage Year 1: ~30% pop.
4th/5th entrant: 4th Main shareholder: TeliaSonera (Sweden) Subscribers Year 1: 427.000
Launch date: Dec.06 Technology: UMTS/3G Market share(1) Year 1: 0.9%
Source: Yoigo, Merrill Lynch, Accenture analysis Note: (1) market share over total mobile base 43
Mobile challenger case detail: Tele2 (RUS)
Key facts
Country: Russia Mobile penetration as of launch: 12% Est. coverage Year 1: n/a
4th/5th entrant: n/a Main shareholder: Tele2 Group (Sweden) Subscribers Year 1: n/a
Launch date: 2001 Technology: GSM/2G and EDGE Market share(1) Year 1: <1% (acquisition)
Source: Company reports, Pyramid Research, Merrill Lynch, Accenture analysis Note: (1) market share over total mobile base 44
Mobile entrant case detail: Play (Poland)
Key facts
Country: Poland Mobile penetration as of launch: 109% Est. coverage Year 1: ~20-30%
4th/5th entrant: 4th Main shareholder: Novator, Tollerton Subscribers Year 1: ~1.2 Million
Launch date: Mar.07 Technology: UMTS/3G Market share(1) Year 1: 2.6%
350
553
3.776
46
Summary of ARPU from the 2013 LRP
136,4
2,0 0,0
12,0 75,5
2,0 0,0
26,0 11,0
96,4
43,4 19,1
Access Calling Interconnect SMS Usage Toll Total ARPU Access Calling Interconnect SMS Usage Toll Total ARPU
Revenue Party Pays Usage Revenue Party Pays Usage
95,1
3,5
1,9
9,6
Access Calling Interconnect SMS Usage Toll Total ARPU Access Calling Interconnect SMS Usage Toll Total ARPU
Revenue Party Pays Usage Revenue Party Pays Usage
47
Total addressable market evolution (LRP coverage)
5,5
Out of Coverage
5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,4
34,9 35,1 35,3 Datacard
34,3 34,5 34,7
Handset
Jan/ Feb/ Mar/ Apr/ May/ Jun/ Jul/ Aug/ Sep/ Oct/ Nov/ Dec/
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
48
Handset addressable market evolution by monthly expenditure range
(LRP coverage)
0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,4 1,4
Jan/ Feb/ Mar/ Apr/ May/ Jun/ Jul/ Aug/ Sep/ Oct/ Nov/ Dec/
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
49
The LRP coverage plan foresaw a stronger coverage in july
• Focus on core São Paulo and Rio de • Coverage expansion to São Paulo
Janeiro markets (larger metropolitan interior and Southwest
areas)
Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
# Cities w/ commercial
coverage
(>80% of Area Code
157 180 180 180 180 180 180 796 796 796 796 796 796
covered)
% GDP covered (Brazil) 27% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 64% 64% 64% 64% 64% 64%
50
Agenda
51
2G/3G migration is under definition whether to be a manual or
automatic process
Impacts on Nextel finances and operations as well as customer experience are being considered
1 2
3G Full Launch (voice + datacard) with manual
3G Soft Launch (datacard only) and 3G Full
migration process and automatic IT solution for
Launch in R1.3 with automatic migration process
R1.3
compensation)
ITX)
• Lower 2G ARPU
Nextel Impacts
• Poor client experience during migration process: • Unable to attend customer expectations
available only at stores (~2h process) • No voice solution when Sprint Iden network in USA is
• No HPPT experience in off-net roaming disconnected
53
Assumptions for Business Case analysis
54
Migration 2G – 3G Status
• Technology Migration from 2G to 3G will require a manual process performed by Nextel Brazil
Customer Care team in stores only due to system limitation. The process requires:
• 3G contract activation through the sales process (using SFO)
• 2G contract deactivation through the post-sales process (using CRM)
• Two system limitations are impacting the overall process, and a contingency solution is being
discussed:
• Credit check: no migration process for credit analysis (impeditive for migration)
• UFMI portability: manual solution on BSCS (not impeditive for migration but harms
customer experience)
• Final automatic IT solution (for post R1 release) that supports business areas needs is also
currently being discussed.
Macro Process for 3G Commercial Launch
TMA ~ 30 min TMA ~ 30 min
Customer Create Credit Analysis Activate 3G Deactivate UFMI Portability UFMI Portability
Requests 2G-3G 3G Sales Order (SFO-Crivo) Subscription 2G Contract Release Original Replace
Migration (SFO) (Maestro/BSCS) (Single) UFMI Temporary by
(BSCS/RA) Original UFMI
(BSCS/CX)
Fraud Risks
• Allow access of ~120 HC to credit and billing system enabling them to perform any changes on customer
contract such as:
• Apply any changes to the customer contract (apply discounts, change plan, add/remove services, etc)
• Apply change fee for unlimited time
• Offer plans not compliant with customer score (higher than credit limit allows)
• Changing customer credit limit
• Crivo and Billing system do not maintain alteration log history increasing Sox risk
• No comprobatory documents associated to the migration request (~ to current fraud that occurs in master
password authorization for add-on request)
57
Each market defined a different migration solution due to local
system and process differences
• Requests enters through Call-center
• Manual process performed by fullfillment
• Process takes ~2-4hours / per device – time does not include delivery of the device
Enter request Enter order and Process order – Deliver Reactivate 3G, Assign UFMI
(CCI) create 3G account activate 3G and device process 2G takeover number
(CCI, NOE, Siebel) suspend contract and deact 2G (NPG, Siebel,
(CCI/NOE) (CCI/NOE/BSCS) ICC, BSCS ix CX)
• Requests enters
• Total process time takes ~2 days
• Portability window is only available between Monday to Saturday except on holidays.
~30 min ~10 min
Store Portability dpt.
Create new sale Check client data Scan customer View document Check portability
request with (NPG) documents and and create request after
temp. number send request for portability request window
(Siebel) portability (Siebel/NPG) (Siebel/NPG)
Presentation Title 58
4 possible scenarios to approve client credit during migration
process have been mapped
Scenario valid for both consumer and corporate customers in store.
Premisses Corporate client (>20 devices) will be supported by ECC/EPV through manual process.
All scenarios are subject to operational erros in all steps.
• Customer care rep accesses RA and CX to perform manual • Activates temporary UFMI
UFMI number change • Open a request in Single for BO to perform the UFMI
• CX access should be restricted to only a few migration reps in portability in RA and CX
stores
Pros
• Increase of store HCs • Higher time (minimum of 48h) for customer UFMI activation
• Need to wait for line activation to perform manual portability • Manual activation and portability controls
process
Migration Status Update
Current Status
Accomplishments Issues and Risks
We are
here
Presentation Title 61
Iron Rock – Overview
The Product
3G iDEN
•Dual sim: Broadband + Voice
62
Iron Rock – Needs and Benefits
Needs
The customer will have two plans and two contracts: one for 3G data and one for iDEN Voice and data.
For control and fraud reasons, these contracts and plans should be automaticly linked by systems for activation and
deactivation
Solution
iDEN iDEN
Premium Sales AUTOMATI Premium
Specific
C linked Treatment
Clients or Requests fast data Channels Clients or
Cell
New Adds with quality voice New Adds
coverage Iron Rock Data Plan +
Post Sale
Device
Benefits
• The cost savings provided by nat. Roaming and ITX can help subsidize the cost of the handset for the customer
• Iron Rock is a temporary solution to migration issue
• Retention of premium clients (if done with 3G launch)
Design contingency solution(with minimum IT support) for R1.0 and work on full solution for a future
release
63
Iron Rock – Business Case
Cost Saving per sub per month
4,7
31,1
22,8
13,4
Single Band Client 5,1
(Ex. Saintsbury)
Assumptions
Dual Band - Voice/Dispatch via iDEN, Data via 3G
ITX net cost Toll Rev. Roaming Total (no roaming cost for voice)
Single Band - Voice/ Dispatch/ Data via 3G
Gross Adds 12
12 11
12
11 11 11
Migration 10 10 10
6 6 6 6
6 5 6 6
5 5 5 5
3 3 3 4 3
3
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
13 14 15 15
Impacts
Non-Exhaustive
All impacted areas must be aligned to prevent gaps.
IT Sales Regulatory
Create specific voice and data New Customers: No impact.
plans/bundles. Two orders and two contracts:
Motorola will be responsable to
Device + Sim 3G and Iden Sim
Create a reminder pop-up for back register the device on Anatel as
Only.
office to avoid fraud. iDEN.
Existing Customer:
Create fines based on 3G Data
Change existing plan, add one
Plan. Legal
order and one contract:
Device + Chip 3G No impact.
65