Crash Estimation using Statistical Methods

Statistical models using regression analysis have been developed which address
some of the limitations of other methods identified above.
These models address RTM bias and also provide the ability to reliably estimate expected
average crash frequency for not only existing roadway conditions, but also changes to existing
conditions or a new roadway design prior to its construction and use.
As with all statistical methods used to make estimation, the reliability of the
model is partially a function of how well the model fits the original data and partially
a function of how well the model has been calibrated to local data. In addition to
statistical models based on crash data from a range of similar sites, the reliability of
Current as of April 6, 2009 Highway Safety Manual – 1st Edition
Page 3-20 Part A / Introduction and Fundamentals Chapter 3—Fundamentals
crash estimation is improved when historic crash data for a specific site can be
incorporated into the results of the model estimation.
A number of statistical methods exist for combining estimates of crashes from a
statistical model with the estimate using observed crash frequency at a site or facility.
These include:
1) ƒ Empirical Bayes method (EB Method)
2) Hierarchical Bayes method
3) Full Bayes method
Jurisdictions may have the data and expertise to develop their own models and
to implement these statistical methods. In the HSM, the EB Method is used as part of
the predictive method described in Part C. A distinct advantage of the EB Method is
that, once a calibrated model is developed for a particular site type, the method can
be readily applied. The Hierarchical Bayes and Full Bayes method are not used in the
HSM, and are not discussed within this manual.
Quantitative approaches
NETWORK SCREENING
The final step in the network screening
process is to screen the sites/facilities
under consideration.
Excess expected Average Crash Frequency with Empirical Bayes (EB)
Adjustment

The Empirical Bayes (EB) method is applied in the estimation of expected average crash
frequency. The mean value of crash frequency in expected terms, adjusted using
Empirical Bayes is done with a method in which expected count for crashes is calculated.
In this method, expected count of crashes is calculated by a calibrated safety
performance function (SPF). After that, calculated count for crashes in expected terms is
adjusted by using the Empirical Bayes (EB) method.

Safety performance function will be utilized for predicting the average crash counts per
year in a highway site. The site may be an intersection provided along the highway.

Calibration SPF is developed with the data taken from a specific location over highway
at a particular time. Calibrated SPF represents the average condition for giving facility.
It becomes very crucial to adjust the calibrated SPF, when average conditions are
differing from the conditions at site.

The EB procedure will be statistical based method. It combines values of crash

frequency observed along with value of predicted crash frequency by taking the safety
performance function to compute frequency of crashes in expected terms.

Write the expression using EB method for finding crash frequency in expected terms.