Course : COMP6764 – Basic Statistics

Effective Period : September 2021

Discrete Probability Distributions

Session 5-6
 Learning Objectives

1. Describe the basic concepts of descriptive and

inferential statistics.

2. Calculate the statistical measurement which related to

descriptive and inferential statistics.
3. Use Microsoft Excel to do data analysis.

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The Probability Distribution
for a Discrete Variable

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A probability distribution for a discrete random
variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all possible
numerical outcomes for that variable such that a
particular probability of occurence is associated with
each outcome.

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
The following table contains the probability distribution for the number of
traffic accidents daily in a small town:

a. Compute the mean number of accidents per day.

b. Compute the standard deviation.

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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

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 Properties of the Binomial Distribution

• The sample consists of a fixed number of observations, n.

• Each observation is classified into one of two mutually exclusive and
collectivelyexhaustive categories.
• The probability of an observation being classified as the event of
interest, π, is constant
• from observation to observation. Thus, the probability of an
observation being classified as not being the event of interest, 1 - π, is
constant over all observations.
• The value of any observation is independent of the value of any other
observation.

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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability that
there are three tagged order forms in the sample of four?

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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability that
there are three or more (i.e., at least three) tagged order forms in the
sample of four?

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Thus, the probability of at least three tagged order forms is

There is a 0.37% chance that there will be at least three tagged order forms
in a sample of four.

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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability that
there are less than three tagged order forms in the sample of four?

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
A student is taking a multiple-choice exam in which each question has four choices.
Assume that the student has no knowledge of the correct answers to any of the
questions. She has decided on a strategy in which she will place four balls (marked
A, B, C, and D) into a box. She randomly selects one ball for each question and
replaces the ball in the box. The marking on the ball will determine her answer to
the question. There are five multiple-choice questions on the exam.

What is the probability that she will get

a. five questions correct?

b. at least four questions correct?
c. no questions correct?
d. no more than two questions correct?

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
A manufacturing company regularly conducts quality control checks
at specified periods on the products it manufactures. Historically, the
failure rate for LED light bulbs that the company manufactures is 5%.
Suppose a random sample of 10 LED light bulbs is selected. What is
the probability that
a. none of the LED light bulbs are defective?
b. exactly one of the LED light bulbs is defective?
c. two or fewer of the LED light bulbs are defective?
d. three or more of the LED light bulbs are defective?

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POISSON DISTRIBUTION

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You can use the Poisson distribution to calculate probabilities in situations such as these if the
following properties hold:
• You are interested in counting the number of times a particular event occurs in a given area of
opportunity. The area of opportunity is defined by time, length, surface area, and so forth.
• The probability that an event occurs in a given area of opportunity is the same for all the areas
of opportunity.
• The number of events that occur in one area of opportunity is independent of the number of
events that occur in any other area of opportunity.
• The probability that two or more events will occur in an area of opportunity approaches zero
as the area of opportunity becomes smaller.

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The number of work-related injuries per month in a manufacturing plant
is known to follow a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 2.5 work-
related injuries a month. What is the probability that in a given month, no
work-related injuries occur? That at least one work-related injury occurs?

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS

Assume that the number of new visitors to a website in one minute is

distributed as a Poisson variable. The mean number of new visitors to the
website is 4.0 per minute. What is the probability that in any given
minute
a. zero new visitors will arrive at the website?
b. exactly one new visitor will arrive at the website?
c. two or more new visitors will arrive at the website?
d. fewer than three new visitors will arrive at the website?

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS

The quality control manager of Marilyn’s Cookies is inspecting a batch of

chocolate-chip cookies that has just been baked. If the production process is
in control, the mean number of chocolate-chip parts per cookie is 6.0. What is
the probability that in any particular cookie being inspected
a. fewer than five chocolate-chip parts will be found?
b. exactly five chocolate-chip parts will be found?
c. five or more chocolate-chip parts will be found?
d. either four or five chocolate-chip parts will be found?

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HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

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 Formula :

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 APPLYING THE CONCEPTS

Refer to Problem 5.40. In the same time period, 24% of the consumers
registering a bank account and service compliant cited “deposit and
withdrawal” as the type of complaint; these are issues such as
transaction holds and unauthorized transactions.
a. What is the expected value, or mean, of the binomial distribution?
b. What is the standard deviation of the binomial distribution?
c. What is the probability that none of the 20 consumers cited “deposit
and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?
d. What is the probability that no more than 2 of the consumers cited
“deposit and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?
e. What is the probability that 3 or more of the consumers cited “deposit
and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?

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EXCEL GUIDE

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In insert function, there are some distribution function
that you can use in solving problem.

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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability that
there are three tagged order forms in the sample of four?

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Insert function – BINOM.DIST - OK

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The number of work-related injuries per month in a manufacturing plant
is known to follow a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 2.5 work-
related injuries a month. What is the probability that in a given month, no
work-related injuries occur? That at least one work-related injury occurs?

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Insert function – POISSON.DIST - OK

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Insert function – HYPGEOM.DIST - OK

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David M. Levine, David F. Stephan, Kathryn A. Szabat. Statistics for
Managers using Microsoft Excel. Pearson, 8th Edition.
Thank You

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