Life Tables

 Coursepack
 Chapter 9
 Pages 138-156
 Examples from Coursepack & uploaded on
LMS
 Life Tables
 Life table shows number of people living and
deaths at each age
 Important from many perspectives i.e. health
indicator, health planning emphasis,
employment generation, social security
schemes, population planning etc.
Typical format of Life Table
Age(x) People living at Deaths during the
beginning of year (lx) year (dx)
30 1,000 1
31 999 2
32 997 2
33 995 3
34 992 3
35 989 3
36 986 3
 Typical Symbols for Life Tables
lx = number of people surviving at
age x
lx+t = number of people surviving at
age x+t
dx = number of deaths during age x
& age x+1 (1 year)
ndx = number of deaths during ages x
& x+n (n years)
px = probability of survival at age x for
1 year
npx = probability of survival at age x for
Typical Symbols for Life Tables
qx = probability of death of a life aged
x in 1 year
q
n x = probability of death of a life aged
x in n years
/ q
n m x = probability that a person aged x
survives n years but dies before a
total of (n+m) years
 Computation of different
probabilities
1. dx = lx – lx+1 <=> lx+1 = lx-dx
2. Px = lx+1
lx

3. Px = lx+n
n

lx

4. dx = lx – lx+1 = lx (1-lx+1) = lx (1-px)

lx
 Computation of different
probabilities
5. lx qx => qx =
6. q =
m x =
7. P = nPx x mPx +n = x =
n+m x

8. / q = = nPx x mqx+n
n m x
 Calculation Examples
i. P31 = l32 = 997
l31 999

ii. 3 P30 = l33 = 995 = 0.995

l30 1,000

iii. q32 = d32 = 2

l32 997
 Calculation Examples
iv. q = l31 – l35 = 999 – 989 = 10
4 31

l31 999 999

v. 2/3 q31 = l33 – l36 = 995 - 986 = 9
l31 999 999
Or
2/3q31 = 2p31 x 3q33
 Example 1
Consider the following life table :
x qx lx dx
48 - 90,522 -
49 .0075 89,900 -

Calculate expected number of deaths between 48

& 50
 Example 1
Solution
d48 = l48 – l49 = 622
d49 = l49 x q49 = 674

(Answer : 1,296)
 Example 2
Given
q50 = .01, 2P50 = .96

q = .02
2/ 50 q = .09
and 2/3 51

Calculate P
3 53
 Example 2
Solution
2/3q51 = 2p51 x 3q53 = 2p51 x (1 – 3p53)

we need to find p51 & p52 (since 2p51 = p51 x p52)

2 p50 = p50 x p51

we can find p51 since we know 2p50 and p50

2 /q50 = 2p50 x p52

we can find p52 since we know 2/q50 and 2p50
Observations on typical mortality tables

1. Mortality rate at age 0 is generally very high

(particularly for developing countries) due to
infant mortality effect.
2. Mortality rate reduces drastically from age 1
onwards (10% or less compared to age 0).
3. Very low mortality rates between ages 5-15.
4. Accident hump in all populations between
18-30 (timing and extent of hump varies).
Observations on typical mortality tables

5. Accident hump more pounced for males.

6. Male mortality is much higher (almost twice)
than female mortality at practically all ages
starting in teens.
7. Difference increases between 20-60 years and
then decreases.
8. Average female life expecting is 6-8 years
more than males.
Observations on typical mortality tables

9. Both male and female mortality is improving

but females in improving at faster rate.
10. Rate of mortality increase is generally quite
low till age 40, slope increasing significantly
from 40-65 and then acquires exponential
growth.
11. Mortality tables (particularly insured tables)
are generally not very reliable above 75-80 due
to low exposure.
Observations on typical mortality tables

12. Pakistan originally EFU (61-66)

o Huge problem
o Low base
13. Now SLIC (2001-05)
14. Not reliable at older ages
15. Mortality adjustments made for females
 Life Expectancy
 Life expectancy is the number of years
(complete or partial) that a person can expect to
live at different points of time.
 Life expectancy at age 0 is the number of years
an individual is expected to survive at birth
 Life expectancy at age x is the number of years
a person age x is expected to survive
Life Expectancy in Regional Countries

Life expectancy at birth

Country (in years)
1. Afghanistan 64.8
2. Pakistan 67.3
3. India 69.7
4. Nepal 70.8
5. Bangladesh 72.6
6. Sri Lanka 77.0
 Infant Mortality Rate & Average
Education years in Regional Countries
*Infant Mean No. of
Country mortality Rate years of
(per thousand) Education
1. Pakistan 56 4.3
2. Afghanistan 47 3.9
3. India 28 6.7
4. Nepal 24 5.1
5. Bangladesh 26 7.2
6. Sri Lanka 6 10.8

* Infant mortality rate is the number of children dying per thousand

before age 5.
 Life Expectancy
 Life Expectancy in whole years (ex) of lx people
is
 lx x ex = 1 x lx+1 + 1 x lx+2 + 1 x lx+3…..
 e x = P x + 2P x + 3 P x
∞

= ∑
❑
 𝑡𝑃𝑥
𝑡=1

 Sum of all future annual survival probabilities is the life

expectancy at age x
 Truncated Life Expectancy
 Life expectancy (or number of years) counted
upto a certain point of time (“n”)

𝑛
 ex | =
∑𝑘𝑃𝑥 ❑

𝑘=1
 Useful Recursive Formulae
 ex = Px(1+ex+1)
 ex = Px(1+Px+1+ Px+1 ex+2)
 ex: | = Px(1+ex+1 : |)
 ex = ex: | + nPx ex+n
 ex: | = ex: | + KPx ex+K : |
 When n>K
 These formulae can be derived by logic
 Example 3
If q50 = .02, 1/q50 = .03 and 2/q50 = .05, find e50: |
 Example 3
Solution
We need to find p50, p51 & p52
We know p50(=1-q50)
q = p50 x q51 (we can find p51)
1/ 50

q = p50 x p51 x q52 (we can find p52)

2/ 50

(Ans : 2.84)
 Example 4
 You are given :
i. e50 = 20 & e52 = 19.33
ii. q51 = .035

Calculate q50
(Answer : .03)
 Example 5
You are given the following life table :
x lx ex
68 1,000 14.9
69 - 14.1
70 - 13.4

Find the expected number of deaths between the

ages of 68-70?
 Example 5
Solution
We can find p68 and p69 by using the recursive
formula twice.
ex = px(1+ex+1)
(Ans: 34)
 Example 6
If e40 = 30, e40 : | = 15, and e60 = 20
q
20 40
 Example 6
Solution
Use the relationship
e40 = e40 : | + 20p40 e60

(Ans: .25)