Social and Economic Impacts

of HAZARDS

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 1

 Social Vulnerability
• Vulnerable Populations
– Elderly
– Children
– Infirm (sicky, weak)
– Low Income

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 2

 Basic Economics
• The price and quantity of goods available
in a market are determined by the
demand for the goods and the supply of
a good available at any given time.
• Demand
• quantity
• Supply
• Price
11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 3
 Socio-economic
1. Humans: Deaths, Injuries, Immigration, Phycology
2. Politics: stability, Confidence, Governance
3. Governance: Law rights, Violence, terrorism, Corruption
4. Health: Staff, hospitals, medicines, epidemics, Access
5. Education: Staff, Facilities, Resources, Access, Outcome
6. Economy: Losses, Income distribution, Poverty, Labour market,
Resources, Activity

7. Environment: Basic geography, Land use/ land cover, Pollution

8. Infrastructures: Transport Communication, energy, water, sanitation,
Equipment

4
 Humans
Deaths, Injuries , Special needs,
Psychology, Immigration. Migration

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 5

 Politics

Conflict, Confidence, Stability, Governance

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 6

 Governance & Institutions
Law, Rights and voice, Violence and
terrorism, Effectiveness, Corruption

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 7

 Health

Staff, Hospitals, Medicines, Access,

Epidemics, Psychology
Socioeconomic Aspects

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 8

 Education
Staff, Facilities, Resources, Access,
Outcome

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 9

 Environment
Basic geography, Land use/ land cover,
Pollution

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 10

 Economy
Losses, Income distribution, Poverty, Labour
market, Resources, Activity

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 11

Economy

Macro Issues
Gross Domestic Product
• If the affected region produces a strategic
product for the rest of the country, larger
problems can migrate to other parts of the
country.
– Example: Disruption of oil refining capacity
Disruption of transportation
network.

GDP measures the monetary value of final goods and services—that is,
those that are bought by the final user—produced in a country in a given
period of time (say a quarter or a year). (www.imf.org) 12
Gross Domestic Product (‫)مجموعیملکیپ یداوار‬
Economy
Macro Issues
Gross Domestic Product
Drone attack Abqaiq and Khurais, Saudi Arabia
Up to 18 drones and 7 missiles

– 14 sep, 2019. SA drone

attacks on the worlds
largest oil processing
facility (5% of the global
supply)
– Oil production reduced by
5.7 Millions barrels from
9.8M.
– Oil prices raised by 15%,
the biggest jump in 30
years

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 13

Economy
Macro Issues
Gross Domestic Product

Pandemic effect
• coronavirus-related quarantines around the
world continue to keep oil consumption and
global oil demand low (2020)
• Oil prices up by over 2% for week ending April 2,
2021
year Average per barrel;

2022 $120

2021 $65.89

2020 $39.68

11/06/22 2019 $56.99 14

Economy
Macro Issues
Gross Domestic Product
Oil process during last 10 years

15
https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart
Economy
Macro Issues
Employment
Basic Economics
• One crucial question for macroeconomists
is employment.
• How Market for labor is affected?
• Firms Demand labor
• Workers Supply labor
• If Demand for labor increases, firms will
need to hire more workers, pushing wages
up. Usually this is associated with an
expansion in economic activity. 16
Economy
Macro Issues
Inflation
• Inflation
– If a catastrophe causes the supply of goods to
decrease in the affected region, prices will increase.
– On a larger scale, if goods from the affected region
are unavailable for distribution elsewhere, then the
larger economy will experience inflation as well.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 17

Economy
Macro Issues
Employment
• The question of how a catastrophe will affect
employment can give ambiguous answers.
– Increase in regional employment
• Rebuilding efforts may actually increase employment
in the region
– Decrease in employment
• A catastrophe like Hurricane Katrina may cause large
migration. This will have the effect of decreasing the
supply of labor thus causing an overall decrease in
employment.

11/06/22 18
Economy
Macro Issues
Employment
• Loss of labor supply can affect the labor
market in the region.
• Remaining employers and firms trying to help
rebuild the community have to pay higher
wages due to the loss of workers.

Hurricane Katrina was a destructive Category 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) Atlantic

hurricane that caused over 1,800 fatalities and $125 billion in damage in late
August 2005, especially in the city of New Orleans and the surrounding areas.
It was at the time the costliest tropical cyclone on record and is now tied with
2017's Hurricane Harvey. (wikipedia)

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 19

Economy
Financial Markets
Banking
• Catastrophes may negatively affect local
or regional banks more than large national
banks
– Loans are based on the value of pledged
collateral ‫مانت‬M
( M‫( )ض‬guarantee, security)
– Any uninsured damage to that collateral
makes default more likely
– If the event causes businesses to cease
operating, the regional banks will suffer due to
the loss of loan and deposit activity

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 20

Economy
Financial Markets
Banking
• A solid banking system is essential for any
economy to survive
• Recent research suggests that banks are
resilient even after a catastrophe.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 21

Economy
Financial Markets
Real Estate
• Real estate markets are local. As a result,
they rise or fall as local economies rise or fall.
• A catastrophe that diminishes economic activity
will be felt in the value of regional real estate.
• Catastrophes also reveal regional
vulnerabilities that may not have been known.
As a result, some jurisdictions may cease to
exist following a catastrophe.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 22

Economy
Financial Markets
Real Estate

• Generally speaking, real estate markets

recover as the local economy recovers.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 23

 Infrastructure
• Transport & com.,
• Energy,
• Water and sanitation,
• buildings,
• Equipment and
• non-structural components

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 24

 Case histories

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 25

 1. Pakistan 2005 Earthquake
On October 8, 2005, at 8:50 a.m. local time,
a magnitude Mw = 7.6 earthquake struck the
Himalayan region of northern Pakistan and
Kashmir. The earthquake epicenter was
located approximately 19 km north northeast
of the city of Muzaffarabad, the capital of the
Pakistani-administered part of Kashmir,
known as Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK).

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 26

 Massive land sliding

• A very dense, high-frequency band of

landslides was triggered along the fault
rupture trace in the mid slope areas;
• Almost all landslides were shallow,
disaggregated slides, with two of them
larger than 0.1 km2 .
• Due to the generally arid landscape,
liquefaction was not observed
11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 27
 Official damages
• The death toll as of November 2005 stood at 87,350.
• Approximately 138,000 were injured and Over 3.5
million rendered homeless.
• 19,000 children died in the earthquake, most of them in
widespread collapses of school buildings.
• The earthquake affected more than 500,000 families.
• Approximately 250,000 farm animals died due to
collapse of stone barns, and more than 500,000 large
animals required immediate shelter from the harsh
winter.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 28

• More than 780,000 buildings were either destroyed or damaged
beyond repair, and many more were rendered unusable for extended
periods of time.
• Out of these, approximately 17,000 school buildings and most major
hospitals close to the epicenter were destroyed or severely damaged.
• Lifelines were adversely affected, especially the numerous vital roads
and highways that were closed by landslides and bridge failures.
• Several areas remained cut off via land routes even three months after
the main event.
• Power, water supply, and telecommunication services were down
for varying lengths of time, although in most areas services were
restored within a few weeks.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 29

 2. Mirpoor Earthquake

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the epicenter of the quake was

stated to be one kilometer (km) southeast of Mirpur, 10 km beneath the earth’s
surfac
5.8 on the Richter scale jolted Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar and Lahore 

29 dead, over 452 injured

Fights were stopped in Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi. Roads have been
11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 30
damaged and crevices were created in canals in Mirpur.
• Jatlan-Mangla Road was
damaged at several
locations, rendering it
unusable. Medium to minor
damages were reported to
weak / old structures in
Mirpur, Jatlan and Jarikas.
However, no damage to
Mangla Dam was reported.

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 31

 Three Bridges Damaged Near Jatlan

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 32

 The building of Benazir Bhutto Medical
College's Old Boys Hostel collapsed due
to the earthquake

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 33

• Social and economic impacts of 2022
FLOODS, Pakistan

US Agency for International

Development, USAID
11/06/22 https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-fact-sheet-1-fiscal-year-fy-2022
Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 34
Pakistan floods 2022

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 35

 Floods 2022, Tonsa

11/06/22 Prof Dr M Fiaz Tahir, 2022 36