Forecasting air travel

• The air transport industry has experienced rapid growth with an

average annual growth rate of almost 13.54 percent over the past 35
years
• This increase in air traffic has been achieved through
• technological advances,
• productivity improvements and
• increased consumer spending (PPP)
• along with the progressive privatization of air transport markets.
• Several private players have entered this business and a few r in the
line
Why do we need forecasting?
• Forecasting helps you plan the next steps for your business. It helps you gain a
clear understanding of what measures you need to put in place to grow. It
allows you to come up with smart short-term and long-term goals.
• Objective forecasting goals are
• Investing your money wisely
• Setting measurable short-term and long-term goals
• Take advantage of real-time data (helps to anticipate market changes)
• Promotes collaboration and coordination
• Plan formulation
• Helps to budget
How to forecast ?
• Forecasting methods, in general, can be divided into three broad
categories:
• quantitative or mathematical,
• qualitative or judgmental, and
• decision analysis, which is a combination of the first two methods,
Time series analysis
• The time-series analysis methods are largely based on the assumption that
historical patterns will continue, and they rely heavily on the availability of
historical data.
• procedure of time series
• Step one collect historic data (Time series)
• Determine the trend may be +ve or –ve
• Predict based on the trend established
• The appropriateness of using trend analysis in forecasting depends heavily
on stability in past developments and the confidence of the forecaster that
the assumption of continuing trends is appropriate to the particular
operating environment.
• In its simplest form, trend projection analysis is nothing more
complicated than plotting the traffic data series on a graph
• A trend may be
• stable in absolute terms (linear growth)
• or in percentage terms (exponential growth),
• but it can also suggest an ultimate limit to growth, particularly if the time
span extends over several decades.