Skills Trend of

21st Century:
Country
Perspectives,
Policy Options,
and Interventions

Dr. M. Masrur Reaz

Chairman,
Policy Exchange

NSDA Seminar, March 20, 2022

1. Why is the Skills
and Jobs Agenda
Important for
Bangladesh
 Bangladesh @ 50 is a Development Role Model
     
Indicators 1971 2021
 In just 5 decades of Gross Domestic Product (in US$ billion) 9 409
Independence, transitioned to
Per Capita Income (in US$) 137 2554
Middle-Income Status Life Expectancy (in years) 47 72
 Bangladesh on track to become FOREX Reserve (in US$ billion) Nil 44
$500 Billion Economy (SCB, Fertility Rate (in number of children) 7 2
Agricultural Output (in tonnes per hectre) 1 5
IMF)
 Aspirations for Upper Middle- Indicators Bangladesh India Malaysia
Income Country by 2031 and
Developed Country by 2041. Average GDP growth rate 2015- 7.4 6.7 4.9
2019 (%)
Life Expectancy (years) 72 69 76
Seats held by women in national 21 14 15
parliaments (%)
 Bangladesh Beyond 50: Shifts in Growth Strategy and Enhancing

Competitiveness Critical to Accelerate the Stellar Success

 Bangladesh’s GDP per capita FY25 FY41

needs to increase five-fold to attain FY21
Indicator (Target in 8th (Target in Perspective
(Actual)
the ‘Developed Country’ status – Five Year Plan) Plan 2041)
from US$ 2,554 to US$ 12,996.
 Gainful employment required for Gross Investment as %
29.9 36.6 46.9
of GDP
2.2 million people a year.
 Growth composition will require Private Investment as %
21.3 27 36.3
greater share of investments of GDP

FDI as % of GDP 0.5 3 3

Exports (in billion US$) 38.7 56 319

‘Productive People’ a Key Component of Competitiveness

Facilitate innovation,
entrepreneurship, and Conducive
access to technology Policy/Regulatory framework

Skill up and train to create

highly productive workforce Create strategic supporting
infrastructure (land, utilities, ports, digital) to
make that investment productive

Facilitate access to Competitive Ensure congenial

appropriate sector-specific
Firms regulations for
financial products
World Class priority sectors

Gain access to attractive

markets
Investment
Climate
Expose domestic firms to
competitive forces

5
2. What Are the
Drivers of the Demand
for Skills in the 21st
Century
 Skills/TVET

Building Skills for Competitiveness: Multitude

of Factors to Determine Skills Demand
 Factor 1: Future Trends Shaping the
World/Business/People in the 21st Century

Globalization will be Universal access to Fall of

redefined with a stronger Acceleration of mobile web all technology and
emergence of social digital transformation connectivity costs
capitalism

By 2050, Agricultural
The use of on- The definition of production will need to
demand workforce 1 billion children
‘workplace’ will alive in the world increase by 70 percent due
will increase change to increase in population
and climate change
Factor 1 (Cont’d) : Future Trends Shaping the World/Business/People
in the 21st Century

Over 85% of humankind Growth of middle- Search for purpose,

will live in emerging class consumers in sustainability and spiritual
markets  emerging markets meaning

About 68% of the

Change in work
Growth in global trade and population is Supply-chains will
habits will lead to
corporate giants expected to live in fragment and
urban
urban areas/cities reconfigure themselves
transformation
in 2050
Factor 2. Leveraging New Opportunities from
Global Trends: Riding the Digital Economy
Wave

15.5% of Global GDP: 2.5 Times Faster Growth Than Global GDP Growth (WB)

USA: $11.5 Trillion , India: $1 Trillion by 2025, China: $5.4 Trillion

70% of new value created in the economy in next decade will be from digitally enabled
platform business (WEF)

The next decade will see another 3 billion people gain online access amid a total of 500
billion connectable devices by 2030

In just five years’ time, people will be interacting with connected devices on average
every 18 seconds compared to 6.5 minutes today

Overall spending on technology could increase by more than 50% between 2015 and
2030.

By 2030, it is estimated that rise in technology could create 20 million to 50 million jobs
globally
 10% of Global Economy in 2030 (UNFCC)
Factor 2
(Cont’d):
Leveraging New 1% increase in Green Economy raises employment by 0.34%
Opportunities
from Global
Global Green Economy Size $7.8 Trillion
Trends:

Turning the Green economy could create 24 million new jobs globally by 2030
Climate Risks (ILO)
Climate Investment opportunities globally is $23 trillion (IFC)
into Green
Economy Bangladesh has $172 billion investment opportunities in Climate
Smart Businesses (IFC)
Prospects
 Factor 3: Bangladesh’s Development Priorities:
Ramping Up Export-led Growth /Economic Diversification
Concentration of Top 3 Manufactured Products in Bangladesh’s Export Basket
Source: Export Promotion Bureau
Top 4 Products in RMG Export Basket – Woven and Knit, FY19
Fiscal Year Readymade Leather & Leather Home Textiles
Name of Item (In Woven) % Name of Item (in Knit) % Garments Products
T-Shirts, Singlets And Other Vests, Of 38.8 Men's Or Boys' Bib & Brace Trousers, 32.2 FY20 83.0 2.4 2.3
Cotton, Knitted Or Crocheted Breeches, Shorts, Of Cotton FY19 84.2 2.5 2.1
FY18 83.5 3.0 2.4
Jerseys, Pullovers, Cardigans, 13.1 Women's Or Girls' Trousers, Breeches, 17 .8 FY17 81.2 3.6 2.3
Waistcoats & Similar Knitted or Etc., Of Cotton FY16 82.0 3.4 2.2
Crocheted FY15 81.7 3.6 2.6
Jerseys, Pullovers, Cardigans, 8.2 Men's Or Boys' Shirts Of Cotton 11.3 FY14 81.1 3.7 2.6
Waistcoats & Similar Knitted or FY13 79.6 2.1 2.9
FY12 78.6 1.8 3.7
Crocheted of manmade fiber
61046200: Women’s or Girls' FY11 78.1 1.5 3.4
5.5 Men's Or Boys' Bib & Brace Trousers, 4.7
Trousers, Etc., Of Cotton, Knitted Or
Crocheted Breeches & Shorts Of Synthetic
Fibers
TOTAL 65.   66.0
6
Source: Export Promotion Bureau

Share of Non-RMG Export vis-à-vis Other Asian Countries

Country Agri ICT
Bangladesh 4% 2.97%
Thailand 20.33% 16.29%
Malaysia 24.66% 40.03%
Source: UN Comtrade and Policy Exchange Estimates
Factor 3 (Cont’d):Bangladesh’s Development Priorities: Value
Chain Upgradation for Diversification
 Factor 3 (Cont’d): Bangladesh’s Development Priorities: Creating More and Better Jobs

BANGLADESH’S MAJOR GAINS ON POVERTY REDUCTION AND SHARED PROSPERITY ARE LINKED CLOSELY
TO JOBS OUTCOMES

BUT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES REMAIN AND RECENT LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE RAISES CONCERNS OVER THE POVERTY-REDUCING
IMPACT OF CURRENT GROWTH

NEED TO BOOST JOB CREATION JOB QUALITY NEEDS SIGNIFICANT MORE INCLUSIVITY OF JOBS
RATE IMPORVMEMNT CRITICAL (Urban Female and Youth)

Source: BBS and PRI Estimates

Factor 4 : Building Back Better
from COVID-led Employment
Disruptions

• 5 Million jobs Lost ; Hours worked

7% below pre-pandemic year in
Bangladesh (ILO 2021)

• Upto 1.6 Million Youths Face

Unemployment (ADB & ILO); 36%
Urban Jobs Lost (BIGD 2020)

Sector-wise Loss of Jobs by 2020 ( UNDP and A2I )

3. The Future of Skills
and Jobs: Trends, Risks,
and Opportunities
Technology Will Create
Job Risks But
Opportunities Too Will
Be Aplenty
• One-fifth of the global workforce will be
impacted by the adoption of AI and
automation.
• By 2022, 50% of companies believe that
automation will decrease their numbers of
full-time staff.
• By 2030, robots will replace 
800 million workers across the world
(McKinsey Global Institute )
• The World Economic Forum reports that 
38% of businesses believe AI and
automation technology will allow
employees to carry-out new productivity-
enhancing jobs while over 
25% of companies think automation will
result in the emergence of new roles.
Automation Risk
Globally High in
Many Sectors:

Several of Them
Important in
Bangladesh for
Jobs
 More People May Need Transition to New Occupation in The Post
COVID Scenario
Share of the workforce that may need to transition to new Breakdown of the Incremental Changes in Terms
occupation by 2030 (in Million) of Pre COVID and Post COVID Scenario

Job Transition Needed

by 2030 in Post COVID
19, Scenario(in million)

Job Transition Needed

by 2030 in Post COVID
19, Scenario(in million)

nited States Japan Germany France Spain United Kingdom China India

United States Japan Germany France Spain United China India

Kingdom

Pre Covid 19 Scenario Post COVID 19 Scenario

Source: McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

 Stronger Job Growth Expected in Transportation and Health But Declines in Food
and Customer-facing Services

Source: McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

2021
The Mix of Occupations May Shift in All Countries with Higher Impact in Production,
Agriculture
 Demand for Technological and Social/Emotional Skills May Grow Across
Countries

Source: McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

2021
Living with Technology
will Require
Addressing Skills Gap
Skills and Skill Groups with Growing Demand by 2025
A Sectoral Picture of the Future:
Manufacturing: 13.2% Jobs at Risk

Source: World Economic Forum 2020

A Sectoral Picture of the Future:
Financial Services: Jobs at Risk 20.8%

Source: World Economic Forum 2020

A Sectoral Picture of the Future:
Agriculture and Food: Jobs at Risk 11.2%

Source: World Economic Forum 2020

 Emerging Set of 21st Century Skills for Youth
Fundamental 1.Literacy Character 11. Curiosity
Literacies Qualities
2.Numeracy
12.Initiative
3. Scientific Literacy
13. Persistence and Grit
4. ICT Literacy

5. Financial Literacy 14. Adaptability

6. Cultural + Civic Literacy

15. Leadership
Competencies 7. Critical Thinking and
Problem Solving 16. Social + Cultural
Awareness
8. Creativity

9. Communication

Source: WEF and BCG 21st Century Skills for Youth

10. Collaboration
New Capabilities for Digital Economy
 Emerging Green Jobs and Pertinent Skills Priorities

Sector Construction
Sector Agriculture Sector Manufacturing
New construction and
retrofitting, production of
Emerging green construction materials Green innovations in designing and
and appliances; expansion of Emerging developing products, material and
Emerging Green Work renewable energy sources and Green Work energy substitution, and modification
Boost productivity through Areas and control of processes using new,
Green generation; energy-efficient Areas
resource-efficient cleaner technologies
operation and maintenance
Work technologies, agricultural
(O&M)
Areas inputs, and farming practices.
1. Training related to changes in production
1. Training of workers and certified in heavy manufacturing industries, and SMEs
professionals in retrofitting in the areas of production processes and
Professionals and specialists in the Skills buildings into green buildings and in management (energy and resource efficiency,
fields of agricultural engineering, Development landscaping recycling, and waste management)
Skills research and development (R&D) Skills
Priorities 2. Orientation of architecture and 2. Upgrading of skills for technicians and
Development (especially in irrigation, pest building engineering toward green Development
management, and soil fertility), and workers to align with emerging green
Priorities designs and use of resource- Priorities technologies
agro-ecology. efficient materials
3. Production of professionals and specialists
in R&D and in revision of education curricula
and training programs, eco-design, products
and services, and assessment of
environmental impact to promote cleaner
processes and systems.
Emerging Green Jobs and Pertinent Skills Priorities
Waste Management and
Sector
Recycling
Sector Climate-friendly Transport
Emerging New technologies for collection, recycling
Emerging Green waste, and producing energy from organic
Green transport infrastructure, green/electric vehicles and
Green their operations, and alternative fuels and other related Work waste,
Work technologies Areas
Areas

1. Training in green transport infrastructure labor and O&M; 1. Training in facilities management, including
Skills 2. Production of more resource-efficient vehicles and their on-site waste management and disposal,
maintenance;
Skills
Development 2. Training in recycling and disposal of waste
3. R&D in alternative fuel technology;
Development
Priorities 3. Training and reorientation of managers and
Priorities
transport infrastructure design and engineering; and workers on minimal production of waste and
4. public transport network construction, O&M, and management use of environment friendly packaging
4. Training to local community workers to
increase knowledge of sustainable waste
management techniques and building greater
community awareness.
4. The
Bangladesh
Scenario : Skills
Needs,
Challenges, and
Progress
/Interventions
 The Existing Skill Gap and Training Needs by Sector

Sector Existing Skill Gap Sector Training needed Training needed

(2020/2021) (2025/2026)
Agro-Food Overall: 76%
Skilled: 77% Agro-Food 15,000 21,000
Semi-Skilled: 75%
Unskilled: 75% Construction 1,220,000 1,600,000
Construction 200,000 Skilled: 54% Skilled: 53%
Health Care Nurses: 96,000
Semi-Skilled: 46% Semi-Skilled: 47%
Medical Technicians: 82,000
Hospitality and Tourism Skilled:37,000 Health Care 41,000 25,000
Semi-Skilled:62,000 Hospitality and 144000 164000
Unskilled:126,000 Tourism Skilled: 24000 Skilled: 28000
ICT 88,000 Semi-Skilled: 39000 Semi-Skilled: 46000
(Gap is 40% )
Unskilled: 81000 Unskilled: 94000
Leather Goods Unskilled: 6,935
Semiskilled:6,664
Skilled: 62,246
ICT 100,000 1,059,000
RMG Leather Goods 108,000 150,000
Unskilled: 8,577
Semi-skilled: 48,130 Light Engineering 309,000 423,000
Skilled: 119,479 RMG 1,547,000 2,117,000
Light Engineering Overall: 35.97%
Skilled: 43.3% Shipbuilding 39,000 53,000

Source: BIDS
 Current Skills Scenario Need Strengthening to Support
Development Aspirations
Bangladesh in Global Skills Index Exports Per Capita (US$)
Business Skills Technology Skills Data Science Skills
Global Global Global 35
Country Rank Country Rank Country Rank Skill intensive manufacturing 3 763
223
Luxembourg 1 Japan 1 Finland 1
70
UAE 2 Belgium 2 Denmark 2 Labor intensive manufacturing 126
365
Czech 312
Switzerland 3 Republic 3 Belgium 3
120
Vietnam 14 Vietnam 13 Vietnam 42 Capital and resource-based manufacturing 16 270
410
Bangladesh 46 India 66 India 66
50
Services (ICT, Tourism) 2 48
Banglade-
77
India 55 Bangladesh 67 sh 67
Source: Global Skills Report 2021, South Asia Bangladesh
Coursera China Vietnam
Source: World Bank and UNCOMTRADE
Where are the challenges in delivering effective skills development?
• Weak teaching & learning
• Low awareness about job environment
• Weak private • Outdated curriculum
market trends/skills
investment and job demand • Weak industry
creation • Low social status of partnership/linkage
• Unpredictable • Inadequate QA capacity
technological changes
individuals
In technical/vocational skills
• Lack of information on • Weak accountability
training opportunities • Weak coordination
• Informality of
• Low and inequitable
economy accessibility
• Inadequate knowledge
• Inefficient matching
about current and • Culture of social network
future skills gaps to find jobs
• Poor alignment with Education,
overseas’ job market Skills/TVET

Ministries
NGOs

• Weak employability of Enterprises

graduates from education
& training
• Weak mechanism and • Inadequate soft skills
capacity for industry- • Poor job search skills of
institution collaboration Industry institutions / graduates
Public sector
• Lack of interest of employers
coordination bodies
in workplace-based training
 Significant Progress in Skills Agenda With Proactive Leadership and Drive from NSDA

1. Policy and Regulatory Developments National Skills

Qualification
National Skills framework,
Development NSQF (level 1-
Skills Rules 6) under
Development formulated Bangladesh
Draft National Qualification National
Action Plan Framework Qualification
2021-2025 is approved Framework
National (BNQF)
Human prepared
approved
National Skill Resources
Development Development
National Skills Policy 2021 is Fund Uses
Development approved by Policy 2019
Act 2018 Executive has been
enacted Committee gazetted
and waiting
for final
approval by
Governing
Board

2. Institutional Strengthening

Establishment of
National Skills Portal is
Post creation and NSDA membership
in progress; Will help
recruitment rules, T O & E WorldSkills Asia &
generate useful data and
for NSDA gazetted WorldSkills International
make more informed
policy decision
Significant Progress in Skills Agenda With Proactive Leadership and Drive by
NSDA
3. Outreach to Stakeholders 4. Expanding Access to Quality Skills

Participated in
Worldskills
competition in
Kazan in 2019 in
two trades;

Upcoming particpation in 8
tardes in the 46th World
skills Competition to be
held in 2022 in Shanghai Assessment
Guideline ofCentre
Assessor
Course Freelancing
Accreditation
Assessment Skills
Accreditation Certification
Guideline-2020
Guideline-2020;
Guideline-2020; 2020
Training
Trainee Assessment
Institute Registration
Guideline-2020;
Guideline;

Bangabandhu
National skills
competition to be
held regularly

Establishment of
Skills Portal is in
progress;

** Total guidelines approved 11; Another 6

currently in draft
NSDA Progress at a Glimpse
Activities Number/Quantity
Formation of Industry Skill council 13
STP registration 282
Competency Standard (CS) 105
Course Accreditation Doc (CAD) 105
Development of Curriculum 09
Assessment of Trainers 105
Assessment of Assessors 307
Development of Assessment tools 32
Recognition of Assessment Centers 43
Assessment of ICT Freelancers 65
Assessment of Trainee (Competent) 235
5. Policy Options Going
Forward
BROADER POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Developing Long-term Skills Public Private Partnership in

Strategy/Masterplan/Program delivery of skills: helps in Regulatory Reforms to Adjust
Aligning With National Growth high skills matching and high for COVID and Post-COVID
Strategies and Projected Key employment outcomes Realities
Growth Drivers

Employment-linked
Enhance quality and relevance performance-based financing Inclusive Skills training: Will
through industry partnership & of skills program would yield lead to high female labor force
job placement services better employment outcomes participation and employment
BROADER POLICY CONSIDERATIONS (CONT’D)

Common strategy for the development of

occupational standards, curriculum and Strengthen sustainability of Industry
training materials through the official Skills Councils (ISCs)
channels of NSDA

Greater emphasis on soft skills

Greater business orientation of training as part of the skills training
Skills Training Providers program
 SPECIFIC POLICY AREAS AND ACTIONS

2. RE-ORIENTING SKILLS SUPPLY TO PREPARE WORKFORCE FOR

1. BETTER LINKAGE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDES OF UNPREDICTABLE SKILLS DEMAND AND EVOLVING ECONOMIC
SKILLS
ENVIRONMENT

Institutional
Capacity
Labor Market Strengthening for Re-prioritizing Development of
Information and Sector-wide Technical Skills Teachers,
Skilling Up
Responsiveness Collaboration and Development in Institutions, and
Trainees Trainees/Students
Quality Assurance Post-Secondary
for Better
Strengthen labor market
Education Employability
information and
Strengthen central Train Higher-order Train Pedagogical
graduates feedback
planning and Cognitive Skills and Skills to trainers to
system to enable
collaboration facilities for Soft Skills in skills Expand Training in ICT Meet New Skills
evidence-based planning
skills development training for students and skills Requirements
and to inform institutions, trainees
industries and individuals
Assess trainees
Upgrade training
Higher-Order Cognitive
Environment in training
and Soft Skills in Post-
Speed up the Institutions
Increase labor market Secondary Education
responsiveness of skills implementation of
training qualification framework
and quality assurance Make STEM More
Practical and Hands- Improve Skills for Job
system Ensure Solid on Search and Career
Foundational Skills
Development among
among trainees
among trainees
 SPECIFIC POLICY AREAS AND ACTIONS
3. SKILLING UP WORKERS AND PROFESSIONALS
Upskilling for Businesses and
Professional Development for Worker
Expand Training for Female Workers
and Female Business Owners
Expand Training in Managerial Skills
for Mid-Career Professionals
Establish Lifelong Learning System
for Mid-Career Workers
Expand and Incentivize Skills
Training for the Migrant Workers
4. GREATER INVOLVEMENT OF THE DEMAND-SIDE IN SKILLS
DEVELOPMENT
PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN SKILLS
DEVELOPMENT
Build Brand of Skills of Bangladesh and Expand Facilities
for Private Sector Participation in Skills Development
Incentivize Employer-led Skills Training at Workplace
through PPP
Deepen Partnership with Private Sector for Improving
Quality and Relevance of skills training, and
Strengthening Industry Skills Council (ISCs) and Industry
Linkage
Establish In-service Training Programs for Industry
Professionals
Establish Specialized Skills and Research Partnership in
Industrial Zones/Clusters with Post-Secondary Institutions,
skills training providers and skills centers of excellence
THANK YOU