Climate Change

&
Sustainability
Lectures schedule
 Climate Change Concept
 Sustainability Concept
 Climate vs. Weather
 Climate change over years
 Climate change causes
 Climate System
 Climate indicators
 Climate data
 Sustainable Development Goals
Course Assessment
 Midterm 20%

 Assignment 5%

 Quiz 5%

 Group project 10%

 Individual / group presentation 10%

 Final exam 50%

Citizens in every country need to understand climate
change and what it means for them and the world.

The course introduces key climate actions, such as

adaptation, low carbon development, climate finance, and
climate negotiations. Moreover, it introduces sustainability
concept and sustainable development goals
WHOA!
Climate Change

Sustainability

Sustainable Development
 Climate

●The Climate defined as the "average weather", or as the statistical

description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities
over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of
years.
 Weather

The weather is the mix of events that happen each day

in our atmosphere. Even though there's only one
atmosphere on Earth, the weather isn't the same
worldwide. Weather is different in different parts of the
world and changes over minutes, hours, days, and
weeks.
 Climate vs. Weather
 “Weather is one football game, climate is the history of the National Football League.”

  Climate tells you what clothes to buy, weather tells you what clothes to wear.
 Weather vs. Climate

Weather Climate
●Refers to short-term ●Describes what the
changes in the weather is like over a
atmosphere long period of time in a
specific area
 Climate vs. Weather

 Different regions can have different climates. To describe the Climate of a place, we might
say what the temperatures are like during different seasons, how windy it usually is, or how
much rain or snow typically falls.

 When scientists talk about Climate, they're often looking at averages of precipitation,
temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind, and other measures of weather that occur over a
long period in a particular place.

 In some instances, they might look at these averages over 30 years. And, we refer to these
three-decade averages of weather observations as Climate Normal.
 Can you distinguish Weather from Climate?
 It feels hotter than usual right now in Bali (Weather- Climate)

 Freezing temperature in Toronto for 7 days in a row (Weather- Climate)

 The dry season in Kenya is from June to October (Weather- Climate)

 Thailand has high humidity all year around (Weather- Climate)

The climate system is the result of a delicate energy balance...

Out going Energy The balance

Incoming Energy Absorbed Energy

Incoming Energy

 The sun is the single most important source of energy for the
earth.

 The temperature on our planet results from the balance

between energy coming into the earth from the sun (solar
radiation) and the energy leaving the Earth into outer space
(Energy balance)

 an estimate of 343 watts per m2 reaches the planet, but only

240 watts per m2 passes through the atmosphere
Outgoing energy

 About half the solar radiation striking the Earth and its
atmosphere is absorbed in the surface.

 The other half is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected

back into space by clouds, small particles in the atmosphere,
snow, ice and deserts at the earth’s surfaces.

 Part of the energy absorbed at the earth’s surface is radiated

back or re admitted to the atmosphere and space in the form
of heat or thermal energy.
Absorbed energy

 Solar energy is absorbed by the Earth’s surface and warms it.

 The conversion of energy into heat causes the emission of

long-wave (infrared) radiation back into the atmosphere

 Not all radiation makes it out into space –some is trapped by

clouds and greenhouse gases and is reemitted back to the
Earth’s surface
The balance

 The temperature we feel is the balance of the heat energy

that is trapped on Earth by the planet’s atmosphere.

 The thermal radiation absorbed and reflected back to the

Earth’s surface by Greenhouse gas allows for an average
temperature on Earth of around 14°c well above 19 °c

 More GHG in the atmosphere can trap more heat, and lead to
a gradual increase in temperature and changes in the climate
How has the climate on Earth evolved in the
past?
Past 2 billion Years

55 Million years

500,000 - 100,000 years ago

10000 years until now

Past 2 billion Years
During the last 2 billion years the Earth's climate has alternated between a frigid
"Ice House", and a steaming “Hothouse", like the world of the dinosaurs. During the
‘greenhouse’ period, there is a lot more liquid water on the planet, while during
‘icehouse’ world the climate is cold enough to support large sheets of ice,
sometimes covering the entire planet
55 Million years
The most recent transition between those phases occurred about 55 million years
ago when the temperature reached a thermal maximum followed by a long period
of cooling, which we are currently experiencing.
500,000 - 100,000 years ago

500,000 - 100,000 years ago a period of hot and cold fluctuations occurred.
Samples from the Arctic ice show that over a period of several hundred thousand
years, the great ice sheets that covered parts of North America and Europe have
melted in a series of temperature surges, each one occurring approximately every
100,000 years. This leads us to the last 10,000 years.

10000 years until now

The last 10,000 years are known as the Holocene. They have been uniquely
stable and warm. Sea level stabilized at its current level about 7,000 years ago.
This has allowed human civilization to develop. Even though temperatures were
fairly stable compared to previous periods, there have still been slight climate
variations in the recent climate history, such as a temperature decline between
about 1600 and 1850, known as the Little Ice Age.
 What causes changes in climate?
Earth’s climate does not change without a reason. Many factors may influence it over long periods of
time. Such factors are known as "climate forcing".

Solar variability Volcanic Changes in the

activities Carbon cycle
Solar variability

Solar variation, the change in the amount

of radiation emitted by the Sun, or small
changes in the Earth’s rotation in orbit
may change the amount of energy
Received by the sun. However in the past
140 years, we have experienced very little
solar variation
Volcanic activities

Unpredictable volcanic eruptions can also

cause climate disruption. Large eruption
inject aerosols into the atmosphere, which
cools the earth’s surface.
Changes in the Carbon cycle

When is the amount of carbon dioxide

and other Greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere increases, this has a direct
casual effect on changes in the climate.
Climate system
 Climate System

Sun Geosphere Atmosphere Hydrosphere Biosphere

01. Sun
Sun is the source of an enormous amount of energy,
a portion of which provides Earth with the light and
heat necessary to support life
02. Geosphere
Massive rocky material

 It breakdown to form soil – to grow plants

 99% of carbon is founded in rocks and sediments
 03. Atmosphere
• Nitrogen N2 78%
• Oxygen O2 21%
• Other gases
 Greenhouse gases
• Water vapour
• Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
Aerosols
• Ozone Shiny Aerosols ------------ Reflect lights
Dark Aerosols ------------- Absorb lights
04. Hydrosphere

Water

• Oceans 97%
• Glaciers and ice sheets 2%
• Water droplets

Dark Oceans …………………… Absorbs

Lights
Ice and clouds ………………… Reflects Lights
 05. Biosphere
• Human Part of the biosphere – Deforestation
• Living things – exchange carbon and oxygen with atmosphere

Vegetation ………………… absorbs Lights

Desert /grass lands …………………… reflects lights
In the oceans ……….life releases carbon
Rocks Water

Climate
system

Life Gases
 Global Carbon
Temperature dioxide

Climate
Indicators

Sea level
Ocean heat rise

Precipitation
 Climate Indicators

Global tempreture ●Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• 2017 the warmest years in record • CO2 = 403 PPM in 2016

• 2013- 2017 were the warmest 5

years on record
 Climate Indicators

Ocean heat ●Sea level rise

●Ocean absorb 94% of the heat due to ●Ocean heat + melting ice
increased Co2 It causes

● ice melting – sea ice the 8th lowest summer

minimum in2017
Climate Indicators

●Precipitation
●Precipitation is a form of water from the atmosphere. It is a term in meteorology,
and includes rain, snow, sleet, ice pellets dew, frost, and hail. These form by
condensation from atmospheric water vapor, and fall under gravity. Fog and mist
are not precipitation but suspensions.
 What has changed in Numbers and Graphs
●Surface Temperature
• Warming since the mid-18th century is estimated to be around 1.1 degree
Celsius.

• The surface temperature has been increasing by 0.1 degree Celsius every 5-6
years since the 1970s.

• 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 are the four warmest years on record.
●Greenhouse Gases

• In 2017, the global levels of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere passed 405 parts
per million (ppm) and will not decrease for generations to come. This does not
include other greenhouse gases or aerosols, which also affect the climate.

• The concentration of other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and N2O were also the
highest on record in 2018.

• Together, land-use change and fossil CO2 emissions reached an estimated 41.5 ±
3.0 billion tons of CO2 in 2018. You might find this also expressed in gig tons or
GtCO2.
●Ocean Heat

• More than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases goes into the oceans.
The global surface temperature has been rising slowly because our oceans have
been absorbing most of the excess energy in the climate system.

• Warming of the upper (0–700 metres) ocean accounted for about 64 % of the total
heat uptake.

• Recent observations also show substantial warming of the deeper ocean (between
depths of 700 and 2,000m and below 3,000m).
Sea Ice
• The extent and volume of Arctic sea ice have declined rapidly since global data
became available, especially in summer.

• In each year between 2007 and 2018, Arctic summer sea ice extent was lower
compared to any previous year since the introduction of satellites in 1979.

• The largest bodies of ice, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, have been losing
large amounts of ice at an increasing rate since 1992.
Sea Level
• Global mean sea level in 2016 was the highest yearly average since measurements
started in the late 19th century.

• The rate of sea level rise since 1993, when satellite measurements became
available, is around 3 mm/year, compared to 1.2 to 1.7 mm/year prior.

• In 2018, the total sea level change since 1993 was 78 mm.
●Ocean Acidity
• In the past decade, the oceans absorbed around 25% of anthropogenic carbon
dioxide emissions. The absorbed carbon dioxide reacts with seawater and leads to
ocean acidification.

• Ocean surface pH has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over the industrial era as a
result of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This decline corresponds
to an increase in oceanic acidity of about 30 %.

• Ocean acidification in recent decades has been occurring 100 times faster than
during past natural events over the last 55 million years.
Greenhouse Gases
 The global climate indicators have been tracked for a
fairly long time, in some cases since the 1850s. There
is a vast amount of data that shows what has changed
since.

 Everything on our planet is connected - every rock,

every plant and every drop of water are affecting and
being affected by the Earth's climate.

 Each degree matters, each year matters, and each

decision matters: not acting today is adding to the
burden of the next generations. Limiting global
warming to 1.5°C is not impossible but requires strong
and immediate policies.
 Carbon futures

●By adding carbon data into climate models,

scientists have come up with different possible
emissions pathways leading us to the year
2100. Depending on the amounts of
greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere,
different global mean surface temperature
changes are projected.
 Greenhouse gases affect our climate. How the Earth's
climate will change in the future depends on the
amount of greenhouse gas emissions released into the
atmosphere.

 We use climate indicators, such as temperature, sea

level and ocean acidification, to describe and track the
state of the climate.

 Greenhouse gas emissions have caused a 1.0°C rise in

the global temperature over the past 150 years.
 The ocean has become hotter and more acid. Glaciers
and sea ice are losing mass.
 ● 2018:
● carbon dioxide emission is 41.5 GtCO2/ Year if this trend continues the
global temperature will increase by over 3 degrees Celsius
0:
In this scenario there is no further climate policy implemented and, being consistent with current pledges
by countries, the emissions continue to increase driving the temperature up to 3 degrees and more.
 ● P1: No overshoot

● A scenario in which social business and technological innovations results in

lower energy demand up to 2050 while living standards rise, especially in the
global south a downsized energy system enables rapid decarbonization of
energy supply. Afforestation is the only carbon dioxide removal option
considered

P2: limited overshoot

A scenario with a broad focus on sustainability including energy intensity, human development, economic
convergence and international cooperation, as well as shifts towards sustainability and health
consumption patterns, low carbon technology innovation and well managed land system with limited
societal acceptability for carbon capture and storage .
 ● P3: Middle of the road

● A scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows

historical patterns. Emission reduction are mainly achieved by changing the
way in which energy and products are produced and to a lesser degree by
reduction in demand

P4: Higher overshoot

A resource and energy intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread
adoption of greenhouse gas intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and
livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making
strong use of carbon dioxide removal through the deployment of carbon capture and storage
 Projected changes in climate indicators in numbers.
●A global surface temperature change of 1.5°C is among the most
optimistic scenarios. Yet, it will still significantly affect our climate
indicators.

Sea level
Ocean heat and acidification
Temperature anomalies
0.26 to 0.77 m global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005)
Coral reefs are projected to decline by a further 70–90%.
Global annual catch for marine fisheries will decrease by 1.5 million tones
3°C hotter extreme hot days in mid-latitudes
4.5°C warmer extreme cold nights in high latitudes

Source: IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C.
Projected changes in climate indicators in numbers.
●Carbon emissions leading to a 2°C temperature change is the
greatest tolerable change. It will still vastly affect our climate
indicators.
0.30 to 0.83 m global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005)
Sea level
10 million more people exposed to sea-level rise risks (relative to >1.5°C)

Coral reefs are projected to decline by 99%

Ocean heat and
acidification
Global annual catch for marine fisheries will decrease by 3 million tonnes

4°C hotter extreme hot days in mid-latitudes

Temperature anomalies
6°C warmer extreme cold nights in high latitudes

 Higher risks from heavy precipitation and droughts

Other  Higher risks from forest fires

 Risks from some vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever

Source: IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C.
 Climate Data
To understand climate; long time series of data covering

 Decades

 100 years

 50 years

Main reference

Pre- industrial period (1850-1870) – beginning of observational record

 World metrological organization (WMO)
 Weather forecasting

 Climate analysis

Collect Data

National Regional Specialized

centers centers centers
National meteorological and hydrological services
 They collect data every day and every hour

 They collect data on Temperature, snowfall, sunshine

We use data not only for track climate behaviour but also to predict scenarios
of future climate

 GHG concentration is only measured globally

What is the Role of Credible Data and Analysis

 It is hard to trust one's senses when it comes to credibly assess climate change.
Over time, a complex system that collects data and produces credible analysis has been
developed.
Forecasts

 A weather forecast is a prediction of what the weather will be like in the short to medium
term.
 Weather forecasts are typically accurate up to 7 days in advance.
 A climate forecast or climate prediction is generated on a seasonal, inter-annual or long-
term timescale.
Projections
 Climate projections help us predict the response of the climate system to actors such as
the concentration of GHG emissions.
 Projections depend on assumptions about future socioeconomic and technological
developments.
For example, the uptake of renewable energies.
Models
 A climate model is a complex software which aims to reproduce as faithfully as possible
the real climate system through mathematical simulations.
 Because of the numerous variables related to those complex processes, climate science
prepares different models and compares them
The Global Climate Observing System
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 to ensure that the
observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and
made available to all potential users.

The goal of GCOS is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system,
including a range of physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic,
hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.

The infographic below sums up the various indicators and measurement methods
that comprise this complex system
Did you know that ocean and upper-air observations are
crucial in understanding changes in the climate?

Ocean observed variables

Upper air- observed variables
Is the climate becoming more extreme?
• Extreme weather events have been occurring for 1000s of years
•
• Not everything it happens entirely due to the climate change

• Scientists can calculate contribution of climate change to extreme weather

events
 Attribution science
Attribution science compares climate models at the pre-industrial level of GHG and at the current
level of GHG. If there is a difference in the likelihood of exceeding average meteorological
indicators (such as temperature or rainfall), it can be attributed to man-made climate change.

1. Running a global climate model without climate change (pre- industrial of GHG)

Difference

2. Running a global climate model with climate change (current level of GHG)
Is the climate becoming more extreme?
Option 1
Choose an index such as heat
What is the likelihood of exceeding certain threshold under the two model ?

Option 2
Running a model many times
Does the event occur more frequently with climate change ?
Evidence of Extreme Climate
Heatwaves
• 2018 was the fourth warmest year on record - the fourth one in a row! In itself, this does
not constitute an extreme heat event, which occurs when the daily maximum temperature
of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C
(9 °F), the normal period being 1961–1990.
Evidence of Extreme Climate
Tropical Storms
Tropical storms are known as typhoons, hurricanes and cyclones depending on where they
happen in the world. In 2018, the number of tropical cyclones was above average.
Evidence of Extreme Climate
Flooding and Extreme Rainfall
In August 2019, the south-west Indian state of Kerala suffered major flooding, reportedly the
worst since 1924. Total economic losses were estimated at US$ 4.3 billion.
A Decade of Climate Extremes
• The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since modern
measurements began around 1850.
• It saw above-average precipitation, along with a number of extreme weather events.
• A decadal perspective makes it possible to assess trends and anticipate the future. It
can also inform efforts to develop operational climate services that provide information
and forecasts for decision-making in agriculture, health, disaster risk, water resources
and other sectors. Some of the major heatwaves of the 2001–2010 decade of extremes
are highlighted on the map.
A Decade of Climate Extremes
 Canada: warmest and most humid summer 2010
 USA: persistence heatwaves (2005/2007)
 South America: persistence atmospheric blocking pattern (temperatures reached
between 35 -40 and it is above the average, which ranges between 20-28)
 Europe: extreme heatwaves in 2003
 Northern Africa: extreme heatwaves 2003 (43 – 44 – 47)
 Western Africa: abnormally high temperature 2002 (50)
 Russia: extreme hot weather condition
 Southern Asia: extreme heatwaves (2002- 2003-2005) (50)
 Japan and china: hottest summer on record (2010)
 Australia: disastrous bush fire (2009)
ere is a clear scientific link between the increase in extreme
ather events (such as heatwaves, hurricanes, and floods)
d changes in the climate. The negative consequences of
mate change can be felt anywhere in the world.
Climate change impact
Risk assessment

 Exposure
 Risk

Climate change can affect

Insurance Public Disaster
1. The species sector health reduction

2. Economic activity
Climate change impact

Exposure
Hazard

Risk

Vulnerability
 Hazard:
Natural or human induced physical events that may have adverse effects on systems.

 Exposure
Presence of human and natural assets in places where hazards may occur

 Vulnerability
The extent to which exposed assets can suffer adverse impact when affected by hazards

 Climate risk
A function of hazards exposure and vulnerability
Climate change impact
The impact is a function of the vulnerability of the exposed assets
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate hazards increases
the climate or disaster risk.

Example

 In urban areas exposure due to urbanization is high

Sea level rise affects
 Coastal areas
 Island states

Ocean acidification affects

 Coral reefs
 Marine economy
 Food security

Temperature increase affects

 Agriculture
 Human health
Identify the category hazards or exposed assets

Road Sea-level
cyclones
networks rise

changes in Irrigation
Heat waves systems
precipitation
 What is sea-level?

Sea-level is the average height of the Ocean with respect to land, irrespective of tides. Plate
tectonics, ice caps on land melting or growing, ocean water warming/expanding, and
cooling/contracting can affect the sea-level by changing the volume of ocean basins.
Impacts of climate change on Human life

Slow onset Rapid events

Desertification Hurricanes

Acidification Floods

Sea level rise

Warsaw mechanism for loss and damage

Region Public Losses Private Losses

Social sector    
- Education
- Health
Production sector    
- Agriculture crops
- Fisheries
- Industry
- Water resources
Infrastructure sector    
- Roads
- communication
Total    
Climate sensitive sectors

Food and Agriculture

• Change in crop region
• Impact of extreme events
• Effects on food supply
Climate sensitive sectors
Health
• Water borne diseases
• Vector _ borne diseases
• Air borne diseases
Climate sensitive sectors
Energy
• Impact on existing energy system
• New renewable energy source are climate sensitive
Climate sensitive sectors

People
• Exposure
• Gender
• Disaster risk reduction
• Vulnerable communication
• Level of economic development
What causes changes in climate?

MERCURY VENUS MARS

Mercury is the Venus has a Despite being
closest beautiful red, Mars is cold
from the sun name but it’s hot

JUPITER SATURN NEPTUNE

It’s the biggest Saturn is the Neptune is the
planet in our ringed one. It’s a farthest planet
solar system gas giant
 You could use three columns, why not?

MARS JUPITER SATURN

Despite being It’s a gas giant Yes, this is the
red, Mars is a and the biggest ringed one. It’s a
cold place planet gas giant