DEWAN ENERGI

Bandung, 11 Oktober 2022

Peta Jalan Transisi Energi Indonesia

Menuju NZE 2060
Asumsi dan Indikator Konsumsi Energi

Retno Gumilang DEWI dan Ucok WR SIAGIAN

Pusat Kebijakan Keenergian - ITB
Indonesia NDC 2030 and NZE 2060

2
 Indonesia NDC & Paris Agreement

NDC Critically insufficient

Highly insufficient

Insufficient

2°C compatible

1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible

NEED FOR
NEGATIVE CO2

Indonesia NDC (Nationally Determine Contribution) Remarks

GHG Emission 2030 BaU Development Path not deliberated
(Mton CO2-e) % reduction of BaU
Base Year, the mitigation policies
Sektor 2010
(MTon CO2-e) BaU CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 Mitigation scenario & considers
sectoral development target
(Unconditionally)
Energy* 453.2 1,669 1,355 1,271 11% 15.4%
Waste 88 296 285 270 0.38% 0.9% CM2 Ambitious mitigation scenario +
International support available
IPPU 36 69.6 66.85 66.35 0.10% 0.1% (conditionally)
Agriculture 110.5 119.66 110.39 115.8 0.32% 0.1%
Forestry** 647 714 217 269.5 17.20% 24.1%
Total 1,334 2,869 2,034 1,759 29% 41%
Source:fugitive;
*Including Climate Actionpeat
**Including Tracker (2017)
fire; CM1 and Updated
= unconditional, Indonesia NDC (2021)
CM2 = conditional 3
Indonesia Enhance NDC

GHG Emission Level 2030 GHG Emission Reduction

GHG Emission Annual Average
Sector Level 2010* MTon CO2e MTon CO2e % of Total BaU Growth BAU

(Mton CO2e) BaU CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 2010-2030
1. Energy* 453.2 1,669 1,311 1,223 358 446 12.5% 15.5% 6.74%
2. Waste 88 296 256 253 40 43.5 1.4% 1.5% 6.25%
3. IPPU 36 69.6 63 61 7 9 0.2% 0.3% 3.35%
4. Agriculture 110.5 119.66 110 108 10 12 0.3% 0.4% 0.40%
5. FOLU (Forestry & Other
647 714 214 -15 500 729 17.4% 25.4% 0.50%
Land Uses)**
TOTAL 1,334 2,869 1,953 1,632 915 1,240 31.9% 43.2% 3.90%
 Indonesia NZE 2060
LTS LCCR NZE
(Long Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience) (Net Zero Emissions)
3,000
LTS 2050 LCCP: Peaking 5 sector in
2,500
2030 with net sink FOLU NZE 2060
2,000
Waste
1,500
IPPU
FOLU
1,000
Agriculture
500 Energy
Net emiss.
-

(500)
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

2020
2030
2040

2010
2020
2030
2010

2050

2040
2050
CPOS TRNS LCCP

Sumber: LTS LCCR Indonesia, KLHK (2021) Sector 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Energy 453 638 1030 960 572 129
• CPOS (Current Policy)
IPPU 35 55 62 55 50 45
• TRNS (Transition) Agriculture 84 88 94 98 102 101
• LCCP (Low Carbon Scenario Compatible FOLU 470 98 -140 -246 -304 -362
with Paris Agreement Target) Waste 89 139 198 170 120 87
Net Emissions 1,131 1,018 1,244 1,037 540 0 5
Future Socio-Economic Condition
and Energy Demand Target

6
 Assumptions for
Socio-Economic and Energy Demand Target

7
 Asumsi Sosio-ekonomi dan
Target Konsumsi Energi
 Pertumbuhan penduduk merujuk proyeksi penduduk Indonesia (BPS, 2021) dengan asumsi akan terjadi
pengendalian penduduk sehingga jumlah penduduk di tahun 2060 diperkirakan mencapai 330 Juta Jiwa.
 Pertumbuhan ekonomi mengikuti proyeksi LPEM-UI, skenario 1 (rendah) dengan pertumbuhan 5.2%/tahun dan
skenario 2 (ekonomi tinggi) dengan pertumbuhan 5.9%/tahun. Pandemic scenario membutuhan pertumbuhan
ekonomi 5%-6% (2022-2025) and 6.3%-7.1% (2026-2030) untuk keluar dari ‘middle income trap’ menjadi negra maju
di tahun 2045 yang disupport dengan pertumbuhan energi tinggi.
 Konsumsi energi final rata-rata dunia 2020 (IEA 2022) 1,32 toe/kapita/tahun, negara-2 OECD 2,68 toe/kapita/tahun,
dan energi primer rata-rata dunia sebesar 3 toe/kapita/tahun.
 Konsumsi energi Indonesia 2060 ditargetkan melebihi rata-rata dunia 2020, yaitu energi final S1 (1.35 toe/kapita/
tahun) dan S2 (1.5 toe/kapita/tahun) yang telah mempertimbangkan ‘trajectory’ teknologi (makin efisien)
 Dekarbonisasi sektor energi untuk mencapai NZE 2060 dilakukan dengan perpindahan pembakaran bahan bakar
fosil di sektor pengguna akhir menjadi listrik yang memiliki ‘carbon foot print’ yang makin rendah.
 Pada 2060, konsumsi listrik skenario S1 5.500 kWh/kapita/tahun dan skenario S2 (6.500 kWh/kapita/tahun).
 Sebagai pembanding konsumsi listrik negara maju 7000-8000 kWh/kap/tahun (2020). Konsumsi listrik dunia
perkapita 2018 sebesar 2.937 kWh dan konsumsi listrik OECD perkapita sebesar 7.085 kWh)

8
Asumsi Sosio-ekonomi dan Target Konsumsi Energi

 Di sektor transportasi terjadi perpindahan dari kendaraan pribadi ke transportasi masal. Energi yang
digunakan berpindah dari bbm fosil ke energi yang rendah karbon (gas, H2, biofuel, dan listrik)
 Untuk mencapai NZE2060, energi sektor industri pindah dari batubara ke gas dan listrik pada system
yang tidak dapat pindah dari fosil, apabila memungkinan, menerapkan CCUS setelah 2050
 Sektor komersial dan rumah tangga menggunakan system dan peralatan energi yang makin efisisen
hingga best available technology
 Andalan sumber energi pembangkit listrik bergeser dari batubara ke energi terbarukan dan energi
bersih, utamanya tenaga air, panas bumi, biomasa, matahari, angin, dan tenaga nuklir.
 Projection of
Population and
Growth

Population and Growth 324

350 294 330 1.4%
313

Population Growth
270
Population, Million

300 1.2%
234
250 1.0%

200 0.8%

150 0.6%

100 0.4%

50 0.2%

- 0.0%
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 3 1 3 4 3 6 38 40 42 44 46 48 5 0 5 2 54 56 58 60
2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20

Population, Million Pop Growth

10
 Future Economic Growth
20,000
Output Services Low Scenario
Cement
18,000
Iron & Steel
16,000
GDP (constant rate 2010) & Growth
14,000 Transportation
12.00 8.0%
12,000 Other Manufacture & Construction
Billion USD

10,000
Chemicals 10.00 6.0%
8,000
Textile, leather & footwear
6,000 8.00 4.0%
4,000 Fertilizer

Billion USD
6.00 2.0%

Growth
2,000 Pulp & Paper

- Agriculture & Mining

2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 4.00 0.0%

2.00 -2.0%

GDP Services
- -4.0%
9,000 Cement 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
8,000 Iron & Steel
GDP (Konstan 2010) Growth
7,000 Transportation
6,000 Other Manufacture & Construction  Pandemic scenario requires an economic growth
Billion USD

5,000
4,000
Chemicals
of 5%-6% (2022-2025) and 6.3%-7.1% (2026-2030)
3,000
Textile, leather & footwear
to get away from ‘middle income trap’ to become
Fertilizer
2,000
Pulp & Paper
a developed country in 2045 with an implication
1,000
- Agriculture & Mining of a significant increase of energy demand.
2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
11
 HDI and Primary Energy
Human Development Index (HDI) vs. Energy Consumption

Japan

HDI ( ~ life expectancy at birth + adult

literacy & school enrolment + GNP per
capita at PPP) versus Primary Energy
Demand per Capita in tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe) pa [1 toe pa = 1.33 kWs].
HDI Indonesia 0.712 (2020) HDI :
• Education Shoulder in HDI vs energy-use curve at ~
• Health 3 toe pa [= 4 kWs] per capita
• Poverty

Indonesia (2020):
12
0.73 toe/capita/year
Primary Energy per Capita
11,630 kwh/toe
Japan 37,367 Kwh/cap
3.2 toe/cap
China 11,630 kwh/toe
28,048 Kwh/cap
2.4 toe/cap
World Average 11,630 kwh/toe
19,702 Kwh/cap
1.7 toe/cap
Indonesia
2020 0.53 toe/cap
8,514 kWh/cap
2045 2.2 toe/cap
615.9 Mtoe
2060 3 (2/3 x 4.5) toe/cap
990 Mtoe
 Resources Endowment

Potential Utilization
Energy
GW GW MW
Solar 3,295 0.22 217
Hydro 95 6.64 6,637
Bioenergy 57 2.28 2,284
Wind 155 0.15 154
Geothermal 24 2.29 2,293
Ocean 60 - -
Total 3,686 12 11,585
Projection of Energy Demand and Supply
and The Associated GHG Emissions
Final Energy Demand S1

Final Energy by Sector

500,000
445,217
450,000 424,642
404,999 Com-
400,000 375,720 mercial
350,000 341,760
305,706 Industry
300,000
261,078 Residential
250,000
201,019 Transport
200,000
146,799
150,000 Total
113,583
100,000
50,000
-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060

Toe/cap/yr 0.48 0.54 0.89 1.09 1.25 1.35
2020-2060 Average demand growth 2.8% per year
Average Elasticity 0.55
Final Energy Demand S1

Final Energy By Fuel Electricity

500,000 Biomas + ccs

445,217 Natural Gas + CCS
450,000 424,642
404,999 Coal + CCS
400,000 375,720
Biofuel
350,000 341,760
305,706 Biomass
300,000
261,078 H2
250,000 EV Solar PV
201,019
200,000 LPG
146,799
150,000 Natural Gas
113,583
100,000 Oil (Petroleum
Product)
50,000 Coal
- Total
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060

Share of Elect. 12% 16% 14% 20% 25% 35%
Electricity Demand S1

Electricity Demand
2,000
1,815
1,800
1,600
1,449
1,400 Industry
1,191 Commercial
1,200
982 Residential
1,000
TWh

Transport
808 Total
800 672
600
401
400 273 309
200 154

-
2,010 2,019 2,025 2,030 2,035 2,040 2,045 2,050 2,055 2,060

2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

kWh/cap/yr 658 1,012 1,093 1,362 2,209 2,586 3,079 3,675 4,421 5,493
Electric Power Generation S1

Power Generation Other RE

Natural gas w/ CCS
2,500
Nuclear
Biomass w/ CCS
2,017
2,000 Co-firing w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
1,610 Co-firing

1,500 Biofuel B-30 (include diesel)

1,323
Geothermal
TWh

1,091 Biomass
1,000 898 Wind
747 Solar
Hydro
500 445
354 Natural gas
292
170 Oil
Coal
-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Total
Electric Power Installed Capacity S1

Other RE
Power Capacity
Nuclear
800
760 Natural gas w/ CCS

700 Biomass w/ CCS

Co-firing w/ CCS

600 574 Coal w/ CCS

Co-firing
500 Biofuel B-30 (include diesel)
445
Geothermal
400
GW

Biomass
325
Wind
300
Solar
225
200 Hydro
164
Natural gas

100 77 Oil
47 61
28 Coal
- Total
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Electric Power Generation S1

Fuel Used in Power Sector

Other RE
600,000
535,331 Nuclear

500,000 Biofuel

426,073 Geothermal

400,000 Biomass
348,985
Wind
300,000 286,119 Solar
224,540 Hydro
200,000 192,855
Natural Gas
121,832 Oil
100,000 92,487 97,008
51,433 Coal
Total
-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Share of RE 17% 24% 26% 36% 43% 46% 54% 57% 60%
Primary Energy Supply S1

Primary Energy Supply

Other RE
900,000
824,486 Nuclear
800,000 Biofuel
726,113
Geothermal
700,000 651,614
Biomass
600,000 577,406
Wind
496,809 Solar
500,000
440,791
Hydro
400,000 348,466 H2
300,000 271,489 LPG
215,817 Natural Gas
200,000 151,763
Oil
100,000 Coal
- Total
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Primary Energy 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060

Toe/cap/year 0.65 0.80 1.18 1.59 2.01 2.50

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Share of RE 14% 23% 25% 31% 38% 44% 54% 58% 63%
GHG Emission S1

GHG by Sector
1,200,000
1,063,420
1,000,000
905,330 902,142
816,792
800,000 Power
720,026 704,941
Industrial
608,618 Commercial
600,000
MtCO2e

Residential
446,707 Transportation
398,880
400,000 Total

200,000 129,240

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

-200,000
SCENARIO HIGH (S2)
Final Energy Demand S2

Final Energy
600,000

497,284 Commercial
500,000 474,732
449,350 Industry
425,235
400,000 384,571 Residential
328,946 Transportation
300,000 Total
261,078
201,019
200,000
146,799
113,583
100,000

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060

Toe/cap/yr 0.48 0.54 0.89 1.23 1.39 1.51
Final Energy Demand S2

Final Energy By Fuel Electricity

600,000 Biomas + ccs

Natural Gas + CCS

497,284
500,000 474,732 Coal + CCS
449,350
425,235 Biofuel
400,000 384,571
Biomass
328,946
H2
300,000
261,078 EV Solar PV

201,019 LPG
200,000
146,799 Natural Gas
113,583 Oil (Petroleum
100,000 Product)

Coal
- Total
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Electricity Demand S2

Electricity Demand
2,500
2,145
2,000
1,776
Industry
1,540
1,500 Commercial
1,335
Residential
1,095
TWh

Transport
1,000 825 Total

500 401
273 309
154
-
2,010 2,019 2,025 2,030 2,035 2,040 2,045 2,050 2,055 2,060

2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

kWh/cap/yr 658 1,012 1,093 1,362 2,713 3,505 4,187 4,754 5,418 6,492
Electric Power Generation S2

Power Generation Other RE

3,000 Natural gas w/ CCS

Nuclear
Biomass w/ CCS
2,500 2,383
Co-firing w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
1,973
2,000 Co-firing
1,711 Biofuel B-30 (include diesel)
1,484 Geothermal
1,500
TWh

Biomass
1,217
Wind
1,000 917 Solar
Hydro

500 445 Natural gas

292 354
Oil
170
Coal
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
Electric Power Installed Capacity S2

Power Capacity Other RE

1,000 Nuclear

898 Natural gas w/ CCS

900
Biomass w/ CCS
800 Co-firing w/ CCS
704 Coal w/ CCS
700
Co-firing
600 575 Biofuel B-30 (include diesel)
Geothermal
500
GW

442 Biomass
400 Wind
305 Solar
300
202 Hydro
200 Natural gas

100 61 77 Oil
28 47
Coal
-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Total
Primary Energy Supply S2

Primary Energy Supply

Other RE
1,000,000 945,511
Nuclear
900,000 844,189 Biofuel
800,000 768,342 Geothermal
699,520 Biomass
700,000
594,717 Wind
600,000
Solar
494,882
500,000 Hydro
400,000 H2
348,466
LPG
300,000 271,489
215,817 Natural Gas
200,000 151,763 Oil
100,000 Coal
Total
-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Primary Energy 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060

Toe/cap/year 0.65 0.80 1.18 1.90 2.37 2.86
GHG Emission S1

GHG by Sector
1,400,000
1,226,358
1,200,000
1,074,324
1,000,000 941,809 955,730 Power
Industrial
799,207 Commercial
800,000 744,380
Residential
603,910 Transportation
600,000
480,670 Total
398,830
400,000

200,000 128,712

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Summary
2010 2019 2030 2040 2050 2060
Populasi 234 270 294 313 324 330
GDP/Cap - S1 USD/cap 3,224 4,192 6,198 10,082 15,804 23,847
GDP/Cap - S2 USD/cap 3,224 4,192 6,198 11,453 19,856 30,897
FE Consumption -S1 ktoe 113,583 146,799 261,078 341,760 404,999 445,217
FE Consumption -S2 ktoe 113,583 146,799 261,078 384,571 449,350 497,284
Electricity consumption -S1 TWh 154 273 401 808 1,191 1,815
Electricity consumption -S2 TWh 154 273 401 1,095 1,540 2,145
Share of electr in FE - S1 % 12% 16% 13% 20% 25% 35%
Share of electr in FE - S2 % 12% 16% 13% 24% 29% 37%
Electricity Supply -S1 TWh 170 284 445 898 1,323 2,017
Electricity Supply -S2 TWh 170 284 445 1,217 1,711 2,383
Primary Energy Supply - S1 ktoe 151,763 215,817 348,466 496,809 651,614 824,486
Primary Energy Supply - S2 ktoe 151,763 215,817 348,466 594,717 768,342 945,511
Final Energy per cap -S1 toe/cap/yr 0.48 0.54 0.89 1.09 1.25 1.35
Final Energy per cap -S2 toe/cap/yr 0.48 0.54 0.89 1.23 1.39 1.51
Primary Energy per cap -S1 toe/cap/yr 0.65 0.80 1.18 1.59 2.01 2.50
Primary Energy per cap -S2 toe/cap/yr 0.65 0.80 1.18 1.90 2.37 2.86
Electricy Cons per cap - S1 kWh/cap/yr 658 1,012 1,362 2,586 3,675 5,493
Electricy Cons per cap - S2 kWh/cap/yr 658 1,012 1,362 3,505 4,754 6,492
Energy Intensity - S1 toe/mil USD 201.0 190.9 191.2 157.7 127.3 104.6
Energy Intensity - S2 toe/mil USD 201.0 190.9 191.2 166.2 119.5 92.6
Energy Elasticity - S1 - 0.63 1.21 0.49 0.34 0.22
Energy Elasticity - S2 - 0.63 1.21 0.57 0.26 0.22
SECTORAL PROJECTIONS
Transport Sector Projection

Final Energy in Transportation

140,000
130,005131,930
126,514
121,588 Electricity
120,000 112,598 Bioavtur (100%)
Biogasoline (100%)
102,992
100,000 Biodiesel (100%)
91,921 Biomass
H2
80,000 75,551 EV Solar PV
Natural Gas
60,376 Avtur
60,000 Gasoline
ADO
40,000 33,656 Coal
Total w/o electricity
Total
20,000

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Industry Sector Projection

Final Energy of Industrial Sector

Electricity
200,000 Biomass ccs
182,167
180,000 172,959 Natural Gas ccs
165,770 Oil ccs
160,000 152,778
139,036 Coal ccs
140,000 Biofuel
123,437
120,000 Biomass
106,643
H2
100,000
81,410 LPG
80,000 Natural Gas
58,144
60,000 54,264 Oil
Coal
40,000
Total w/o
20,000 electricity
- Total
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
ResidentialSector Projection

Final Energy in Residential Sector

35,000
32,335 33,071 31,922
31,069 30,711 30,331 30,235
30,000 28,342 Electricity
Biofuel/Biogas
25,000 Biomass
21,143 21,625 H2
20,000 LPG
Natural Gas
Oil
15,000
Coal
Total w/o electricity
10,000 Total

5,000

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Commercial Sector Projection

Final Energy in Commercial Sector

12,000
10,986 11,207
10,552 10,768
10,070 10,334
10,000 9,577
Electricity
Biofuel
Biomass
8,000 7,407 H2
6,654 LPG
6,000 Natural Gas
Oil
4,520 Coal
4,000 Total w/o electricity
Total

2,000

-
2010 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Terimakasih
gelangdewi@gmail.com atau ucokwrs@tm.itb.ac.id
Item unit 2020* 2021* 2022** 2023*** 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Average
2020-2060
BAPPENAS (Deputy Ekonomi)
Pertumbuhan PDB
(Konstan 2010) % -2.07 3.69 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.53 6.23 6.98 6.73 6.48 5.6 4.98 4.48 5.34%

PDB (konstan 2010) USD 1,072 1,112 1,171 1,238 1,304 1,376 1,836 2,536 3,528 4,851 6,476 8,354 10,498
PDB Per Capita USD/cap 3,971 4,088 4,257 4,468 4,658 48,881 6,244 8,342 11,271 15,205 19,986 25,468 31,811
LPEM UI
Pertumbuhan PDB
% -2.02 3.38% 5.14% 6.85% 6.58% 6.26% 5.98% 5.85% 5.66% 5.54% 5.26% 4.93% 4.77%
(Konstan 2010)
PDB Per Capita USD/cap 4,012 4,116 4,287 4,538 4,793 5,048 6,532 8,387 10,794 13,818 17,627 22,255 27,928
KLHK LTS LCCR
Pertumbuhan PDB % -2.07% 3.36% 3.36% 3.36% 3.36% 3.36% 3.36% 5.93% 5.78% 5.58% 5.40% 5.23% 5.09%
(Konstan 2010)
KLHK NZE Sementara (Low Scenario)
Pertumbuhan PDB % -2.07% 3.69% 5.00% 5.20% 5.40% 6.00% 6.15% 6.00% 5.70% 5.20% 4.80% 4.30% 4.00% 5.15%
(Konstan 2010)
PDB (konstan 2010) USD 1,058 1,097 1,152 1,212 1,277 1,354 1,825 2,442 3,222 4,151 5,248 6,477 7,880
PDB Per Capita USD/cap 3,924 4,224 4,402 4,601 4,823 5,068 6,559 8,406 10,797 13,826 17,624 22,401 28,457

Rapat DEN (23 Mei 2022) untuk high scenario

Pertumbuhan PDB
(Konstan 2010) % -2.07% 3.69% 5.00% 5.20% 5.40% 6.00% 6.75% 6.98% 6.98% 6.48% 5.60% 4.98% 4.48% 5.9% - 6%

PDB Per Capita USD/cap 3,924 4,030 4,191 4,368 4,579 4,811 6,405 8,678 11,837 15,874 20,525 25,865 31,946
 Energy in Power

Main/Major Challenges:
• Energy security (accessible, available, affordable, acceptable, sustainable)
• Significant reduction of coal (coal phase down) – stranded assets issues
• Large deployment of coal + CCS – techn. readiness & locations
• De-dieselization, phase out diesel oil in power with an implication no
biofuels in diesel engine anymore
• Deployment of BECCS– technology readiness & locations
• Deployment of large fraction of intermittent RE (solar PV) – grid stability
and base load ‘issues’
• Nuclear ? – public acceptance issues
• Balance of trade (more RE technology imports)

40
• Retirement PLTU mengikuti schedule PLN, remaining coal dilengkapi CCS,
implementasi BECCS
• Perlu segera menetapkan vision NZE
• Segera mengubah dari vision menjadi road map (termasuk regulatory road
map dan pendukung lainnya)
• Penyusunan road-map perlu menekankan konsep menghindari fenomena
“locked-in” sistem energi fosil (terpaksa terus menggunakan karena terlanjur
sudah invest)
• Perlunya road map R&D dan manufacturing

41
 Estimasi Target Reduksi
Revised NDC 2030

Emisi GRK 2030 (juta ton CO2e) Reduksi 2030 (juta ton CO2e) % reduksi
Sektor
BAU CM1 CM1E CM2 CM2 CM1 CM1E CM2 CM2 CM1 CM1E CM2 CM2
(updated) (updated) updated (updated) (updated)

Energi 1,669 1,355 1,311 1,271 1,223 314 357.8 398 446 10.9% 12.5% 13.9% 15.5%

IPPU 70 67 63 66.35 66 3 7 4 4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Pertanian 120 110 110 115.80 116 10 10 4 4 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

FOLU 714 217 217 36.46 22 497 497 678 692 17.3% 17.3% 23.6% 24.1%

Limbah 296 285 256 269.50 256 11 40 27 40 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.4%

Total 2,869 2,034 1,957 1,759 1,683 835 912 1,110 1,186 29.1% 31.8% 38.7% 41.3%

42
Methodology

43
 METHODOLOGY
EndUse - ExSS
EndUse – ExSS Model
(GAMS, General Algebraic Modeling System) v 24.0

The AIM-ExSS model is used to estimate rational projections The AIM-EndUse model is a bottom up model developed by CREP ITB,
of energy demand (electricity) by the user side (industrial, NIES (Japan), and Mizuho (Japan) for solving linear optimization
commercial, residential, and transportation). equations for technology selection (up to unit level) with a minimum
cost approach and some restrictions (capability and availability of
Socio-economic indicators (input parameters to ExSS Modeling) energy supplies, technology penetration, emissions targets, etc.).
In the service demand projection, population growth, economic growth, economic
structure (industry), enduse of technology (electric appliances) used by consumers,
and consumer life style are energy drivers for the development of service demand.
  Unit 2010 2030 2050 2060 2030/2010 2050/2010 2060/2010
Population Million peoples 238.52 296.41 335.35 330,000 1.24 1.41 1.41

Passenger transport demand bil. Pass –km 937,606 3,250,907 3,677,997 5,688,138 3.47 3.92 6.07

Freight transport bil. Ton-km 435,156 2,535,818 7,259,895 1,700,341 5.83 16.68 3.91
Pass. Transport Specific Energy
Consumption TJ/mill-pass km 0.8 0.64 0.51 0.45 0.80 0.64 0.56

Freight Transport Specific

Energy Consumption
TJ/mill-ton km 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.82 0.71 0.65 4
 Energy – Economics Model
•Export •Government expenditure •Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio
•Import ratio •Labor productivity •Demographic composition
Number of •Average number of family
workers occupants
Labor Module
Labor
demand
Wage Average
Macro-economy and Income Population and Household
working time
Industry Module Number Module
Private
Output consumption Time-use and Population
Consumption Module
Number of
•Breakdown of household
consumption

•Population distribution
•Floor area per Commercial Transport •Trip per parson
output
Building Module Module •Transport distance
•Modal share
Floor area of Passenger and freight
commercial buildings transport demand

Energy demand Energy Demand & GHG

GHG emissions
Emissions Module

•Energy service demand generation unit Main endogenous Exogenous variables

•Energy efficiency Module and parameters
variables
•Fuel share
•Emission factor
Flow of endogenous variables Input
4
 Methodology

Back casting Approaches

1. 2. 3.
Setting Collection of Collection of
Framework the base year LC Measures
information Information

5. 4.
Estimation of Estimation of
Snapshots WITH Snapshots
LC Measures WITHOUT LC
Measures

1. Driving Force Settings

2. Final Energy Demand
3. Primary Energy Demand
4. GHGs emission

46
 METHODOLOGY
EndUSe Model
Technology selection focus on : Energy Consumption
Abatement cost curve (ACC)
 Direct Coal Fired
 Biomass  Coal

Service demand 
Supercritical
Ultra


Co-firing
Geothermal


Natural gas
Oil
- CAPEX
- OPEX
Supercritical  Biomass
power
 Electricity  IGCC
 Hydro power  Geothermal
 Combined cycle
 Solar power
 Hydro
 Coal w/ CCS  Solar
 Wind power  Wind
 Biomass w/ CCS

(BECCS)
Nuclear power  Nuclear
 Other renewable

Pivot diagram (EndUse result)

Socioeconomic Scenario 140

(BAU & CM scenario) Energy Database Technology Database 120

BL - MtCO2eq
CM1 - MtCO2eq
CM2 - MtCO2eq
CM3 - MtCO2eq
100

80

 Technology lifetime 60

 Energy price  Energy consumption 40

 Population growth  Efficiency

 Energy type
20

 Economic growth  Share

0

 Energy constrain
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Life style  Technology price

 Emission factor
 Electricity demand  Investment cost and OM cost
 Fuel availability
 Technological availability

Selection of technology and estimation of power generation capacity need to be done to meet
service demand (Hibino et al., 1996) and estimate the energy demands and the associated GHG
emissions released from the operation of the selected technology (Mikiko et al., 2000 ). 47