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Indian Eco
Indian Eco
TRADE
2013-14
2001-12
1950-51
FOREIGN TRADE PERFORMANCE
VALUE OF EXPORTS
1950 TO EARLY 1970s - import substitution became the keystone of development
strategy in the late 1950s. The value of exports as a percentage of GDP declined from 6% to
4%.
Early 1970s to 1980s - Value of exports as a % of GDP picked up after 1971-72 and
increased till the end of 1970s. The decade 1980s can be viewed as a period of growing
uneasiness with the policies of excessive protectionism.
0%
21% 14% 2 agricultural and allied
% products
ores and minerals
manufactured goods
crude and petroleum
products
other and unclassified
items
63%
COMPOSITION OF
IMPORTS
• The size or volume of imports is determined
by the government policy has been to import
those goods which can accelerate the pace of
economic development and not to waste
foreign reserves on the imports of
unnecessary goods . Imports have undergone
various changes since independence.
VALUE OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (1950-51 TO
2014-15)
YEAR EXPORTS IMPORTS TRADE RATE OF CHANGE
BALANCE EXPORTS IMPORTS
1950-51 1269 1273 -4 24.9 -1.5
1960-61 1346 2353 -1007 0.3 16.7
1970-71 2031 2162 -131 8.8 3.5
1980-81 8486 15869 -7383 6.8 40.2
1990-91 18143 24075 -5932 9.2 13.5
2000-01 44560 50536 -5976 21.0 1.7
2005-06 103092 149167 -46076 23.4 33.8
2006-07 126360 185747 -59387 22.6 24.5
2007-08 163132 251654 -88522 29.0 35.5
2008-09 185295 303696 -118401 13.6 20.7
2009-10 178751 268373 -109622 -3.5 -5.0
2010-11 251136 369769 -118633 40.5 28.2
2011-12 305964 489319 183356 21.8 32.3
2012-13 300401 490739 190336 -1.8 0.3
2013-14 314405 450200 135795 4.7 -8.3
2014-15 241154 351206 110052 4.0 3.6
TRADE PERFOMANCE
Exports Import Term of
trade
US $ terms Rupee Quantum Unit US $ term Rupee Quantum Unit value Net income
term index value term index index
index
2001- -0.6 2.7 0.8 1.0 2.9 6.2 4.0 2.8 -1.4 -0.9
02
2004- 30.8 27.9 11.2 14.9 42.7 39.5 17.2 18.9 -3.4 8.4
05
2007- 29.0 14.7 4.9 5.1 35.5 20.4 14.1 1.9 3.1 11.2
08
2010- 40.5 35.2 15.2 13.8 28.2 23.4 8.0 13.0 0.7 15.9
11
2011- 21.8 28.3 8.9 20.2 32.3 39.3 -20.9 74.9 -31.3 -25.2
12
2012- -1.8 11.5 7.9 6.0 0.3 13.8 4.1 8.0 -1.9 5.8
13
2013- 4.7 16.6 5.9 9.9 -8.3 1.7 -10.7 12.9 -2.7 3.1
14
2014- 3.4 5.0 4.8 3.6 1.5 3.9 0.8 3.3 0.2 5.0
15
Trade performance of
year 2014-15 shows
• Its is useful to decompose the growth rates in terms of changes
in quantity and price which are best indicated by the quantum
and unit value indicates that reflects terms of trade . The
changes in quantum index for exports broadly corresponds
directionally with nominal growth in US dollar terms there
was negative growth as against a high positive growth rate in
the quantum index.
• In the case of the quantum index term of imports ,there was a
greater directional divergence with the nominal growth rates
expressed in US dollar and rupee terms .
• Net terms of trade has shown +0.2 % changes and income
terms of trade has shown + 0.5 % change in 2014-15.
Balance of payment
Balance of payment accounts witnessed a huge deficit of $599 million in year 1974-75
due to substantial increase in price of crude oil (by about 4 time).
However this deficit again turned into surplus in the year 1975-76.
Stage 2: 1976-77 to 1979-80
This was the golden period for India's foreign trade.
• Gains from balance of payments rose to Rs 3082 crore.
• India had current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP.
• Foreign exchange reserves were 6.72 percent .
• Capital account witnessed a surplus of $968.6 million.
Reasons:
Increase in the output of wheat & rice due to Green Revolution.
Rapid increse in remittances from Indian workers working in Gulf countries.
Rise in donestic production of oil & machine tools etc.
More tourists visiting India.
Stage 3: 1980-81 to 1989-90
This stage covers the sixth and seventh five year plans. This decade is also known as
decade of difficulties in balance of payments.
The average deficit during sixth five year plan in BOP account was $4813 million which
was .56% of GDP.
The current account deficit became 1.3% of GDP during sixth plan period.
The current account deficit became 2.4% of GDP in seventh plan period.
India became the third largest debted country in the world after Brazil and Mexico.
India sold gold to bank of England as part of settlement account.
Reasons:
Second oil shock of 1979-80 that increased the price of oil drastically.
Remittances declined
Foreign aid reduced
Inflation grew
Political instability increased
Stage 4: 1991-92 to 2001-02
It covers the eighth five year plan & ninth five year plan.
In 1991 current account deficit was of Rs 17366 crore. Foreign exchange reserves were only
Rs 4388 crore. It was a situation of Foreign exchange crisis.
In 1991 to deal with the adverse current account position of India many policy reforms
were introduced ; devaluation decontrol & liberalisation .
A new system of exchange rate management liberalisation of import licensing & tariff
reduction were also introduced.
Eighth plan (1992-97) period:
The impact was that balance of payments as a % of GDP showed a surplus of 1.37%
during this period.
Foreign exchange reserves were able to finance around 7 months' imports.
The current account deficit declined to $3716.4 million in 8th plan period from $5823.4
million in seventh plan.
The current account deficit was 1.12 % of GDP.
Capital account as % of GDP showed a surplus of 2.69%
Ninth five year plan (1997-02):
Balance of payments account witnessed a handsome surplus of $6552 million during
this plan period which was 1.68% of GDP.
The improvement in BOP account was made possible largely becausecof dynamism in
export performance and sustained buoyancy in invisible receipts.
However this surplus declined to $5868 million in 2000-01 due to some pressures;
• Sharp downturn in the international equity prices
• Successive rise in interest rates in USA and Europe.
But the situation eased because of funds available under Indian Millennium Deposits.
The last year of the ninth plan(2001-02) recorded surplus in current account of BOP at Rs
6719 crore.
Reasons for good performance in 2001-02 were:
• Increase in software services
• Reduced non oil import demands.
Stage 5: 2002-03 - till date
It covers the tenth eleventh and twelfth five year plan .
Tenth plan period (2002-07):
the first year of 10th plan (2002-03) balance of payment on current account was in
surplus at Rs 19987 crore.
In 2003-04 balance of payment on current account was in surplus at Rs 47952 crore.
The current account reverted to deficit in
2004-05 at Rs (12174)
2005-06 at Rs (43737)
2006-07 at Rs(44383)
Reasons:
• Trade deficit on account of rising oil prices in 2003-04 & 2004-05
• Rise in international prices of petroleum products & gold.
Capital account surplus as a % of GDP increased to 3.48 % during this period.
On the whole tenth plan perion was quite comfortable as far as balance of payments is
concerned as capital account increased at significant rate leading to significant
increase in balance of payments.
• Eleventh plan period:
2009-10
2011-12
Source : Econonic survey 2012-13
Trade policy of govt.
of india
Pre-1991 Trade Policy
In 80’s, export
promotion schemes
were implemented
In 1960’s and 70’s, such as cash
import were partly compensatory
liberalized with scheme, schemes of
Second year several conditions
plan(highly restrictive epz etc
policy)
Inward looking
development
strategy(import
substitution )
The 1991 Trade Policy
In order to
liberalize imports and boost exports, the Government of India for the first time
introduced the Indian Exim Policy on April I, 1992.
In order to bring stability and continuity, the Export Import Policy was
made for the duration of 5 years.
the Central Government reserves the right in public interest to make any
amendments to the trade Policy in exercise of the powers conferred by Section-5
of the Act.
Exim Policy (1997-2002)
FEATURES
Special incentives to
Reduction in custom duties
agricultural products
World bank estimate suggests that 53 million more people would be fall into the
poverty net this year and over a billion people would go chronically hungry
There was declining demand in the develo9ped world and the need was felt to set
in motion strategies and policy measurses which would catalyse the growth of
exports
OBJECTIVES OF FTP(2009-14)
SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES