Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Cryptovaluation
Cryptovaluation
Cryptovaluation
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke University and NBER
Purposes of money:
Primary
• Unit of Account: A way to compare the value of various goods and services
• Medium of Exchange: Allows for non-barter transactions.
Secondary
• Store of Value: Allows value to be retained – even if partially – rather than complete
decay (e.g. storing food).
• Transfer of Value: Ease of transfer of value and to defer value.
https://www.coinhills.com/market/exchange/rank-for/btc /
https://www.coinhills.com/market/exchange/rank-for/btc /
Beware of exchanges
• Largely unregulated. This is the reason that the SEC has blocked the
formation of ETFs based on “physical bitcoin”
• Exchange often holds your keys and they pool all the keys – acting like
a bank. In a usual crypto trade, every transaction generates a new
private key. If “off-chain”, then private keys are shifted between
owners in the exchanges’ database.
• Holding the keys invites hacking attacks.
• We have already talked about the 850,000 BTC theft of Mt. Gox
Beware of exchanges
• There are advantages to these off chain transactions. They can be
done instantly and at every low cost (no miners no delay in writing to
a blockchain). This is what Coinbase.com does. Their exchange is
GDAX.
• Many worry that exchanges are a centralizing force
• In the future, exchanges may become more distributed. An atomic
swap is a cross chain transaction*
https://www.coindesk.com/tether-claims-30-million-stable-token-stolen-attacker/
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 11
Exchanges
https://qz.com/1149772/the-murky-relationship-between-bitfinex-and-tether-is-raising-suspicions/
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 12
Exchanges
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/technology/bitcoin-bitfinex-tether.html
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Exchanges
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/technology/bitcoin-bitfinex-tether.html
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 14
Exchanges
https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Final-Tether-Consulting-Report-9-15-17_Redacted.pdf
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Exchanges
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitconnect-ponzi-scheme-no-sympathy-from-crypto-community
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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https://twitter.com/3PSboyd/status/954140748135383040
Exchanges
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitconnect-closes-virtually-its-entire-operation-bcc-token-drops-87
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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https://bitconnect.co/system-news/95/bitconnect-update-regarding-the-changes-to-lending-and-exchange-functions/
Cryptocurrencies: Trading
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https://bitconnect.co/system-news/95/bitconnect-update-regarding-the-changes-to-lending-and-exchange-functions/
Exchanges
https://youtu.be/kbR1SXIje1U
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Exchanges
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitconnect/
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges Only bitcoin???
(Thanks Nikhil Arun)
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https://coincheck.com/
Exchanges
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cryptocurrency-worth-530-million-missing-from-japanese-exchange-1516988190
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/coincheck-stolen-534-mln-nem-were-stored-on-low-security-hot-wallet
Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42850194
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
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Exchanges
https://nem.io/wp-content/themes/nem/files/NEM_techRef.pdf
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Exchanges
Relatively little impact on NEM price –
because the hack was not a hack of the
NEM blockchain
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Exchanges
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Comparison_of_exchanges
https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/25/free-cryptocurrency-trading-app/
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Cryptoassets
Asset or Commodity or Currency or Collectible
• Asset : Asset generates or is expected to generate cash flows in the future.
• Commodity: A commodity derives its value from its use as raw material to
meet a fundamental need, whether it be energy, food or shelter. Value can
be established looking at supply and demand.
• Currency: A currency is a medium of exchange that you use to denominate
cash flow. Currencies have no cash flows and cannot be valued, but they
can be priced against other currencies.
https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptoasset-valuations-ac83479ffca7
Cryptocurrencies: Valuation
Many “theories”
• Replacement for Gold. Many similarities to gold:
– No centralized supply
– Costly to mine
– World currency
• Also, there are some advantages to cryptos:
– Easy to transport
– Cheap to store
– Not susceptible to a supply shock
• However, gold has direct usefulness (jewelry, technology, dental)
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 56
Cryptocurrencies: Valuation
Many “theories”
• Mining cost benefit equilibrium. This mixes some of the other
theories. The idea is that people will not mine bitcoin unless it is
profitable to do so. So the cost of the marginal miner is the floor for
coin price.
• If price drops, then mining decreases as it is not worth buying a
mining machine and paying the electrical cost
• However, in contrast to gold, decreases in hash power simply cause
the difficulty to decrease (it does not impact the coinbase supply)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-bitcoin-is-dwarfing-housing-and-dot-com-bubbles-2017-08-30
Data from Aug 2017 when Bitcoin price ($4,000) Campbell R. Harvey 2018 59
Cryptocurrencies: Valuation
Many “theories”
• Relative value. The idea is that you fit a regression model to the price
of the crypto versus other cryptos.
• The model delivers a fitted price. If the fitted price is greater than the
market price, then the crypto is relatively “under valued”
• The key word is relative. It is possible that both are over valued or
both are undervalued
Bitcoin Is Evil
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 67
Speaking of mind-bending, economics professor Cam
Harvey of Duke University did a presentation this
Cryptocurrencies: Education afternoon on the blockchain, which is the foundation of
Bitcoin. I have been friends with Cam for many years, but
it has been an online friendship. He was the first to do
• Challenges: Nobel Laureate #2 research and analysis of the inverted yield curve, and I’ve
learned a great deal from talking and writing with him.
Cam came over when the day session finished, and we
began to talk about some aspects of blockchain
technology. Harry Markowitz, the Nobel Prize laureate
who created Modern Portfolio Theory, walked over; and
after a few minutes he began to challenge Cam on the
mathematical impossibility of what he thought Cam was
talking about. It was fascinating watching these two
genius professors talk about math and ideas, and
eventually Harry got a handle on the process Cam was
describing.
But I will confess a small pleasure at watching one of the
greatest mathematical economists of our time wrestle
with the concept of the blockchain. I have to tell you it
took me a while to get my head around the concept, too,
and it took Harry only five minutes.
Campbell R. Harvey 2018 68
Cryptocurrencies: Education
• Challenges: Nobel Laureate #3