Elections and Public Opinion

Elections

Elections

* In democracies people vote.

Universal, Free, Equal, Secret,
Meaningful.

* In autocracies they are

instruments to claim legitimacy
 Elections North
26
• NO ELECTORAL SYSTEM IS
PERFECT

East
17 mars West
42

South
15
 Elections North
26
• PLURALITY VOTING

East
17 mars West
42

South
15
 Elections North
26
• PLURALITY VOTING: JUST SEE WHO
GETS MOST VOTES.—FPP–
• WOULD THIS MAKE JUSTICE TO THE
East
mars West
MAJORITY?
17 42

South
15
 Elections EAST

17
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS

PREFERENCES SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH

North
26

East West WEST WEST WEST EAST

17 42

South
15
 Elections EAST

17
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS

PREFERENCES SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH

North
26

East West WEST WEST WEST EAST

17 42

South
15
 Elections EAST

17+15=32
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS

PREFERENCES SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH

North
26

East West WEST WEST WEST EAST

17 42

South
15
 Elections EAST

17+15=32
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS

PREFERENCES SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH

North
26

East West WEST WEST WEST EAST

17 42

South
15
 Elections EAST

17+15=32
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

32+26=58
• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS
PREFERENCES
SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

North
NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH
26

East West
17 42
WEST WEST WEST EAST

South
15
 Elections EAST

17+15=32
NORTH

26
SOUTH

15
WEST

42

32+26=58
• INSTANT RUN OFF: RANK VOTERS
PREFERENCES
SOUTH SOUTH EAST NORTH

North
NORTH EAST NORTH SOUTH
26

East West
17 42
WEST WEST WEST EAST

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHO ARE THE
TWO THAT GO TO THE FIRST ROUND?

North
EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
26 17 26 15 42

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHO ARE THE
EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
TWO THAT GO TO THE FIRST ROUND?
17 26 15 42

North
26

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHO ARE THE EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
TWO THAT GO TO THE FIRST ROUND?
17 26+15+17= 15 42
58

North
26

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHAT IF EAST INSTEAD
OF VOTING FOR ITSELF VOTES FOR SOUTH?

North
EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
26 17 26 15 42

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHAT IF EAST INSTEAD
OF VOTING FOR ITSELF VOTES FOR SOUTH? EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST

0 26 15+17=32 42

North
26

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHAT IF EAST EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
INSTEAD OF VOTING FOR ITSELF VOTES FOR
SOUTH? IT MIGHT MAKE SOUTH THE 0 0 15+17=32 42
CHAMPION OR AT LEAST ELIMINATE NORTH
IT MIGHT WIN
DESPITE BEING
THE LEAST
North
POPULATED!!
26

East West
17 42

South
15
 Elections
• MULTIPLE RUN OFFS: WHAT IF EAST
INSTEAD OF VOTING FOR ITSELF VOTES FOR
SOUTH? IT MIGHT MAKE SOUTH THE
CHAMPION OR AT LEAST ELIMINATE NORTH

North
EAST NORTH SOUTH WEST
26 0 0 15+17=32 42

IT MIGHT WIN
East West DESPITE BEING
17 42 THE LEAST
POPULATED!!

South
15
 Elections
• CONDORCERT: EACH AGAINST THE
OTHER AND WHOMEVER WINS
MORE ELECTIONS WINS: 6 elections.

North
EAST WEST SOUTH NORTH
26

West
East 17
42

South
15
Elections

• The sad conclusion is that there

is not a perfect system.
Mathematically it is impossible
to do justice.

• We live in an imperfect world

 Elections

• How the government is elected depends on the type of government of each

country.
Elections

• IF THERE IS A SEPARATION
BETWEEN EACH BRANCH OF
GOVERNMENT ---

• YOU WILL HAVE ELECTIONS FOR

THE LEGISLATIVE AND
ELECTIONS FOR THE EXECUTIVE
They might end in the hands of different
parties.

Legislativ
Executive Judiciary
e
Elections

IN PARLIAMENTARIAN SYSTEMS
THERE IS NOT A SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE AND Legislative
JUDICIARY
THE LEGISLATIVE. and Executive

The EXECUTIVE would come from

the Parliament itself.
Elections

IN PARLIAMENTARIAN SYSTEMS
THERE IS NOT A SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE AND Legislative JUDICIARY
THE LEGISLATIVE.

The EXECUTIVE would come from

the Parliament itself.

Executive
 Elections

Presidential Republics

Some have one general and then

a run-off between the two most
voted candidates if no-one gets
more than 50% in the first election.

Others will have one general

election, first past the post.
 Elections

Presidential Republics

YOU VOTE FOR THE PERSON, although

he might be affiliated with a political
party.
Elections

• The president of South Korea is

elected via a single-round
plurality voting system, for a
term of five years. Incumbent
and former presidents are
ineligible to seek re-election.
Elections

• In PARLIAMENTARY systems you

vote for a party and the PARTY
THAT GETS THE MAJORITY IN
PARLIAMENT is the one that is
going to DECIDE who is going to
govern the country.
 Elections

Elections in Parliamentary Systems

There are two main types of

electoral processes in a
Parliamentarian system:
majoritarian system, and the
proportional system.
 Elections

Elections in Parliamentary Systems

The proportional system takes all

the votes in the country won by each
political party and according to the %
won allocates seats in parliament.

The party with most seats designates

the next government.
 Elections

Elections in Parliamentary Systems

A second way is to divide the

country into small units: districts.

In each district, parties compete

for the simple majority. If they
won, they get a seat in
parliament.
Elections
• Some have a mix system where
they have majoritarian and
proportional lists to parliament.

• Germany
Elections in the USA

• American presidents aren’t

elected based on how many
people vote for them, but on
how many votes they receive in
the Electoral College
 Elections in the USA

There are currently 538 state

Electors in total, divided among the
states depending on population size.

So, Alaska, with a population of just

741,894 gets only three votes in the
Electoral College, while mighty
California, with its nearly 40 million
souls, carries 55 votes.
 Elections in USA
50.1% in 49.9% in California
California California 55 electorates

• Each state is allocated a # of

electorates. There are a total of
538 so the candidate that passes
270 is the new President of the
USA.
ALL 55 ELECTORATES GO TO ORANGE PARTY
Elections in the USA
France

• Two rounds. The first one is a

run off between all candidates
and the second is only between
the two most popular.

• A Plurality of Votes election gives

us the winner.
 Party Identification

• Party identification: Socio Economic

Status

• Ideological Orientation

• Gender

• Religion
 Party Identification

• Party identification: Socio Economic

Status

• The RICH vote for a party that

preserves its privileges, the POOR vote
for a party that fights for its rights…..

• There are exceptions.

 Public Opinion
3. Sources of Party Identification and
Ideological Orientation

• Party identification: Socio Economic

Status

• Ideological Orientation.

• Gender

• Religion
 Public Opinion
3. Sources of Party Identification and
Ideological Orientation

• Party identification: Socio Economic

Status

• Ideological Orientation.

• Gender

• Religion
 Public Opinion
3. Sources of Party Identification and
Ideological Orientation

• Party identification: Socio Economic

Status

• Ideological Orientation.

• Gender

• Religion
Yoon Suk-
yeol
 Public Opinion

4. Candidate Evaluation

• Mass Media

• Perception of Government’s
Economic Performance
 Public Opinion

5. Voter Turnout

• What moves people to vote, or

not.
Public Opinion

5. Campaign Money

• What moves people to vote, or

not.

• “he steals but gets things done”

Public Opinion vs. Political
Culture
2. A distinction not to forget

• Party identification
• Feelings towards one another
• Ideological Orientation that are of a longer duration.
Deep seated values.
 Public Opinion

* In addition to voting, polling

could be a way in which we
communicate with those that
govern.
 Public Opinion

* How a population views and

evaluates leaders, or policies. It is
impossible to ask everybody, and
focus on person obviously is not
good enough.

* We are looking at the ‘collective

wisdom’… or opinion at least.
 Public Opinion

* Sample is the number of people

that respond to a poll.

* … but it can be too small, too

narrow: genders, age,
geographical location need to be
present, or too difficult.
 Public Opinion

6. Public Opinion Polling: errors

What would they think about

taxes? ….
 Public Opinion

6. Public Opinion Polling: errors

How many of you would be

excluded?
 Public Opinion

6. Public Opinion Polling

* Interviewers bias. People tend

to answer what they think they
are expected to say.

* Push poll. Would you vote for

candidate x if you knew he is
corrupt?
 Public Opinion

6. Public Opinion Polling

* Might not mean anything… yet

we still use them.
* Government would make
decision based on Opinion Polls;
or justify actions; or just don’t do
anything.