Société Anonyme Marocaine de l’Industrie du Raffinage (Samir)

Investment Profile
November 2020
Table of Contents

 Executive Summary
 Present State of Affairs
 Valuation Summary
o DCF Summary
o SOTP Valuation
o Refinery
o LPG and Distribution Units
o Transport, Logistics and Storage Business
 Company Overview
 Industry Trends
 Appendix
 Refining projects pipeline in Africa
 Peer Valuation
 Transaction Multiples
 Macroeconomic Profile - Morocco

2
Appendix

3
Product Pricing and Outlook

Source: Industry Sources 4

Replacement Cost Analysis - Refinery Projects Pipeline in Africa

Source: Industry Sources 5

Consumption Drivers – Morocco vs. Rest of Africa

Source: Industry Sources 6

Peer List for Refinery Business

Market Cap EV Refining Capacity GRM

Company HQ NCI*
(US$ mn) (US$ mn) (mn tons per year) (US$ /bl)

Tupras Turkey 14.5 2,609 4,235 11.3 3.7

Motor Oil Greece 11.4 1,126 2,092 7.9 6.3
Hellenic Petroleum Greece 5.8 - 12 1,623 3,886 17.0 8.9
Neste Finland NA 43,873 44,498 14.0 10.6
PKN Orlen Poland NA 12,062 9,001 16.3 5.2
Saras Italy 11.7 487 890 15.0 4.5
Bazan Group Israel 9 925 2,011 9.7 5.9
Pbf Energy Inc US 12.8 649 4,550 20.3 8.5
Hollyfrontier Corp US NA 3,266 5,798 10.5 16.0
Valero Energy US NA 16,400 28,790 72.4 9.7
Average 7.9
Median 7.4

Source: Bloomberg; * NCI: Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) is a measure of the sophistication of an oil refinery, where more complex refineries are able to produce lighter, more heavily refined and valuable products from a barrel of oil. 7
Peer Valuation (1/2)
Trading Multiples - Refinery

Source: Bloomberg; As of October 16, 2020 8

Peer Valuation (2/2)
Transactions Summary

Source: Bloomberg; As of October 16, 2020 9

SAMIR – Historical KPIs - Inputs

Crude oil supply (2010 - 2014)  

Units (In KT) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Arabian Light 2,991 2,944 2,618 1,996

Arab Medium - - - 548

Sirri Light 144 - - -

Ural 787 510 1,063 928

Kirkuk 1,234 1,447 319 323

Zafiro 132 - - -

Iranian Light 86 - - -

Castilla - 144 - -

Basrah Light - - 1,236 1,256

Other Crude - - 251 139

Total 5,374 5,045 - 5,487 5,190

Source: Bloomberg 10
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Inputs

Crude oil supply (2010 - 2014)  

Units (In 000 bbl) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Arabian Light 21,920 21,598 19,208 14,644

Arab Medium - - - 3,944

Sirri Light 1,058 - - -

Ural 5,683 3,684 7,686 6,707

Kirkuk 9,052 10,560 2,320 2,348

Zafiro 951 - - -

Iranian Light 628 - - -

Castilla - 963 - -

Basrah Light - - 8,828 8,971

Other Crude - - 1,824 1,101

Total 39,292 36,805 - 39,866 37,715

Source: Bloomberg 11
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Stock Import

Finished Goods Import (2010 - 2014)        

Units (In 000 tons) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gasoil 50 ppm 349 76 - 348
Gasoline 50 - - -
Bitumen 8 - - -
Fuel - - 43 47
Lubes - - 2 -
Total 407 76 - 45 395

Feedstock & Blendstock Import (2010 - 2014)      

Units (In 000 tons) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LCO 147 594 680 558
HSGO 79 - - -
ATR 686 1,260 - -
MTBE & Butane 42 39 18 24
VGO 144 365 483 576
Fuel 492 370 - -
SRFO - - 410 125
Total 1,590 2,628 - 1,591 1,283

Source: Bloomberg 12
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Supply Cost

Supply Cost (2010 - 2014)  

Units (In $/bbl) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Arabian Light 79.93 109.72

Sirri Light 74.52 0.00

Ural 81.71 107.42

Kirkuk 80.24 107.83

Zafiro 74.20 0.00

Iranian Light 75.34 0.00

Castilla 0.00 108.47

Average Price 77.66 108.36 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Bloomberg 13
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Product Sales

Source: Bloomberg 14
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Product Sales

Source: Bloomberg 15
SAMIR – Historical KPIs – Product Sales

Source: Bloomberg 16